Trump Says He's Not Looking to Topple Iranian Leadership

By Ladane Nasseri and Zainab Fattah

U.S. President Donald Trump said he isn’t pursuing regime change in Iran but aims to keep it from developing nuclear weapons, in an apparent effort to tamp down tensions that have led to fears of war.

Iran “has a chance to be a great country with the same leadership,’’ Trump said at a joint press conference in Tokyo on Monday alongside Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. “We are not looking for regime change. I just want to make that clear.’’

Iranian officials have said that the raft of U.S. sanctions against their country, which was tightened last month, is aimed at fueling popular dissent in an effort to topple the leadership.

“I’m not looking to hurt Iran at all. I’m looking to have Iran say no nuclear weapons,” Trump said. “No nuclear weapons for Iran and I think we will make a deal.’’

Trump’s remarks come amid fears that rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran could lead to miscalculations that would precipitate an armed conflict engulfing the Middle East. Frictions escalated this month after the U.S. said Tehran was planning an offensive against American interests in the region, then made a show of military force in the Gulf.

Iran has responded to the American moves by threatening to abandon aspects of the 2015 multipower nuclear deal that remains in force despite Trump’s withdrawal a year ago.

“The crux of the message by President Trump is that he doesn’t really want war with Iran, what he is trying to do is de-escalate the calls for war, ” said Fawaz A. Gerges, professor of Middle Eastern politics at the London School of Economics. His message “to the Islamic Republic is that his latest moves are all about deterrence and not war.’’

The Trump administration has made confronting Iran the cornerstone of its Middle East policy, and last year it exited the 2015 international accord that reined in Iran’s nuclear ambitions in exchange for sanctions relief. Trump has said he wants Iran back to the negotiating table for a grand deal that would curb its regional influence and ballistic missile program. His rhetoric this month has ranged from offers for Iran to "call me" to threats to "end" the nation if it seeks to picks a fight.

Trump’s conciliatory comments about the Iranian regime probably won’t comfort Gulf allies that view Iran’s leadership with deep suspicion over its regional activities, said Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, a political analyst in the United Arab Emirates. These include Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E.

“But Trump changes his mind within 24 hours,’’ Abdulla said. “Today, he can say this about Iran but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him going to war with Iran tomorrow.’’

Photo: Bloomberg

White House Insists Not Seeking Iran Regime Change

The White House insisted Monday it was not seeking the overthrow of Iran's clerical regime even as it seeks at the United Nations to pile pressure on Tehran.

"As I have said repeatedly, regime change in Iran is not the administration's policy," national security advisor John Bolton told reporters as he previewed President Donald Trump's week at the global body.

"We've imposed very stringent sanctions on Iran, more are coming, and what we expect from Iran is massive changes in their behavior."

"And until that happens we will continue to exert what the president has called maximum pressure," he said.

As a private citizen, Bolton had advocated supporting Iran's armed opposition, a position reiterated recently by former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani, who serves as Trump's personal lawyer.

Trump, who has warm relations with Iranian rivals Saudi Arabia and Israel, has pulled the United States out of an international agreement to constrict Iran's nuclear program and instead has restored sanctions.

Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has accused US allies Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates of supporting Arab separatists who killed 24 people at a military parade last week in southwestern Iran.

Photo Credit: Wikicommons

As Sanctions Bite, Where Next for Trump's Iran Strategy

A wave of US sanctions kicks in against Iran on Tuesday, cementing Washington's hard line against Tehran after President Donald Trump pulled out of the 2015 nuclear pact.

Already facing broad economic fallout as their currency implodes, Iranians are wondering how the next phase of the crisis in US relations will play out—and what, exactly, America's longterm strategy is toward their country.

At least for now, the US is fixated on bringing as much diplomatic and economic pressure to Iran as possible—though it is not clear where things are headed, or if there is an increased risk of conflict.

The US walked out of the 2015 nuclear deal in May and is bringing back "maximum pressure" sanctions for most sectors on August 6, and the energy sector on November 4. 

As of 0401 GMT Tuesday, the Iran government can no longer buy US banknotes and broad sanctions will be slapped on Iranian industries, including its rug exports.

Asked Sunday if Tehran would be able to evade the measures, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo vowed the United States would "enforce the sanctions," saying heaping pressure on Tehran was meant to "push back against Iranian malign activity."

"This is just about Iranians' dissatisfaction with their own government, and the President is pretty clear, we want the Iranian people to have a strong voice in who their leadership will be," he told reporters.

Room for dialogue?

After months of fierce rhetoric, Trump surprised observers last week when he offered to meet with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani "any time"—and without preconditions.

