Iran Mulls Response as it Prepares to Bury Killed Nuclear Scientist

By Amir Havasi

Debate raged in Iran on Sunday over how and when to respond to a top nuclear scientist's assassination, blamed on arch-foe Israel, as his body was honoured at Shiite shrines to prepare it for burial.

Two days after Mohsen Fakhrizadeh died from wounds sustained in a firefight between his guards and unidentified gunmen near Tehran, parliament demanded a halt to international inspections of Iranian nuclear sites while a top official hinted Iran should leave the global non-proliferation treaty.

Iran's Supreme National Security Council usually handles decisions related to the country's nuclear programme, and parliamentary bills must be approved by the powerful Guardians Council.

President Hassan Rouhani has stressed the country will seek its revenge in "due time" and not be rushed into a "trap.”

Israel says Fakhrizadeh was the head of an Iranian military nuclear programme, the existence of which the Islamic republic has consistently denied, and Washington had sanctioned him in 2008 for activities linked to Iran's atomic activities.

The scientist's body was taken for a ceremony on Sunday at a major shrine in the holy city of Qom before being transported to the shrine of the Islamic republic's founder Imam Khomeini, according to Iranian media.Fakhrizadeh's funeral will be held Monday in the presence of senior military commanders and his family, the defence ministry said on its website, without specifying where.

Demands for 'Strong Reaction'

Israel has not officially commented on Fakhrizadeh's killing, less than two months before US President-elect Joe Biden is set to take office after four years of hawkish foreign policy under President Donald Trump. Trump withdrew the US from a multilateral nuclear agreement with Iran in 2018 and then reimposed and beefed up punishing sanctions as part of its "maximum pressure" campaign against Tehran.

Biden has signalled his administration may be prepared to rejoin the accord, but the nuclear scientist's assassination has revived opposition to the deal among Iranian conservatives.

The head of Iran's Expediency Council, a key advisory and arbitration body, said there was "no reason why (Iran) should not reconsider the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty".

Mohsen Rezaee said Tehran should also halt implementation of the additional protocol, a document prescribing intrusive inspections of Iran's nuclear facilitates.

Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called Saturday for Fakhrizadeh's killers to be punished. Parliament speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf called Sunday for "a strong reaction" that would "deter and take revenge" on those behind the killing of Fakhrizadeh, who was aged 59 according to Iranian media.

Call for Strikes

For Israeli newspaper Haaretz, Fakhrizadeh's killing was clearly tied to Biden's arrival in office.

"The timing of the assassination, even if it was determined by purely operational considerations, is a clear message to President-elect Joe Biden, intended to show Israel's criticism" of plans to revive the deal, it said.

The UAE, which in September normalised ties with Israel, condemned the killing and urged restraint.

The foreign ministry, quoted by the official Emirati news agency WAM, said Abu Dhabi "condemns the heinous assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, which could further fuel conflict in the region...

"The UAE calls upon all parties to exercise maximum degrees of self-restraint to avoid dragging the region into new levels of instability and threat to peace," it said.

Britain, a party to the nuclear accord, said Sunday it was "concerned" about possible escalation of tensions in the Middle East following the assassination, while Turkey called the killing an act of "terrorism" that "upsets peace in the region.”

In Iran, ultra-conservative Kayhan daily called for strikes on Israel if it were "proven" to be behind the assassination.

Kayhan called for the port city of Haifa to be targeted "in a way that would annihilate its infrastructure and leave a heavy human toll.”

Iran has responded to the US withdrawal from the 2015 deal by gradually abandoning most of its key nuclear commitments under the agreement.

'Revive Iran's Nuclear Industry

Rezaee called on Iran's atomic agency to take "minimum measures" such as "stopping the online broadcast of cameras, reducing or suspending inspectors and implementing restrictions in their access" to sites, ISNA news agency reported.

Iran's parliament said the "best response" to the assassination would be to "revive Iran's glorious nuclear industry.”

It called for International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors to be barred from the country's atomic sites, said the legislature's news agency ICANA.

Some MPs had earlier accused inspectors of acting as "spies" potentially responsible for Fakhrizadeh's death.

But the spokesman for Iran's atomic energy organisation, Behrouz Kamalvandi, told IRNA on Saturday that the issue of inspectors' access "must be decided on at high levels" of the Islamic republic's leadership.

Photo: IRNA

Democrats Push Back on Sanctions, Citing Coronavirus Fears

By Jack Detsch

Top Democrats in Congress are urging the Trump administration to ease sanctions on Iran, Venezuela, and other countries badly hit by the coronavirus pandemic, citing the need to provide medical supplies and humanitarian support.

