Kazakhstan’s Path to Carbon Neutrality Could Run Through the Gulf

The Gulf states hold a unique position among Kazakhstan's international partners, as demonstrated by Kazakhstan's involvement in the 2023 Central Asia-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Summit. Addressing the summit in Jeddah, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev highlighted the potential for synergy between Central Asia’s resources and the Gulf states’ economic innovation. He emphasised the vast opportunities in this relationship and their collective capacity to elevate their multifaceted partnership.

At the summit, discussions centred around expanding energy collaboration, with a focus on advancements in green energy and the modernisation of power generation infrastructure. President Tokayev reaffirmed Kazakhstan's willingness to engage in close partnerships with Persian Gulf energy companies.

Decarbonisation policy is an emerging development priority for Kazakhstan, reflecting global trends in sustainability and climate action. The transition to a low-carbon economy presents a significant challenge, requiring comprehensive measures for the technological modernisation of the national economy, especially in the extractive industries.

At the Climate Ambition Summit in December 2020, Kazakhstan announced its goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. This commitment was formalised in February 2023 with the adoption of the Strategy for Achieving Carbon Neutrality by 2060.The strategy seeks to balance carbon dioxide emissions with removals from the atmosphere, with an interim target to decrease greenhouse gas emissions by 15 percent by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. This reduction could be increased to 25 percent, provided international assistance is secured for the decarbonisation efforts. 

Transitioning to a decarbonised future requires a fundamental shift away from Kazakhstan’s coal-dependent energy system. The strategy estimates a total investment of $610 billion, with over half of this funding reallocated from conventional industries to more sustainable sectors. The remaining portion will be sourced from newly established investment channels.

Prominent financial organisations, including the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), remain committed to backing decarbonisation projects. Simultaneously, Kazakhstan is actively enacting reforms to encourage private sector investment in renewable energy sources.

Recognising the financial and technological commitments needed for decarbonisation, Kazakhstan is diligently fostering international partnerships. This approach is yielding support from key partners such as the EU, China, the World Bank, and the EBRD, thereby attracting further investment and the adoption of cutting-edge technologies. But additional sources of climate financing are needed—the Gulf is stepping up its commitments.

In December 2023, the sixth session of the Kazakh-Saudi intergovernmental commission convened in Riyadh to explore new opportunities for collaboration. During the meeting, ACWA Power, a Saudi company, announced plans to invest approximately $10 billion in Kazakhstan's green energy sector. This investment would support the growth of wind and hydrogen energy, thereby aiding Kazakhstan's broader decarbonisation efforts.

In March 2024, Kazakhstan and Saudi Arabia formalised this partnership for the ACWA Power project through an intergovernmental agreement, outlining their commitment to build wind power plants with a combined capacity of 1 GW, equipped with an integrated energy storage system. The project's initial investment is expected to exceed $1.8 billion. Additionally, both nations have partnered to establish a shared innovation hub in Riyadh, designed to promote Kazakhstan's IT solutions and burgeoning startups in the Middle Eastern market.

Kazakhstan is also working on its collaborations with the UAE on solar and wind initiatives. A significant milestone in this partnership was the signing of an investment deal with Masdar in 2022, aimed at building a 1 GW wind farm in the Zhambyl region. This project incorporates advanced energy storage solutions, enhancing the reliability and stability of Kazakhstan's power grid while increasing the share of renewables in the nation's energy mix and reducing carbon emissions.

Kazakhstan's regional prominence stems from its position as Central Asia’s largest economy and a leading hydrocarbon exporter, attracting roughly 60 percent of FDI inflows into Central Asia. Recognising its responsibility to curb greenhouse gas emissions, the country has pioneered the region’s first carbon trading system, creating economic incentives for businesses to decrease their emissions.

With an estimated renewable energy capacity of 1 trillion kilowatt-hours, Kazakhstan also shares its expertise with neighbouring countries, contributing to broader regional environmental improvements.

Kazakhstan is also strengthening green cooperation with Central Asian neighbors through initiatives like the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea, which addresses environmental degradation, and the Central Asian Regional Environmental Center, which supports cross-border water and biodiversity projects. In 2024, The Presidents of Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan signed a strategic agreement on the intersystem integration of the energy systems of the three countries. Collaborative efforts are also emerging through the Central Asian Regional Environmental Center (CAREC), facilitating cross-border projects focused on water resource management and safeguarding biodiversity.

