Iran's Oil Sector is Breaking Out

In August 2019, Mike Pompeo took something of a victory lap. Speaking to MSNBC, he declared that the Trump administration had “managed to take almost 2.7 million barrels of [Iranian] crude oil off of the market.” A few months prior, the United States had reimposed secondary sanctions on Iran’s oil sector, revoking eight waivers that allowed Iran’s major oil customers to temporarily continue purchasing Iranian oil. Without the waivers, just one major buyer remained—China. At the time of Pompeo’s boast, China was buying a negligible volume of Iranian oil in direct violation of US sanctions. Beijing protested loudly about the extraterritorial impact of US sanctions, but proved unable or unwilling to instruct its major refiners, banks, and tanker companies to sustain the previous level of imports from Iran. 

In Tehran, the loss of oil revenues was adding to the political and fiscal pressures felt by the Rouhani administration, already reeling from the economic fallout following Trump’s withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Iran’s oil minister, Bijan Zanganeh, vowed in October 2019 to “use every possible way” to sustain Iran’s oil exports. In the subsequent year, Iran made its tankers “go dark,” engaged in ship-to-ship transfers off the coast of the UAE and Malaysia to hide the provenance of its oil, sold to opportunistic new customers including Syria and Venezuela, and intensively lobbied China to resume purchases at higher volumes. 

Today it is Zanganeh who is taking a victory lap. He told reporters last week that Iran’s oil exports are “much better than many assume,” and the oil ministry has announced that it would begin ramping-up oil production. Data from TankerTrackers.com, which observes the number of tankers leaving Iran’s ports in order to estimate oil exports, suggests a steady uptick in sales. January 2021 will be the fifth month in a row that Iran has exported in excess of 1 million barrels per day of crude oil and condensates. The new monthly level marks a significant increase from the average of 695,000 barrels per day Iran managed in the 12 months following the Trump administration’s revocation of the oil waivers.

Should the Iranian oil industry recover in the first half of 2021, buoyed by the rise in oil prices from their pandemic lows, the sector would cease to be the deadweight holding Iran’s economy back. The second quarter of this Iranian calendar year marked the first in over two years in which Iran’s oil and gas sector was not in contraction. The International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the Institute for International Finance all project Iran’s economy to return to growth in 2021 on the basis of conservative projections for oil production and exports achieved in the absence of sanctions relief. Iran appears poised to match those projections. 

Iran’s rising oil exports pose a dilemma for President Joe Biden, who intends to bring the US back into the nuclear deal. There is a significant political constituency in Tehran that believes that allowing the US to rejoin the JCPOA would be a strategic mistake. The Biden administration has signalled that JCPOA re-entry would serve as the foundation for follow-on talks, a prospect that has Iranian hardliners concerned that the international community will try to force Iran into making painful concessions on strategic issues such as the country’s ballistic missile program.

The Rouhani administration remains strongly in favor of renewed talks and has indicated that it would welcome reentry into the JCPOA should the Biden administration decisively lift the sanctions imposed by Trump and thereby deliver Iran an economic uplift. But the attractiveness of Rouhani’s preferred approach depends entirely on the perceived opportunity cost should Iran fail to engage in new talks. This cost appears to be shrinking as Iran’s economic recovery picks-up steam and as the ferocity of political opposition Biden faces on the JCPOA becomes clear. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, presented “defusing sanctions and overcoming them” as the preferred alternative to Rouhani’s efforts for “lifting sanctions” in a important speech last November—a nod to the growing doubts that negotiations are necessary in the short-term.

For now, Iran’s political establishment remains open to negotiations because the country would be entering new talks from a position of relative strength. But that same strength will enable Iran’s hardliners to close the door on diplomacy should Biden dither.

Biden may be tempted to address the dilemma he faces be reasserting economic leverage. But attempting to drive down the oil exports with further sanctions would be a mistake. The only measures that might serve to stop China’s purchases of Iranian crude would require designations on China’s state-owned refiners such as Sinopec and CNPC, subsidiaries of which are widely represented in the portfolios of American and European institutional investors. Such a move would not only risk triggering a true economic war with China, but it would also cause a significant disruption to energy and financial markets.