In a stream of several letters aimed at Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and other top U.S. officials, Democratic members of Congress including presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez are pushing for the administration to grant clearly outlined waivers from American sanctions.

Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy also spearheaded a call by several Democrats to the Trump administration to ease U.S. sanctions against countries, including Iran and Venezuela, hit hard by coronavirus, saying the measures are hampering the free flow of medicines and other humanitarian supplies to the neediest as the pandemic worsens.

“Helping these nations save lives during this crisis is the right thing to do from a moral perspective, but it is also the right thing to do from a national security perspective,” Murphy wrote in the letter sent Thursday to Pompeo and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. “By allowing our sanctions to contribute to the exceptional pain and suffering brought about by the coronavirus outbreaks in both nations, we play into the anti-Americanism that is at the heart of both regimes’ hold on power.” The letter was co-signed by several Senate Democrats, including Chris Van Hollen, Tim Kaine, and Patrick Leahy.

An early draft of the letter sent by Sanders and Ocasio-Cortez that was seen by Foreign Policy also calls for a temporary suspension of sanctions, including on the banking and oil sectors that have been heavily targeted since President Donald Trump pulled the United States out of the Iran nuclear deal in May 2018. The letter is expected to be sent to Pompeo and Mnuchin early next week.

The Trump administration has said that it would only lift sanctions—which are aimed at pressuring Iran into a fresh nuclear deal without sunset provisions—once Iran stops its activity of supporting terrorist groups and proxies in the Middle East and halts its ballistic missile program. In February, the United States asked Iran to identify medical or other needs for coronavirus relief through Swiss interlocutors. State Department spokesperson Morgan Ortagus told the U.S.-funded Radio Farda on Thursday that the offer came without preconditions.

Murphy is asking the administration to hold off on the enforcement of sanctions for 90 days that could halt “a rapid humanitarian response” to the spread of the coronavirus in Iran. He also wants the Treasury Department to ease penalties against information technology companies that could provide information on treating or preventing the disease.

Over 30,000 cases of the novel coronavirus have spread across Iran, including to elite military and clerical leaders. Earlier this month, Iranian state radio said that Mohammad Mirmohammadi, a member of the advisory body to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, had died of COVID-19. Amid the crisis, Iran has asked the International Monetary Fund for $5 billion in critical funds and for supplies of masks, respirators, and other medical equipment.

The debate over whether to modify U.S. sanctions on Iran spilled out onto the editorial pages of major American papers this week, with the New York Times editorial board calling for the Trump administration to allow an IMF loan to move forward and for technical assistance. The Wall Street Journal’s editorial board ran a rejoinder on Wednesday.

Some experts say even with sanctions relief or waivers for humanitarian and medical supplies, it’s unclear if countries like Iran have enough foreign currency reserves to buy up medical supplies—or if foreign companies and international banks would be willing to broker the transactions in the first place. “Even if they say they’re not targeting Iran’s humanitarian imports, they’re still chilling the markets overall,” Brian O’Toole, a former CIA and Treasury Department official, told Foreign Policy.

Administration officials also believe Iran’s military and its proxies could immediately take advantage of any broader sanctions relief, even if sanctions were only eased temporarily. “If Iran could suddenly repatriate a bunch of money, or Iran’s [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps] funds were unfrozen, it could start to move those into places where it’s hidden, people couldn’t find them as easily, and then you’re stuck back in a place … where you’ve aided U.S. adversaries,” O’Toole said.

The call for the suspension of sanctions coincides with a Democratic effort led by Rep. Eliot Engel, the chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, and Rep. Adam Smith, head of the armed services panel, to keep the U.S. Agency for International Development from halting aid to areas controlled by the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, a suspension that’s set to go into effect on Friday.

“USAID is totally stonewalling efforts to push this suspension back, or to create meaningful carve outs for lifesaving programs,” a former U.S. official familiar with the matter told Foreign Policy.

USAID’s assistant administrator for its Bureau for Latin America and the Caribbean, John Barsa, who is set to take over the agency’s top spot in an acting role next month, strongly supports the suspension of U.S. assistance to Houthi-controlled areas, the former official said, though the Trump administration has been warned that the freeze could lack sufficient carve-outs for bystanders living under the Iran-backed group.

But it’s not clear the legislative effort to urge a course change will have an impact on the Trump administration’s efforts to exact what it calls “maximum pressure” on Iran to force it to rein in proxy groups and efforts at ballistic missile and nuclear programs.

Photo: Wikicommons

Iran Air Says Resuming Flights to Europe

Iran Air said Tuesday it would resume flights to Europe, lifting a two-day suspension apparently linked to a ban on the carrier's planes entering European airspace.