The dramatic about-face, which Secretary of State Mike Pompeo quickly tamped down, came just days after the enigmatic US president and Rouhani traded barbs. 

Trump at one point unleashed a Twitter tirade in which he blasted, using all caps, Rouhani's "DEMENTED WORDS OF VIOLENCE."

He was responding to a July 22 warning from Rouhani that the US should not "play with the lion's tail" and warned that any conflict with Iran would be the "mother of all wars."

Trump's offer for dialogue came after Pompeo seemed to suggest support for a change in Iran leadership, telling an audience of Iranian expats in California that the regime had been a "nightmare."

And John Bolton, the president's national security advisor, is a well-known Iran hawk who has advocated for regime change. 

"For Bolton and others, pressure is an end in and of itself," Suzanne Maloney, deputy director of the foreign policy program at the Brookings Institution, told AFP.

For the administration, "if it leads to a wholesale capitulation fine, if it leads to regime change, even better," she added.

Under Pressure

Trump's pressure campaign appears to have had some results. For instance, US officials in recent years have accused both the regular Iranian navy and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps of routinely harassing American warships in the Gulf. 

But this year, to the surprise of some military officials, there have been no such incidents. 

If Iran senses "American steel they back down, if they perceive American mush they push forward—and right now they perceive steel," said Mark Dubowitz, chief executive of Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington think tank that lobbied for a renegotiation of the Iran nuclear deal.

Dubowitz, who noted that Iran has tested fewer missiles of late, said Trump's rhetoric and position on Iran actually lowers the risk of escalation toward conflict. 

"He's assuming that if he talks tough, that will bolster the credibility of American military power," Dubowitz told AFP.

Both Trump and Rouhani are due to address the United Nations General Assembly in New York next month.

It's not inconceivable a meeting on the sidelines could occur then—Tehran will be looking anxiously to a November deadline for oil buyers to stop purchasing Iranian crude.

ver the weekend Trump once again floated the idea of meeting, tweeting "I will meet, or not meet, it doesn't matter—it is up to them!"

"Iran, and its economy, is going very bad, and fast!" he said in the same missive.

'Malign Influence'

US Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said on July 27 there was no policy that had been put in place with the goal of collapsing or changing the Iranian regime.

"We need them to change their behavior on a number of threats they can pose with their military, with their secret services, with their surrogates and with their proxies," Mattis told Pentagon reporters.

Experts see a number of possible outcomes for the current US policy toward
Iran.

Sanctions and diplomatic pressure could pile enough pressure on the regime that it comes to the negotiating table—something Trump has advocated for. 

The financial crisis in Iran could worsen to the point that mass protests make it impossible for the regime to hold on to power—though economic pressures risk galvanizing growing anti-American sentiment and support for hardliners.

Or the regime could start to address what America calls its "malign influence" in the region, including its support to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and threats to shut down the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping lane for international oil supplies.  

"I think (the Trump administration) would be pleased with any one of those end states," Dubowitz said.

Photo Credit: Wikicommons

Iranians Skeptical Over US Claims of Support

Tehranis said Monday they were deeply skeptical at Washington's claims that it stood with them against their government, as tensions rose again following the latest threats from US President Donald Trump.

"It's true that at the moment our society is in a crisis and under pressure that is creating discontent," said Haleh, a child psychologist in the north Tehran suburb of Jordan. "But we don't want the West to impose a revolution that can lead to disorder," she added. 

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo gave a much-hyped speech in California on Sunday in which he described Iran's government as "a nightmare for the Iranian people."

He announced an intensified American propaganda campaign so that "ordinary Iranians inside Iran and around the globe can know that America stands with them."

Trump added to the tensions on Sunday with an angry response to President Hassan Rouhani, who had warned a conflict with Iran would be the "mother of all wars".

"NEVER, EVER THREATEN THE UNITED STATES AGAIN OR YOU WILL SUFFER CONSEQUENCES THE LIKES OF WHICH FEW THROUGHOUT HISTORY HAVE EVER SUFFERED BEFORE," Trump blasted on Twitter.

Many Iranians—even those opposed to the current system—fear what they see as a push for regime change, especially after the US pulled out of the 2015 nuclear deal and announced it was reimposing crippling financial sanctions.

"People want change, but not necessarily a change of regime," said office worker Firouzeh.

"It's been 40 years since the last revolution and we are still paying the price. An entire generation has paid the price. Do they really want another revolution?"

Regardless of how they view their government, Iranians are at least glad to have been spared the violence engulfing much of the region. 