Concurrently, Gulf countries are also deepening green partnerships in the region. Masdar of the United Arab Emirates is leading major projects in Uzbekistan, including the 100-megawatt Nur Navoi solar power plant. Masdar has also signed an agreement with the Kyrgyz Republic’s Ministry of Energy to develop a pipeline of renewable projects in the Central Asian nation, with a capacity of up to 1 gigawatt, starting with a 200-megawatt solar photovoltaic plant. Tajikistan is partnering with the Abu Dhabi Development Fund and is being considered as a potential investor in the Rogun project. These collaborations drive regional energy transformation and deepen links between Central Asia and the Gulf through sustainable development and shared climate objectives.

In correspondence with the shift towards climate action worldwide, Kazakhstan is not only aligning with global sustainability trends but is also crafting its own unique model for a green economy, setting a precedent for the entire region. Through a combination of national strategies and active regional partnerships, Kazakhstan is positioning itself as a hub for clean energy innovation and sustainable development in Central Asia.

Photo: Eni

Uzbekistan’s President Hopes a Decree Will Spur Green Economic Growth

In November last year, during the parliamentary meeting of the Oliy Majlis, Uzbekistan’s legislature, Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev proposed that 2025 would be the “Year of Environmental Protection and the Green Economy.” He emphasised that the strategic goal of “New Uzbekistan” is to achieve environmental sustainability and economic growth by transitioning to a resource-efficient, green development model.

Each year since gaining independence, the Uzbek president has issued a decree on the eve of Constitution Day, observed on 8 December, setting the strategic priority for his administration for the coming year. These decrees generally reflect development priorities, as reflected in the Year of Support for Youth and Business (2024), Year of Development of Science, Education and the Digital Economy (2020), Year of Active Investments and Social Development (2019), and so on. While not all goals are fully achieved within a given year, these decrees provide a foundation for advancing the country’s socioeconomic development by setting out a framework for further legislation and policy formation at various levels of government.

As the most populous country in Central Asia with 37 million inhabitants, Uzbekistan faces pressing environmental challenges, including water shortages, soil erosion, desertification, and air pollution. The ongoing Aral Sea crisis, for instance, remains the country’s most significant ecological disaster, affecting not only Uzbekistan but also its neighbouring countries. While Uzbekistan has made strides in economic modernisation in recent years, environmental policy has often lagged behind. 

Declaring 2025 as the Year of Environmental Protection and the Green Economy signals a shift toward making sustainability a central development priority. A successful implementation of this year's decree will determine whether the country can transition to a low-carbon economy, improve resource efficiency, and enhance climate resilience—aligning with global commitments such as the UN Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris Agreement.

The 2025 programme aims to improve the country's environmental situation by focusing on several areas of intervention. The main objectives of the decree are community-level initiatives, such as creating green spaces, encouraging technical assistance to reduce emissions, and attracting financing for large projects. 

In terms of community-level initiatives, the decree emphasizes public engagement by linking health and lifestyle improvements to its environmental vision. For example, the programme promotes a national movement for “green families,” encouraging environmental stewardship alongside healthy eating, daily physical activity, and the use of eco-friendly transportation. This holistic approach aims to cultivate an eco-conscious culture, ensuring that residents actively participate in and benefit from the country’s environmental transformation efforts.

Equally important is technical assistance to reduce emissions, which is critical given Uzbekistan’s current reliance on fossil fuels and outdated industrial practices; these factors exacerbate air and water pollution, undermine public health and economic productivity.

Complementing these efforts, securing funding for large-scale projects is essential for modernising infrastructure and expanding renewable energy technologies. This, in turn, supports sustainable economic growth, generates new job opportunities, and reduces vulnerability to environmental shocks. Together, these initiatives form a comprehensive strategy that balances immediate community-level improvements with the broader systemic changes necessary for a resilient and sustainable future.

Small projects have also been underway, spurring forward the goals outlined in the state programme. This has included a tree-planting campaign organised by the Ministry of Ecology, Environmental Protection, and Climate Change in cooperation with the Zamin International Public Foundation, held on 19 March 2025. The Oxygen Park Project was developed as part of the national Yashil Makon ("Green Space") initiative to enhance Tashkent’s greenery, create a favourable environmental setting, and improve recreational spaces for residents and visitors. Projects like this one demonstrate how the decree seeks to mobilise support for grassroots projects while also securing investment for wide-reaching impacts, such as advancements in renewable energy.

