China-Iran Trade Report (December 2022)
Chinese Imports from Iran Decline Again
New data released by the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China (GACC) for December 2022 shows a continued decline in Chinese imports from Iran, with non-oil imports falling below $300 million.
In December, China’s imports of ores, slag, and hash (HS Chapter 26) from Iran dropped significantly to $27 million. Compared to November, Iran tripped the value of copper (HS Chapter 74) exported to China, totalling $47 million. Overall, Chinese imports from Iran continued to decline, falling to a new 24-month-low of $311 million.
Despite doubling to $12 million, the value of Chinese declared imports of Iranian oil remained negligible. However, China’s crude imports from the UAE and Malaysia continue to grow, and reached a 24-month-high of $4.14 and $4.27 billion, respectively, in December. In recent years, China has used the UAE and Malaysia as intermediaries to import undeclared Iranian oil. Beijing also reportedly uses Malaysia as a transfer point for Russian and Venezuelan crude. December’s high oil imports from Malaysia and, especially, the UAE suggest that Iranian crude is retaining its share in the supply basket of Chinese teapot refineries despite the competition of Russian oil, probably owing to the recovery in Chinese demand.
In December, Chinese exports to Iran totalled $893 million. After November’s high-water mark, the value of electrical appliances (HS Chapter 85) imported by Iran declined to $79 million, a 77% drop compared to the month before. Similarly, in December, Tehran’s imports of base metals (HS Section XV) experienced a 24% decline month-on-month, totalling $65 million. Chinese exports of vehicles (HS Chapter 87) to Iran totalled $162 million, in line with November’s totals.
In 2022, the total value of Chinese exports to Iran reached $9.47 billion, while imports from Iran totalled $6.36 billion. Compared to 2021, the value of the China-Iran bilateral trade rose by approximately $1 billion, entirely reflecting the growth in Chinese exports to Iran. The persistent absence of declared oil imports from Iran continues to drive the trade balance in China’s favour.
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China-Iran Trade Report (November 2022)
Surge in Chinese Exports
New data released by the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China (GACC) for November 2022 shows a surge in Chinese exports to Iran, moving Tehran’s trade deficit back to July 2022 peak level.
In November, Chinese exports to Iran totalled $935 million, marking a 50% increase compared to October. November’s growth was mainly driven by the export of electric appliances (HS Chapter 85) to Iran. Total exports in this category rose to $240 million—a level last seen in the first quarter of 2018.
In November, Chinese imports from Iran declined further, falling to a 24-month-low of $326 million. Although the current trend reflects China’s zero oil imports from Iran, Chinese imports of ores, slag, and ash (HS Chapter 26) and organic chemicals (HS Chapter 29) declined substantially compared to October 2022. In November, the value of imported plastic articles (HS Chapter 39) fell to $139 million, the lowest monthly level this year. China’s early December decision to relax the zero-COVID policy will represent an import test for Sino-Iranian trade: Iranian exports to China may rise following the anticipated resurgence in Chinese domestic demand.
Consistently with the trend that began in July 2022, the value of Chinese declared imports of Iranian oil remained close to zero in November. However, China’s crude imports from the UAE and Malaysia continue to grow, reaching a 24-month-high at $4.13 and $3.96 billion, respectively. In recent years, China has used the UAE and Malaysia as intermediaries to import undeclared Iranian oil. Malaysia is also reportedly used by Beijing as a transfer point for Russian crude. November’s high oil imports from the UAE and Malaysia suggest that Iranian crude is retaining its share in the supply basket of Chinese teapot refineries despite the competition of Russian oil.
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China-Iran Trade Report (October 2022)
Soft Demand in Iran
New data released by the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China (GACC) for October 2022 shows a significant contraction in China-Iran trade, which fell to a monthly total of $1.04 billion, the lowest level since February 2022.
In October, Chinese imports from Iran fell to a 24-month-low of $365 million, continuing the negative trend that began in September. While Chinese imports of ores, slag, and ash (HS Chapter 26) tripled compared to the previous month, rising to $82 million, October’s lower import total reflected significant reductions in the value of imported plastic articles (HS Chapter 39) and copper (HS Chapter 74).
