IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano Prepares to Step Down

By Jonathan Tirone

The international body in charge of inspecting Iran’s nuclear program is searching for new leadership after health problems forced its director to plan an early end to his term.

International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Yukiya Amano seeks to leave the Vienna-based agency by March, according to two diplomats briefed on the matter who asked not to be named in return for discussing the private conversations. An official IAEA announcement is expected as early as next week.

“The director general is in contact with members of the board of governors regarding his future plans,” the agency’s press office said in a statement. “He will make a formal communication to the board at an appropriate time.”

Amano, 72, missed an extraordinary board meeting last week because of health issues, the second time in less than a year. His shortened term, which was originally set to expire in December 2021, will thrust the agency into an unexpected leadership battle as its Iran inspectors can expect scrutiny to increase.

“It’s unprecedented for an IAEA director general to resign due to inability to perform duties due to health reasons,” said Tariq Rauf, the agency’s former head of policy coordination. “The IAEA statute is silent on the matter.”

Chief Policy Coordinator Cornel Feruta could be asked to assume some leadership duties while the IAEA board organizes elections, according to the diplomats. Amano’s office is informing ambassadors that he wants to ensure “an orderly transition process” in the midst of rising tensions with Iran, they said.

IAEA investigators continue reviewing material for any new information about Iran’s past weapons activities. Agency labs are similarly assessing environmental samples taken from a warehouse alleged to have stored radioactive material that may not have been declared. It will be up to Amano or his successor to decide whether inspectors’ conclusions warrant an IAEA board report.

Amano was instrumental in raising pressure on Iran by issuing a series of reports that detailed the military dimensions of its earlier nuclear work. His approach drew criticism after leaked diplomatic cables suggest he was “solidly in the U.S. court” when it came to dealing with Tehran’s government.

Amano subsequently issued the December 2015 report ending the IAEA’s active investigation into Iran’s past military-related activities. The 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers gives IAEA inspectors the most robust verification system in existence anywhere in the world, he has said.

“This is hugely significant,” Ian Stewart, a nuclear policy adviser at King’s College in London, said in a Tweet. “Amano seemed intent on staying indefinitely and brought a very particular approach to the agency.”

The IAEA frequently drew criticism for the way it disclosed information under his leadership as public access to meetings and data became increasingly restricted. During the Fukushima nuclear meltdowns, diplomats chided it for being slow to communicate the degree of danger.

It will be up to the IAEA’s 35-member board to determine the election schedule for the next director. They’re scheduled to convene Sept. 9 in the Austrian capital.

Photo: Wikicommons

Saudis Will Seek Nuclear Weapon If Iran Does: Minister

Saudi Arabia will seek to develop its own nuclear weapons if Iran does, Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir told CNN on Wednesday, amid spiraling tension between the regional rivals.

Asked whether Riyadh would "build a bomb itself" if Tehran seizes on Washington's withdrawal from the 2015 Iran deal to resume a nuclear weapons program, Jubeir said: "If Iran acquires nuclear capability we will do everything we can to do the same."

Oil-rich Saudi Arabia has long said it would match any Iranian weapons development, but Jubeir's renewed vow came after US President Donald Trump pulled the United States out of an accord designed to prevent Tehran's alleged quest for the bomb.

And it came amid growing tension between the Sunni kingdom and the Shiite Islamic republic over Iran's support for the Huthi rebels in Yemen, who have been firing rockets across the border. 

Riyadh, which leads a regional coalition that intervened in Yemen's civil war to fight the Huthis, accuses Iran of supplying the militia with ballistic missiles.

"These missiles are Iranian manufactured and delivered to the Huthis. Such behavior is unacceptable. It violates UN Resolutions with regards to ballistic missiles. And the Iranians must be held accountable for this," Jubeir told CNN.

"We will find the right way and at the right time to respond to this," he warned. "We are trying to avoid at all costs direct military action with Iran, but Iran's behavior such as this cannot continue. This amounts to a declaration of war."

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If Iran Gets Nuclear Bomb, Saudi Arabia Will Follow: Crown Prince

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has said if Iran develops a nuclear weapon, Riyadh will follow suit—just days before he arrives in Washington for talks with US President Donald Trump.

In an interview with CBS television, parts of which were released Thursday, the upstart Saudi royal likened Iran's supreme leader to Adolf Hitler, warning he could sweep through the Middle East like Germany's Nazis did at the start of World War II.

"Saudi Arabia does not want to acquire any nuclear bomb, but without a doubt, if Iran developed a nuclear bomb, we will follow suit as soon as possible," Prince Mohammed said in the interview, which will air in full on CBS on Sunday.

Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, he said, "wants to create his own project in the Middle East, very much like Hitler who wanted to expand at the time," said the 32-year-old heir to the throne.

"Many countries around the world and in Europe did not realize how dangerous Hitler was until what happened, happened. I don't want to see the same events happening in the Middle East."

His comments come as the Trump administration threatens to end the Iran nuclear deal, which could leave Tehran free to advance its development of atomic weapons.

Stoking Saudi-Iran Rivalry

Prince Mohammed, the son and heir of King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, is scheduled to arrive in Washington on Monday ahead of talks with Trump on Tuesday.

The brazen prince, dubbed "MBS", has rocked Saudi Arabia since his father became king in 2015 and named him defense minister.

Last year, he was elevated to crown prince, and is seen as the effective ruler under his 82-year-old father.

His moves have shaken up the kingdom—declaring a liberalization of social mores from the stifling ideology of Wahhabi Islam, and moving to modernize a heavily top-down economy.

But in a move to consolidate his power over rival royals, he also locked up many princes and top businessmen for months to force them to hand over fortunes and accept him as the country's future sovereign.

And he has also added fuel to largely Sunni Saudi Arabia's fight with Shiite Iran, miring the US-backed Saudi military in a disastrous confrontation with Tehran's proxies in a war that has destroyed much of Yemen, and launching a mostly failed effort by Gulf Arab states to isolate Qatar.

Trump however has repeatedly signaled his support for Saudi Arabia, visiting Riyadh in May 2017 on his first foreign trip as the US leader.

His son-in-law and senior aide Jared Kushner took the lead in building a relationship with Prince Mohammed, reportedly supporting his political offensive against Qatar—which the US Defense Department opposed.

Fast-Track Nuclear Energy Program

The new push by the kingdom to develop a nuclear energy capability has raised worries that, as in Iran, it could potentially underpin a weapons program.

Earlier this week, the Saudi cabinet officially put the atomic energy program on a fast track, saying it aims to lessen domestic use of oil to preserve the kingdom's huge hydrocarbon resources for export markets.

Saudi Arabia has for decades ranked as the world's leading crude oil exporter.

Prince Mohammed's visit comes less than two months before Trump must decide whether to continue sticking with the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which removed sanctions on Iran in exchange for its pledge to halt its push toward developing nuclear weapons capability.

Trump has repeatedly condemned the deal, agreed by his predecessor Barack Obama together with Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia—all of which want to keep the agreement in place.

But Trump's sacking of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, removing a defender of the deal, and naming CIA Director Mike Pompeo, an Iran hawk, to replace him could sound the death knell for the Iran accord when the May 12 deadline for Trump's decision arrives.

"The United States is determined to leave the nuclear deal, and changes at the State Department were made with that goal in mind—or at least it was one of the reasons," Iran's deputy foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said Wednesday.

Photo Credit: Wikicommons