If administered successfully, the initiative will not only continue to expand urban green spaces but also enhance the overall ecological aesthetic of neighbourhoods through improved street landscaping and the development of “shaded walking streets” where trees and greenery are strategically planted. These measures aim to provide residents with accessible recreational areas, reduce urban heat, and improve air quality.

In recent years, Uzbekistan has already been actively working to reduce its carbon footprint by developing green energy and implementing energy-saving technologies in cooperation with companies such as Masdar and ACWA Power. As part of the state programme, the share of renewable energy sources out of total electricity generated is set to increase significantly to 26 percent. To achieve this, 16 new green power plants with a total capacity of 3.5 GW will be launched, alongside the construction of hydroelectric power stations with a combined capacity of 160 MW.

Additionally, the programme plans to install small solar panels in 35,000 households and 27,000 private and social facilities. By the end of 2026, 3,000 small hydropower plants with a combined capacity of 164 MW are set to be constructed. A key step in advancing the ‘green’ economy will be the introduction of special tariffs for electricity generated from solar and wind power, as well as waste utilisation, starting from 1 April 2025.

To support these efforts, significant investments are expected, with the state programme explaining how the government plans to take measures from 2025 to attract concessional loans and grant funds to support green and low-carbon development projects from international financial institutions and investment banks. Up to EUR 200 million will be gradually attracted from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, while the World Bank will provide USD 10 million to help reduce methane emissions in the energy sector. Additionally, the Korea International Cooperation Agency, through the Global Green Growth Institute, will contribute USD 6.5 million in technical assistance to enhance green cooperation between Uzbekistan and Korea. Under the World Bank’s iCRAFT project, USD 7.5 million will be secured to support the reduction of 500,000 tons of greenhouse gas emissions. Furthermore, the German Society for International Cooperation will invest EUR 20 million to promote industrial greening and reduce harmful gas emissions from nitric acid production facilities.

Beyond the year-long government scheme, Uzbekistan is already taking noteworthy steps to position Central Asia as a key hub for the development of a green economy and clean energy, particularly in solar and wind power. Each year, Uzbekistan commissions about 2 GW of new solar and wind generation capacity, contributing to the region’s efforts to develop sustainable energy infrastructure. Though, additionally, one major initiative is the revival of the Great Silk Road through regional energy interconnectivity, linking Central Asia, the Caucasus, and Europe via a unified energy corridor. A recently signed multilateral agreement with Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan at COP29 will enable the export of renewable electricity through the Middle Corridor, with Azerbaijan constructing an undersea cable along the Black Sea to connect to Europe. This initiative will establish reliable transmission routes for environmentally friendly energy, further strengthening Uzbekistan’s role in the global energy transition. 

Another major initiative is a large-scale environmental restoration project designed to mitigate the effects of climate change. This includes establishing 100,000 hectares of green zones on the dried seabed of the Aral Sea and expanding forested areas in the Aral region to 2.1 million hectares. Given the profound environmental and socio-economic impacts of the Aral Sea crisis on its littoral states, this initiative is a crucial step towards regional ecological recovery and long-term sustainability.

Yet, for a country rich in natural resources, significant challenges remain. This includes resistance from traditional energy sectors reliant on fossil fuels and concerns over the financial burden of large-scale green investments. Uzbekistan ranks 11th globally in natural gas production and 14th in reserves, making it crucial to balance fossil fuel export interests with energy transition efforts. The challenge lies in balancing the energy transition and green economy measures with its interests in the fossil fuel trade, where a strategic approach is needed to leverage existing energy assets while investing in renewable alternatives 

Promisingly, previous decrees, such as the Year of Active Investments and Social Development, which took place in 2019, appear to have delivered tangible results. That year, the value of foreign direct investment reached  $4.2 billion, more than tripling the previous year’s total. The share of investment in GDP rose to 37 percent, also reflecting substantial growth. Additionally, Uzbekistan secured its first international credit rating and successfully placed $1 billion in bonds on the global market. While the decree may not have been solely responsible for these economic outcomes, it nonetheless helped direct the focus of relevant government ministries and agencies.

Translating the 2025 ambitions into tangible results will require sustained political will and transparency, particularly from government agencies responsible for policy execution. President Mirziyoyev has been a key advocate for the green transition, backed by institutions such as the Ministry of Ecology, Environmental Protection, and Climate Change. 

In this regard, the declaration of 2025 as the Year of Environmental Protection and the Green Economy may build a foundation for energy transition and sustainable development. By institutionalising environmental priorities, the government is signalling its intent to balance economic growth with sustainable development.

Photo: Uzbekistan Presidential Administration