Moreover, the risks of Iranian retaliation remain high. Iranian leaders have consistently warned that it would seek to deny oil exports by neighbors should it be prevented from selling its own oil. The September 2019 cruise missile attacks on Saudi Aramco’s Abqaiq and Khurrais facilities, which caused production capacity to drop by half, serves as an example of the very real nature of that threat. 

Clearly, Biden has no easy means to bring Iranian exports back down. So long as China continues buying, Iranian persistence will ensure the barrels reach the buyers. A few more months of sustained recovery in exports may be enough to convince Iran’s ascendent hardliners that the country’s economic outlook under sanctions is no longer so negative as to be a political or practical liability, meaning their opposition to the JCPOA will carry no real cost. Biden needs to move fast if he is to save the basic quid-pro-quo that underpins the nuclear deal. 

To do so, Biden must take steps to widen the opportunity cost between diplomacy and defiance once again. His administration ought to immediately issue new, temporary oil waivers in order to enable Iran to export oil without directly contravening US sanctions. Such a move would benefit US allies such as Italy, South Korea, Japan, and India, which count among Iran’s historical oil customers—US sanctions policy would no longer be at odds with their energy security.

The waivers would also help de-escalate tensions with China enabling cooperation on the creation of a stronger non-proliferation framework for the Middle East. The Trump administration used Iran sanctions as a means to target major Chinese enterprises including telecommunications firms Huawei and ZTE and shipping giant COSCO. These designations and the systemic threat their proliferation posed to the Chinese economy have spurred Chinese authorities to begin development of an alternative to the SWIFT bank messaging system and to instruct state lenders to prepare contingencies for further US sanctions pressure. Similar measures have even been contemplated by European governments. These moves foreshadow how the overuse of US sanctions threatens their long-term efficacy. Issuing new oil waivers would see Biden remove the primary impetus for these mitigation efforts in China and other countries. 

Restoring the waivers would also be welcomed by Iran, which could expect to see oil exports double, rising above the level possible through the complex and expensive methods of sanctions evasion currently in use. The additional foreign exchange revenue afforded by the waivers would help Iran more fully address its balance of payments crisis, easing pressure on the country’s currency and thereby reducing the rampant inflation that has led to hardship for millions of Iranians. The Biden administration can be confident that the additional revenues would have this effect because of the restrictions in place around their use. The waiver system, first designed during the Obama administration, sees revenues accrue in escrow accounts carefully monitored by authorities in the countries which have been granted the waivers. This oversight ensures that the funds are used for the purchase of sanctions-exempt goods and not for what the Trump administration termed “malign activities.” The funds cannot be transferred to Iran nor any third country without specific approvals. 

Despite these restrictions, for Iranian stakeholders, the issuing of new waivers would represent an important gesture, indicating Biden’s seriousness about restoring the economic benefits originally envisioned under the JCPOA, and setting the stage for US-Iran talks on the sequencing of steps to restore mutual compliance with the nuclear deal. Should those talks fail, Biden would surely revoke the waivers and Iran would return to selling oil in defiance of US sanctions. But should the talks succeed, the early provision of the waivers will have served to accelerate the reestablishment of Iran’s sales to oil customers, helping the country win back coveted market share. 

Iran’s oil industry is breaking out. Issuing new oil waivers is the best way to ensure Iran ceases to seek leverage by reducing its compliance with the nuclear deal and begins to believe again in the potential for “win-win” diplomacy with the United States.

Biden needs to give up some pressure in order to gain back control.

Photo: SHANA

China Takes More Iranian Oil, Intensifying Sanctions Challenge

China has taken its second Iranian cargo of crude oil after US waivers expired in early May, further defying sanctions on Iran’s oil exports. The HORSE, a VLCC owned by the National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) discharged its oil at Tianjin port in northern China, data provided by market intelligence firm Kpler shows. The crude could be destined to Sinopec’s Tianjin refinery. This comes ten days after Iran’s first shipment of oil to the CNPC-operated Jinxi refinery, previously reported by Bourse & Bazaar.  

Senior analyst Homayoun Falakhsahi shared Kpler’s analysis: “The HORSE arrived at Tianjin on 29 May and discharged 2.12 million barrels of crude oil it had loaded from Iran’s Kharg Island on May 6th. After its departure from Kharg the following day, the cargo went offline for a few weeks before reappearing passing Singapore on its way towards China.”