"For us, the most important thing is security, and for now we have security. We must have reforms, but people hope it happens without violence so that everyone wins," said Haleh, the psychologist.

Others felt a deal was still possible with the US president. 

"Trump is a businessman," said Amir, who said he did multiple jobs to get by in Iran's struggling economy. 

"He'll make an offer and we'll reach a mutual agreement, with God's help."

He said all Iranians were worried about the economy, with large-scale unemployment, rising prices and a currency that has dropped to record lows against the dollar. 

"The government must listen to the problems of the people. It can be done, it's not impossible," said Amir. 

"But Iranians will not accept being forced (by outside powers). They will react to defend their national honor and dignity," he added. 

The head of Iran's powerful Basij militia said Trump's threats were "psychological warfare". 

"He is not in a position to act against Iran. The people and the armed forces will stand up against our enemies and will not come up short," said General Gholam Hossein Gheypour, according to the semi-official ISNA news agency. 

Photo Credit: Thomas Christofoletti

U.S. Trying to Move Forward After Quitting Iran Nuclear Deal

After leaving the Iran nuclear deal, Washington wants to move forward by offering to build a "coalition" to counter the multiple "threats" posed by the Tehran regime—but Europeans intent on saving the 2015 accord may thwart that effort.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Monday will unveil a new "diplomatic roadmap" for Iran—how America plans to "address the totality of Iran's threats," according to the State Department's director of policy planning, Brian Hook.

Washington is looking to draft a "new security architecture and a better security framework, a better deal," Hook told reporters ahead of the speech, the first major policy address by Pompeo since he became America's top diplomat.

"The US will be working hard to put together a coalition," State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert said, flagging Washington's bid for a multilateral approach after its unilateral withdrawal from the accord.

President Donald Trump has long trashed the deal with Iran—concluded under his predecessor Barack Obama, together with Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia—saying it did not do enough to curtail Tehran's nuclear ambitions.

The Republican leader also said it did not go far enough in restricting Iran's ballistic missile program, or its intervention in regional conflicts from Yemen to Iraq and Syria.

"We need a new—a framework that's going to address the totality of Iran's threats," Hook said.

So far, the guidelines of this new strategy are unclear.

The big unknown is whether European leaders, who were bitterly disappointed by Trump's decision to ditch the deal, would be willing to return to talks with his administration any time soon.

For now, the European Union is trying to persuade Iran to stay in the 2015 agreement, even without Washington's participation.

Punishment Strategy

The re-establishment of the US sanctions that were lifted after the Iran nuclear deal was signed will force European companies to choose between investing in Iran or trading with the United States.

In reality, there is no choice—European companies cannot afford to forsake the US market And with investment from Europe—which had been the main carrot dangled before the Iranians to right their struggling economy—now stymied, Tehran may have little incentive to hold up its end of the bargain.

The Europeans have tried to squeeze a little flexibility out of Washington to help out their firms, but to no avail. 

"They tell us, 'We want the sanctions to hurt, there won't be any exemptions,'" said one European official.

Some in the US administration are calling for a "North Korea scenario," meaning the imposition of sanctions so severe that they force Iran back to the negotiating table. 

By reimposing the sanctions, Washington aims to "bring economic pressure to bear on Iran," Hook said. 

"It was economic pressure that brought the Iranians to the table a few years ago."

But Jake Sullivan, a former Obama administration official who is now a researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said "the idea that we are going to be able to reconstruct sanctions at the same level (as 2015) is a flawed concept."

"The more aggressive the US is in telling the Europeans basically, 'We have you under our thumbs,' the more the Europeans are going to say: 'We will find any means we possibly can to not let you do that to us,'" he said Friday.

Washington has meanwhile sought to downplay the differences with its allies. 

"We agree with the Europeans on much, much more than we disagree on," said Hook, citing "a lot of progress" during talks with Paris, London and Berlin that aimed to find solutions to Trump's concerns. The US official also mentioned French President Emmanuel Macron's proposal of a "new deal," based on the 2015 accord, but offering a broader strategy on
Iran. 

But those negotiations, and Macron's proposal, pre-dated the abrupt US withdrawal from the accord. Are they still on the table? And how could an accord be reached now if it was impossible 10 days ago?

"We are waiting to see more details," said a European official. 

Another European official warned: "But if it is a question of building a coalition to push for regime change in Iran, the Europeans won't be on board."

For Sullivan, the next phase is one in which "the punishment is the strategy—squeezing Iran and keeping them in the penalty box for as long as possible, and as much as possible, with the hope of regime change, but if it's not regime change, (then) a weaker regime."

Photo Credit: Wikicommons