"All flights will be resumed except to Vienna, Stockholm and Gothenburg, which have stopped flights due to the coronavirus outbreak," it said in a statement.

The national carrier had suspended flights to Europe on Sunday, citing European "restrictions" imposed for "unknown reasons", without mentioning the novel coronavirus epidemic.

The announcement came as Iran's health ministry reported 54 new deaths from COVID-19, the highest toll within 24 hours since the start of the outbreak in the country.

According to several specialized sites, the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) on February banned some Iran Air aircraft from European airspace.

The ban covered an Airbus A321-200 and two Airbus A330-200 planes that had not undergone necessary software upgrades for authorization to fly in Europe.

The flight resumption announcement came after talks by the Iran Civil Aviation Organisation and the foreign ministry with European officials, Iran Air's statement said.

The carrier, whose fleet was hit by US sanctions reimposed after Washington quit a nuclear deal with Iran, operates flights to multiple European destinations including Paris, London, Amsterdam, Stockholm, Frankfurt, Vienna and Rome.

Photo: IRNA

U.S. Trying to Move Forward After Quitting Iran Nuclear Deal

After leaving the Iran nuclear deal, Washington wants to move forward by offering to build a "coalition" to counter the multiple "threats" posed by the Tehran regime—but Europeans intent on saving the 2015 accord may thwart that effort.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Monday will unveil a new "diplomatic roadmap" for Iran—how America plans to "address the totality of Iran's threats," according to the State Department's director of policy planning, Brian Hook.

Washington is looking to draft a "new security architecture and a better security framework, a better deal," Hook told reporters ahead of the speech, the first major policy address by Pompeo since he became America's top diplomat.

"The US will be working hard to put together a coalition," State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert said, flagging Washington's bid for a multilateral approach after its unilateral withdrawal from the accord.

President Donald Trump has long trashed the deal with Iran—concluded under his predecessor Barack Obama, together with Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia—saying it did not do enough to curtail Tehran's nuclear ambitions.

The Republican leader also said it did not go far enough in restricting Iran's ballistic missile program, or its intervention in regional conflicts from Yemen to Iraq and Syria.

"We need a new—a framework that's going to address the totality of Iran's threats," Hook said.

So far, the guidelines of this new strategy are unclear.

The big unknown is whether European leaders, who were bitterly disappointed by Trump's decision to ditch the deal, would be willing to return to talks with his administration any time soon.

For now, the European Union is trying to persuade Iran to stay in the 2015 agreement, even without Washington's participation.

Punishment Strategy

The re-establishment of the US sanctions that were lifted after the Iran nuclear deal was signed will force European companies to choose between investing in Iran or trading with the United States.

In reality, there is no choice—European companies cannot afford to forsake the US market And with investment from Europe—which had been the main carrot dangled before the Iranians to right their struggling economy—now stymied, Tehran may have little incentive to hold up its end of the bargain.

The Europeans have tried to squeeze a little flexibility out of Washington to help out their firms, but to no avail. 

"They tell us, 'We want the sanctions to hurt, there won't be any exemptions,'" said one European official.

Some in the US administration are calling for a "North Korea scenario," meaning the imposition of sanctions so severe that they force Iran back to the negotiating table. 

By reimposing the sanctions, Washington aims to "bring economic pressure to bear on Iran," Hook said. 

"It was economic pressure that brought the Iranians to the table a few years ago."

But Jake Sullivan, a former Obama administration official who is now a researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said "the idea that we are going to be able to reconstruct sanctions at the same level (as 2015) is a flawed concept."

"The more aggressive the US is in telling the Europeans basically, 'We have you under our thumbs,' the more the Europeans are going to say: 'We will find any means we possibly can to not let you do that to us,'" he said Friday.

Washington has meanwhile sought to downplay the differences with its allies. 

"We agree with the Europeans on much, much more than we disagree on," said Hook, citing "a lot of progress" during talks with Paris, London and Berlin that aimed to find solutions to Trump's concerns. The US official also mentioned French President Emmanuel Macron's proposal of a "new deal," based on the 2015 accord, but offering a broader strategy on
Iran. 

But those negotiations, and Macron's proposal, pre-dated the abrupt US withdrawal from the accord. Are they still on the table? And how could an accord be reached now if it was impossible 10 days ago?

"We are waiting to see more details," said a European official. 

Another European official warned: "But if it is a question of building a coalition to push for regime change in Iran, the Europeans won't be on board."

For Sullivan, the next phase is one in which "the punishment is the strategy—squeezing Iran and keeping them in the penalty box for as long as possible, and as much as possible, with the hope of regime change, but if it's not regime change, (then) a weaker regime."

Photo Credit: Wikicommons