In the past, HORSE has delivered crude and condensate to refineries in China and India. The tanker’s latest voyage provides further confirmation that China has restarted importing Iranian oil after a brief pause following the expiration of US waivers. Due to their significant exposure to the US financial system, state oil companies CNPC and Sinopec had initially ceased importing Iranian oil in May, citing the risk of sanctions penalties.  

China, traditionally Iran’s largest oil customer, holds the key to the future of the country’s oil exports. Under the 6-month waiver period, China imported 600 kbd of crude and condensate on average from Iran, 43 percent of the country’s oil exports in the period.

In the run-up to the revocation of the waivers, China’s imports from Iran reached an all-time high of 913 kbd in April before decreasing to 299 kbd in May, when the final vessels to have departed Iran before the waiver revocation arrived in port. Against the backdrop of the trade war with the US, Beijing now appears to be undermining Washington’s goal of bringing Iran’s oil exports down to zero. Kpler data suggests that Chinese imports in June currently total 186 kbd, including two cargoes that left Iran before May 2nd.

The resumed imports reflect state policy. “The fact that state-owned CNPC and possibly Sinopec have restarted taking Iran’s oil indicates Beijing has given the green light to do so,” said Falakshahi. China has an interest in receiving Iranian oil not just for its energy security, but also because of outstanding debts owed by Iran. Around 100 kbd of Iran’s oil to China is used by the National Iranian Oil Company in repayment of costs and remuneration for Chinese investment in the country’s upstream oil and gas sector. In the last decade, CNPC and Sinopec invested a total of $3.8 billion in the Azadegan North and Yadavaran oil fields respectively, two of Iran’s West Karun projects.

Since the revocation of US sanctions waivers, Iran has struggled to find a home for its oil. Iranian oil minister Bijan Zanganeh has said that the oil export situation is much worse than during the Iran-Iraq War, noting, “We can’t sell our oil under Iran’s name”. Shipments of oil have slumped from 1.32 mbd in April to 984 kbd in May and 515 kbd in June.

However, as much as 75 percent of these exports could reflect Iran’s recourse to floating storage as wells continue to pump more oil than buyers are willing to take. Aside from China, the other traditional buyers of Iranian oil—India, Turkey, Japan and South Korea—have fully halted their imports so far, though India says it is considering importing Iranian oil again. Iran will be hoping it’s other customers are inspired to follow China’s lead.

Photo: Shana.ir

Sanctions Pressure Spurs Debate on Iran’s OPEC Membership

This article was originally published in Persian in Hamshahri Newspaper.

Today, the 24th edition of the Tehran International Oil and Gas Exhibition opens. Tomorrow, the U.S. waivers permitting the purchase of Iranian oil will be revoked. In 2016, the year when the JCPOA was implemented, around 600 foreign companies came to Tehran to participate in the oil exhibition. This year, just 65 foreign companies are taking part.

Mohammed Barkindo, the Secretary General of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), will arrive in Tehran tomorrow to visit the oil exhibition. Iran is one of the five founding members of OPEC, which is set to mark its 60 year anniversary. Despite this long history, the extraordinary challenges facing Iran’s oil industry have spurred industry leaders to debate three scenarios regarding Iran’s membership in OPEC. 

In the first scenario, Iran would suspend its membership in OPEC until the oil sanctions are lifted. In the second scenario, Iran would announce its departure from OPEC. In the third scenario, Iran would remain a member of OPEC and strive to use its influence within the organization to address the new challenges. These scenarios have yet to be formally deliberated by government officials, but reflect a growing debate among key figures in the oil industry.

Should Iran suspend its membership in OPEC, the remaining members will likely face pressure from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to abolish the membership of those countries which have suspended their participation for more than six months. What would be the next step? Would it not be a political failure for Iran to be ejected from an organization of which it is a founding member? Clearly, suspension of membership in OPEC is an unacceptable scenario.