For the fourth consecutive month, the value of Chinese declared imports of Iranian oil remained close to zero. After the sharp decline observed in September, Chinese oil imports from the UAE settled at $3.78 billion in October. At the same time, the value of crude China imported from Malaysia dropped by one-fifth compared to September, settling at just under $3 billion. China has traditionally used the UAE and Malaysia as intermediary countries to import undeclared Iranian oil, with the Southeast Asian country reported to be also used by Beijing as a transfer point for Russian crude. After September’s significant contraction, October’s recovery in oil imports from the UAE may reflect the resilience of Iran’s crude in the supply basket of Chinese teapot refineries. Iranian exporters will be hoping that the forthcoming change in China’s zero-COVID policy might lead to a recovery in China’s economy, and thereby greater demand for Iranian goods.
Chinese exports to Iran consolidated the negative trend observed in September data, settling at $673 million. This marks a 30% decline compared to levels seen in July and August of this year. The value of exported articles of iron and steel (HS Chapter 73) dropped to $26 million, 47% less than the previous month. The value of machinery and electrical appliances (HS Section XVI) exported from China to Iran also fell, settling at $228 million. However, the export of Chinese-made cars and other vehicles (HS Chapter 87) to Iran registered a small rebound, rising 13% from September’s 6-month low. Lower levels of Chinese exports to Iran may reflect softening demand in Iran, as national protests hit economic sentiment in October.
In October, Chinese imports from Iran fell to a 24-month-low of $365 million, continuing the negative trend that began in September. While Chinese imports of ores, slag, and ash (HS Chapter 26) tripled compared to the previous month, rising to $82 million, October’s lower import total reflected significant reductions in the value of imported plastic articles (HS Chapter 39) and copper (HS Chapter 74).
For the fourth consecutive month, the value of Chinese declared imports of Iranian oil remained close to zero. After the sharp decline observed in September, Chinese oil imports from the UAE settled at $3.78 billion in October. At the same time, the value of crude China imported from Malaysia dropped by one-fifth compared to September, settling at just under $3 billion. China has traditionally used the UAE and Malaysia as intermediary countries to import undeclared Iranian oil, with the Southeast Asian country reported to be also used by Beijing as a transfer point for Russian crude. After September’s significant contraction, October’s recovery in oil imports from the UAE may reflect the resilience of Iran’s crude in the supply basket of Chinese teapot refineries. Iranian exporters will be hoping that the forthcoming change in China’s zero-COVID policy might lead to a recovery in China’s economy, and thereby greater demand for Iranian goods.
Chinese exports to Iran consolidated the negative trend observed in September data, settling at $673 million. This marks a 30% decline compared to levels seen in July and August of this year. The value of exported articles of iron and steel (HS Chapter 73) dropped to $26 million, 47% less than the previous month. The value of machinery and electrical appliances (HS Section XVI) exported from China to Iran also fell, settling at $228 million. However, the export of Chinese-made cars and other vehicles (HS Chapter 87) to Iran registered a small rebound, rising 13% from September’s 6-month low. Lower levels of Chinese exports to Iran may reflect softening demand in Iran, as national protests hit economic sentiment in October.
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China-Iran Trade Report (September 2022)
Iranian Oil Getting Squeezed
New data released by the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China (GACC) for September 2022 shows a significant drop in Chinese exports to Iran. While the decline in exports helped to level the trade balance, September data show a contraction in the China-Iran trade sharpened by the apparent decline in Chinese imports of Iranian oil via third countries.___STEADY_PAYWALL___
In September, Chinese imports from Iran settled at $415 million. The decline compared to August was driven by a significant reduction in Chinese imports of non-oil mineral products (HS Chapter 25) and organic chemicals (HS Chapter 29). The decline was partly compensated by slight growth in the value of imported plastic articles (HS Chapter 39), which reached $213 million, and aluminium (HS Chapter 76).
For the third consecutive month, the value of Chinese declared imports of Iranian oil remained close to zero. In August, Chinese oil imports from Malaysia peaked at an unprecedented value of $3.8 billion, confirming the growth trend that began in May 2022. At the same time, the value of crude China imported from the UAE, one of the intermediary countries through which China imports undeclared Iranian oil, dropped to a 12-month low at a value of $2.1 billion. When combined, the value of Chinese imports of Malaysian and UAE oil in September was $1.1 billion lower than in August. Consequently, for the first time since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the data may reflect the impact of Russian discounted oil marketed to Chinese teapot refineries which had previously been buying Iranian oil.