There is no doubt that given the present oil embargo on Iran, Iranian officials will have limited influence on OPEC decisions beyond expressing expert opinions. It will obviously be very difficult for Bijan Namdar Zanganeh, Iran’s oil minister, to attend OPEC meetings for this reason. As a member of OPEC, the number of barrels produced and exported is determined by the consensus of the cartel, so Iran would presumably need to follow targets on which it has had limited input. Hard days await Iran’s oil minister in Vienna. But what would Iran gain by leaving OPEC? Such a move would be a loud political protest against Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which have taken practical steps to weaken Iran’s oil industry. But afterwards, will those rivals not be able to more easily pursue their energy politics, and use OPEC to further advance the isolation of Iran?

The sober, resolute, and reasonable approach would be for Iran to maintain its membership in the most influential organization of the developing world. Iran should remain a member of OPEC to ensure it can continue to engage with global media and influence public opinion on energy matters. It is true that Iran will be unable to meaningfully influence OPEC’s decisions in the near future, but the country should still demonstrate a resolute approach to unprecedented pressures in the energy market. Participating in OPEC meetings provides an important opportunity to remain close to future decisions. Any effort to isolate Iran would reflect the strategy of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and their bullying partner, the United States. During OPEC meetings and on the sidelines, Iran’s oil minister can expose the cynical intentions of some members to harm the interests of the Iranian people. OPEC, aside from its role advancing the interests of oil producing states, gives Iran a platform to be heard. Iran should not give away this platform. It should not cede the table to others.

Photo: IRNA

With Focus on Economic Relations, Iran-Iraq Ties Move Into the 'Daylight'

Expectations were high when Iranian president Hassan Rouhani visited neighboring Iraq last month. During the trip, his first as president, Rouhani signed multiple trade deals with Iraq, where the return of peace and stability has renewed the government’s focus on economic development. The deals covered a variety of sectors including railway construction, electricity infrastructure, and engineering services.

Today, the volume of annual bilateral trade between Iran and Iraq stands at around USD 12 billion. But Rouhani has targeted ambitious growth, saying the two sides should aim to reach USD 20 billion in trade.

The deputy governor-general of Iran's southeastern Khuzestan province—close to the Iraqi border—said Rouhani's trip prepared the ground for the growth of trade in the Arvand Free Economic Zone. Agreements to complete a railway link connecting the southwestern Iranian town of Shalamcheh to the Iraqi Port of Basra and the decision to eliminate visa fees for travelers were among the most notable achievements of the trip. The tourism sector is booming as Iraqis find it increasingly appealing to visit cities in Iran’s west as well as the northeastern holy city of Mashhad, a popular destination for Iraq's Shiite pilgrims. Iranian pilgrims also travel to Iraq in huge numbers, visiting shrines in Najaf and Karbala.

Any planned growth in bilateral trade will depend on Iran and Iraq addressing a range of financial disagreements, exacerbated in part by US secondary sanctions. Since the reimposition of sanctions by the Trump administration in November, complaints have grown among Iranian stakeholders—including oil minister Bijan Zanganeh—that Badghad was effectively siding with Washington given non-payment of rising debts. Prior to Rouhani’s visit, Iran’s central bank governor, Abdolnasser Hemmati, traveled to Baghdad for technical meetings and secured commitments that Iraq would pay significant arrears related to the import of Iranian natural gas and electricity. A few weeks later, Rouhani told his Iraqi counterpart, Barham Salih that using national currencies in banking transactions would help protect bilateral trade from sanctions pressures.

Just last week, Rouhani stressed in a phone conversation with Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi that an agreement to dredge the Arvand River—signed during his visit to Baghdad—was being implemented. Rouhani was speaking in the context of recent deadly floods that have left behind a trail of death and destruction in several Iranian provinces. During the phone call, Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi noted that Iraqis have warmly welcomed proposals that would see a greater presence of Iranian firms in their country.

For its part, the Iraqi government has sought to reassure Iran of its commitment to expanded economic ties with Iran, despite Iraq’s continued reliance on security and economic support from the US. "Iraq insists that the interests of our friendly and neighboring country must be met. We will do our best to reduce tensions in this regard and decrease the damage that will be done to the Iranian nation," declared President Salih.

Overall, Rouhani’s visit won praise across Iran’s political landscape. Hardline newspaper Kayhan, usually highly critical of the Rouhani administration, described the president’s visit as “an act of resistance” to US pressure, which served to “provide relief to the economy.” Financial newspaper Donya-e-Eqtesad, similarly highlighted “Tehran's message to Washington from within Baghdad.”

Iranian media also took pride in comparing Rouhani’s visit to the recent visit to Baghdad of US President Donald Trump. Iran’s state television focused on a series of comments Trump made following his return from Iraq, in which he complains about the secretive style of his visit. Trump sneaked into Iraq "in the dark" while Rouhani landed in "broad daylight,” boasted several Iranian papers. The obvious displeasure of US officials at Iraq’s warm welcome of Rouhani also featured in reports about the trip.

Iran’s reinvigorated diplomacy towards Iraq reflects a new diplomatic and economic strategy towards its onetime foe. By placing a greater priority in ties with Iraq, Iran is seeking to both mitigate the impact of US sanctions, while also countering US influence. In some ways, this strategy is a continuation of the tug of war between the US and Iran which began in the aftermath of the US invasion of Iraq in 2003.

For some Iraqis, this contest for influence reflects an unacceptable threat to Iraq’s sovereignty. Even the country's top Shiite cleric Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani raised the matter with Rouhani when the latter visited the holy city of Najaf. The highly revered religious leader stressed Iraq's sovereignty in his meeting with Rouhani, the first Iranian president to have secured such an audience.

Emerging from nearly two decades of conflict, first during the Iraq War and then during the rise of the Islamic State (ISIS), Iraq is now entering a post-war era in which reconstruction will be the foremost political priority. Iran, which played a role in the defeat of ISIS, sees for itself a constructive role in this new phase of Iraq’s development. It remains to be seen to what extent U.S. economic sanctions and political opposition prevent tighter bilateral ties between Iraq and Iran.

Photo Credit: IRNA

Iran Declares Gasoline Self-Sufficiency but Challenges Still Remain

During a grandiose opening ceremony attended by President Hassan Rouhani and Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh, Iran inaugurated the third phase of its Persian Gulf Star Refinery in the energy-rich south February 18, declaring "self-sufficiency" in fulfilling national gasoline demand.

Located 25 kilometers west of the port city of Bandar Abbas, the refinery will enable Iran's average daily gasoline production to reach 105 million liters, according to official figures.

The facility, fed by condensate from the South Pars Gas Field in the Persian Gulf, converts light crude into gasoline and other byproducts. The launch of the third phase has been described as a gigantic step in a country whose economy is slowing the face of sanctions reimposed following President Donald Trump's withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

Despite sitting on the world's fourth-largest proved crude oil reserves, Iran has been historically reliant on imports to meet domestic gasoline demand due to insufficient refining capacity.

The latest phase of the Persian Gulf Star Refinery has cost the country USD 4 billion, financed entirely by domestic investment, with no foreign loans secured for the project. While producing 45 million liters of gasoline and 15 million liters of gasoil per day, the refinery also delivers 3 million liters of aviation fuel, as well as 130 tons of sulfur. Iran's oil ministry expects to save USD 15 million per day as imports volumes are expected to fall. The savings are especially important for a government already struggling to supply foreign currency markets amid increasing international banking restrictions.

"Iran's gasoline production has made history with its giant leaps in the past five years," declared Zanganeh during the inauguration ceremony, adding that increased gasoline production would help Iran "to counter unilateral US sanctions".  

With the new refinery added to Iran's gasoline production cycle, Iran could feasibly export surplus production.  Yet uncertainty related to US sanctions as well as skyrocketing consumption at home in recent years seem to have made the government think twice about export plans. "We have intentionally decided not to export our [surplus] gasoline, because we are planning to maintain good storage,” Zanganeh added without elaborating further.

With Iran's budget largely dependent upon its oil income, experts have for long sounded the alarm on the long-term consequences of the country's single-commodity economy. Consecutive administrations have, therefore, pursued policies to make the economy less reliant on the sale of crude oil. While the goal is yet far from being met, the Rouhani government has focused on diversifying energy exports to include other, higher-value petrol products such as gasoline and gasoil.

"Self-sufficiency in gasoline and gasoil production and moving toward exports were targets set and pursued by the government of Hope and Prudence," reported Arman, a reformist newspaper. In a February 19 editorial, the paper noted that in the face of disruptions caused by the US pullout from the JCPOA, Iran's oil ministry had redoubled efforts toward the self-sufficiency in gasoline production and that more countries besides Iraq and Afghanistan are expected to join the list of Iran's gasoline customers.