Chinese exports to Iran fell significantly, settling at $752 million. The value of exported machinery and electrical appliances (HS Section XVI) dropped to $298 million, down about $100 million from the previous month. Similarly, in September, Iran imported $128 million of Chinese-made cars and other vehicles (HS Chapter 87), the lowest level since March.
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China-Iran Trade Report (August 2022)
China’s Trade Surplus Grows
New data released by the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China (GACC) for August 2022 show a slight rebound in Chinese imports from Iran after the significant drop experienced in July. The rebound was driven by non-oil imports, as the declared value of the Iranian crude that reached China hovered close to zero. ___STEADY_PAYWALL___
In August, Chinese imports from Iran settled just under the $500 million threshold. The slight rebound of Chinese imports was driven by non-oil mineral products (HS Chapter 24), whose value reached $44 million. In August, after a significant decline in July, the value of imported organic chemicals (HS Chapter 29) set back at $116 million.
The total value of Chinese imports was negatively affected by a further fall in oil imports, which declined to $1.5 million. August data are consistent with the significant drop in Chinese declared imports of Iranian crude in July. Oil import data from the past two months might suggest a trend similar to that seen between February and June 2022, in which China effectively zeroed the imports of Iranian crude for three consecutive months before declaring over $200 million for two straight months. At the same time, Chinese oil imports from the UAE and Malaysia remain high, indicating that a significant volume of Iranian oil is reaching China despite the fall in declared imports. Consequently, it remains difficult to gauge the real impact of Russian discounted oil marketed to Chinese teapot refineries on the volume of Iranian crude China imports via third countries.
Chinese exports to Iran remained stable, remaining slightly over the $1 billion threshold. On a month-to-month basis, the value of exported organic chemicals (HS chapter 29) declined by 25%. The exports of electric machinery (HS chapter 85) totalled $169 million – the highest value since the beginning of the year. Similarly, in August, Iran imported $232 million worth of cars and other vehicles from China, continuing the growth trend that began in March 2022. Overall, the high value of Chinese exports continues to move the China-Iran trade balance in Beijing’s favour.
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China-Iran Trade Report (June and July 2022)
Chinese Exports to Iran Surge
New data released by the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China (GACC) for June and July 2022 show Chinese imports dropping significantly in July after consistent growth in the previous three months. Declared oil and non-oil imports from Iran suffered a sensible decline, with the declared value of Iranian crude that reached China in July at the lowest since April 2022. ___STEADY_PAYWALL___
In June, Chinese imports from Iran reached $888 million, the highest monthly value recorded in the past two years. This total includes $222 million of declared oil imports—again one of the highest levels recorded in the last 24 months.
Chinese imports from Iran in July dropped significantly to $390 million, with plastic and rubber (HS Chapter 7) and copper (HS Section 74) imports declining substantially month-on-month. Although there was also a significant decline in declared oil imports from Iran, which fell to $6.5 million, Chinese crude imports from the UAE and Malaysian remained at or near all time highs. The significant level of oil imports from the UAE and Malaysia suggests that despite the fall in declared imports, a significant volume of Iranian oil is still reaching China. This may indicate resilience in Chinese demand for Iranian oil vis-à-vis the growing volume of cheap, non-sanctioned Russian oil that has been marketed to Chinese teapot refineries since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine War.
Chinese exports to Iran grew steadily in June and July, surpassing the $1 billion level. In July, the value of chemical products (HS Section 6) that Iran imported from China totalled $81 million, and base metals (HS Chapter 81) surpassed $100 million. Notably, Iranian imports of Chinese machinery (HS Chapter 84) totalled $243 million, marking a new high point in the year. Due to the highest value of exports and the drop in imports, the China-Iran trade balance moved significantly in China’s favour.
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China-Iran Trade Report (April and May 2022)
China is Still Buying Iranian Oil
New data released by the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China (GACC) for May 2022 shows no major change in Chinese imports of Iranian oil, despite reports that discounted Russian oil may be squeezing Iran’s market share.___STEADY_PAYWALL___
Chinese exports to Iran rose from $611 million in April to $744 million in May. Rising inflation expectations spurred Iranian consumers to buy more goods in April and May, leading to a bump in new orders and higher output among Iranian manufacturers. Iran imported $175 million worth of Chinese machinery (HS Chapter 84), the highest total since January.