The inauguration of the new refinery phase took place just one week after nationwide ceremonies to mark the fortieth anniversary of Iran's Islamic Revolution. State media outlets hailed "gasoline self-sufficiency" as an “achievement and blessing" bestowed by the Islamic Revolution upon the nation. "It came at a time of economic war being waged on our country, with the enemies going the extra mile to inject disappointment in [the minds of] young Iranians," declared a report from the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA).

The governor-general of Hormozgan province had earlier described the new refinery as a successful example of Iran’s push to establish a "resistance economy", a term coined by Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The concept has now evolved into a directive to all government institutions, a strategy to neutralize Western measures and a roadmap toward economic independence during sanctions times.

The leading contractor involved in the project was Khatam al-Anbia Construction Headquarters, known by the acronym GHORB. The company is an engineering, procurement, and construction firm with a near monopoly over Iran's mega projects. GHORB is affiliated with Iran's powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Saeed Mohammad, the company’s managing director, told Iran's state TV that the country's share in the enormous South Pars Field now exceeds that of neighboring Qatar. Mohammad also noted that the project was executed by an exclusively Iranian team with an average age of around 30 years old.

But even with the new refining capacity, worries persist that Iran's new gasoline self-sufficiency may be short-lived as domestic consumption continues to rise. The country’s average daily consumption last summer stood at 97 million liters, according to a report by the financial newspaper Donya-e-Eqtesad. Notwithstanding the total capacity of 105 million liters achieved after the inauguration of the third phase, the 9% annual consumption growth rate "will use up the stored gasoline,” the newspaper reports.

Consumption continues to rise because gasoline in Iran remains cheap. Despite rising inflation, Iran's government has in recent years maintained a cap on the price of gasoline. Experts lament the fact that with considerable subsidies allocated to gasoline, the government has not only failed to curb the consumption, but has in fact stoked it. President Rouhani's budget plan for the upcoming Iranian year offers no provision to reduce subsidies in order to reduce consumption.

The future of genuine gasoline self-sufficiency in Iran might be less bright than the development of the Persian Gulf Star Refinery suggests.

Photo Credit: IRNA

Iran’s Oil Exports Rise Month-to-Month Ahead of Sanctions Deadline

A new report from TankerTrackers.com indicates that Iran exported an average of 2.2 million bpd of crude oil in the first two weeks of October, a 10 percent rise from the September average.

October’s higher export volumes may reflect long-standing customers buying more oil ahead of planned reductions in November, when sanctions are expected to prevent many refiners from taking Iranian crude.

But the exports are nonetheless significantly higher than what many market analysts had projected and so far constitute just a 10 percent reduction average export volumes prior to President Trump’s withdrawal from the nuclear deal in May. Reports had suggested exports would fall to just over 1 million bpd in October.

Add to this the news that refiners like Turkey’s Turpas and India’s MRPL may receive sanctions waivers that will allow them to sustain purchases of Iranian crude and it looks increasingly possible that Iran will be able to sustain export volumes well-above 1 million barrels per day following the reimposition of sanctions on November 5.

When broad sanctions were last introduced on Iran’s oil sector in 2012, exports fell from 2.6 million bpd to just 1.4 million bpd in 2014 as countries tapered their imports of Iranian crude.

Should Iran manage to sustain export volumes around 2014 levels, it would be a significant achievement both because of the Trump administration’s effort to drive Iran’s exports to “zero” and also because of the important factor of oil prices. Back in 2014, oil prices fell 40 percent between June and December, settling to below USD 40 per barrel in 2015.

With today’s oil price double that figure, Iran is approaching November with a more bullish outlook than many had predicted. Iranian oil minister Bijan Zanganeh recently stated that the United States “has done most of the things it could do, and there is not much left to do against Iran,” with the aim of restricting exports.

On the other hand, as David Sheppard of the Financial Times writes, “While there may be more crude than first anticipated in the market for now, should the US ultimately succeed in hammering Iran’s exports lower the market could be in for a sharp shock after November 4.”

It looks like we are heading for a photo finish.

Photo Credit: IRNA