Chinese imports from Iran fell in April to $556 million as the country continued to undergo COVID-19 lockdowns. By May, imports rebounded to $703 million. But this total included an unusual $200 million declared purchase of Iranian crude oil (HS Chapter 27) that was likely destined for China’s strategic petroleum reserve. Chinese oil imports from Malaysia declined in May, but purchases from the UAE surged, suggesting that China is continuing to import significant volumes of Iranian oil even as more Russian crude is marketed towards Chinese refiners. But Russian oil should begin to displace Iranian oil in the coming months.
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China-Iran Trade Report (March 2022)
China Runs Trade Deficit With Iran
New data released by the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China (GACC) for March 2022 shows China running a trade deficit with Iran for the first time in 12 months, due to a jump in non-oil imports.___STEADY_PAYWALL___
Chinese exports to Iran rose from $483 million in February to $595 million in March as Iranian firms put in new orders in anticipation of the end of the new years holidays. Iranian purchases of machinery (HS Chapter 84) rose from $106 million in February to $159 million in March.
Chinese imports from Iran showed an event bigger rebound, rising from $509 million in February to $722 million in March—this was the reason for China’s trade deficit. The rise in imports did not include a jump in declared imports of Iranian oil, although data for oil imports from UAE and Malaysia suggest that intermediated purchases of Iranian oil may have increased. Non-oil imports showed strong growth, with large jumps in Chinese imports of plastics (HS Chapter 39) and iron and steel (HS Chapter 72).
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China-Iran Trade Report (January and February 2022)
Seasonal Drop in Trade
New data released by the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China (GACC) for the first two months of the year shows a drop in bilateral trade from the high point reached last December. While January totals remained close to December totals, bilateral trade dropped significantly in February. This seasonal drop in trade is associated with the Chinese New Year holidays which start on February 1.___STEADY_PAYWALL___
Chinese exports to Iran fell a from $847 million in January to $483 million in February—a 43 percent drop. Iranian purchases of Chinese goods were lower across different goods categories, but total purchases of machinery (HS Chapter 84), electrical equipment (HS Chapter 85), and vehicles and transportation equipment (HS Chapter 87), were $160 million lower in February than in the previous month, suggesting weak demand among Iranian industrial firms.
Chinese imports also declined by a significant percentage, 27 percent, totalling $509 million in February compared to $696 million in January. Part of the decline in imports can be attributed to a fall in declared imports of crude oil (HS Chapter 27). Total imports in this category fell from $136 million to just $5.8 million. Non-oil imports also fell, but by a far less significant 10 percent, remaining just above $500 million.
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China-Iran Trade Report (December 2021)
A Well-Timed Report
New data released by the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China (GACC) for December reveals the highest monthly level of trade with Iran in over two years. Total trade was valued at $1.65 billion. Notably, China declared direct imports of Iranian oil for the first time since December 2020, adding $148 million to the import total. But the rise in bilateral trade was also driven by strong non-oil imports, as well as by exports to Iran.___STEADY_PAYWALL___
Chinese exports to Iran fell 10 percent from their November peak to $891 million, marking the second highest total this year. Exports of machinery (HS Chapter 84) totalled $221 million, down 12 percent from November. Exports of vehicles and transportation equipment (HS Chapter 87) were down 15 percent from the previous month and totalled $131 million.
Chinese imports from Iran reached $760 million in December, a 54 percent increase on November’s total and the highest level in registered this year. The sharp rise in imports was partially due to the declared oil purchases, but also reflected an increase in Chinese purchases of organic chemicals (HS Chapter 29) and continued demand for plastics (HS chapter 39). When excluding the $148 million in oil imports (HS chapter 27), total imports rose to $611 million, the highest level in 24 months.
The release of the trade data comes just days after Iranian foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian completed a visit to Beijing. During the trip, Amir-Abdollahian and his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, announced that the 25-year Comprehensive Strategic Partnership agreement signed between China and Iran was proceeding into its “implementation” phase. While full implementation of deeper trade and investment links will depend on the lifting of US secondary sanctions, the recent uptick in bilateral trade suggests that China is committing to economic diplomacy with Iran, perhaps in anticipation of the restoration of the Iran nuclear deal.
