The Secretive Election of the World’s Top Nuclear Peacekeeper

By Jonathan Tirone

When the head of the world’s nuclear watchdog died in July, his death was kept secret for four days. Many people didn’t even know Yukiya Amano was sick. The process that will see his post finally filled this week is shrouded in just as much mystery.

The ambassadors of the 35 nations on the International Atomic Energy Agency’s board will enter a sealed chamber at its headquarters in Vienna on Monday. Two lawyers acting as witnesses will stand guard as one-by-one each envoy slips a paper ballot into a wooden box. Votes are counted and if nobody receives two thirds, the process is repeated.

It will be only the sixth time since the dawn of the nuclear age that the IAEA’s board of governors convenes for the odd ritual, which has been compared to the conclave, the gathering of Catholic cardinals who select the new pope.

“It’s a somber occasion, almost like those meetings in the Sistine Chapel,” said former IAEA policy coordinator Tariq Rauf.

The agency’s wood-paneled halls may lack the grandeur of being in the presence of Michelangelo’s Last Judgement, but whoever is chosen can wield significant power in some of the world’s most vexing hotspots.

The new leader will oversee inspections in Iran as well as the clean-up of Japan’s Fukushima meltdowns and negotiate a safeguards agreement with Saudi Arabia. And then there’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wondering why Turkey shouldn’t have nuclear weapons and North Korea still holding tight to its arsenal.

Argentine diplomat Rafael Grossi is the slight favorite to succeed Amano, according to two informal straw polls. He’s facing off against acting Director General Cornel Feruta from Romania and Burkina Faso’s Lassina Zerbo.

The winner inherits a built-in conflict at the core of this Cold war-era institution. It’s won a Nobel Peace Prize for helping prevent nuclear power from being misused for weapons -- but its diplomats, lawyers and scientists are still promoting the spread of nuclear technology at at time when the mood has swung toward renewable energy.

“There are a lot of challenges out there right now,” said U.S. Secretary of Energy Rick Perry last month in Vienna, who tabbed Grossi as a good fit for the job. “Our message to other countries is ‘don’t drag this out.’ To not have a director general in place is problematic.”

U.S. President Dwight Eisenhower founded the agency in 1957 just months before the Soviet Union launched its Sputnik satellite into orbit, prompting concern the U.S. could lose the technology race. Choosing the capital of a neutral country to host its headquarters appealed to actors on either side of the Iron Curtain who used it as a base for espionage.

Unlike the International Monetary Fund or World Health Organization, the IAEA’s board doesn’t publish a job description outlining the minimum qualifications to become its chief. Four IAEA director generals have been lawyers and just one, Sigvard Eklund of Sweden, was a scientist.

The Cardinals

Western countries that dominate the agency want it to strictly keep watch over other nations investigating the mysteries of the atom, according to Britain’s former IAEA ambassador, Peter Jenkins, who added “the cardinals don’t like to be hemmed in by other objective criteria in choosing a leader.”

The language of religion often infuses the atomic Jesuit cabal. The agency’s so-called Safeguards codes are referred to as “the bible” atop which all other activity rests, said one senior diplomat who asked not to be named. IAEA information circulars are to heads of state what Papal encyclicals are to Catholic souls, said another official. Altogether, the rules allow inspectors to track gram-levels of nuclear materials stored in secretive sites around the world.

Rauf, the former IAEA policy coordinator, held court during the 2009 vote when Amano was elected after a record six rounds of balloting. That race was characterized by intense behind-the-scenes lobbying to elect the Japanese diplomat, who was perceived as “solidly in the U.S. court,” according to State Department cables published at the time by WikiLeaks.

Now Rauf’s advocating for more transparency in the selection process to avoid any appearance of “diplomatic corruption and deal making.” The agency’s future could hinge on building trust over how its 377 million euros ($419 million) is administered, he said.

The IAEA has taken some steps to appear less secretive and lessen the legacy of a bygone era, publishing video clips of candidate speeches and pictures of preliminary voting.

“We live in 2019, so I think it was a natural thing,” said Sweden’s Ambassador Mikaela Kumlin Granit, who’s in charge of organizing the voting. “The IAEA should be an organization that keeps up with the times.”

Photo: IAEA

Iran Offered Lesson by Argentine Bid to Head Nuclear Agency

By Jonathan Tirone

Argentine diplomat Rafael Grossi says inspectors monitoring Iran’s nuclear deal could benefit from more openness and suggested his country’s nuclear program holds a lesson for Iranian leaders.

As a top candidate to head the International Atomic Energy Agency, Grossi faces the prospect of walking the tightrope between keeping tabs on Iran and other crises while steering the nominally technical agency through geopolitics.

If elected by member nations, he’s likely to face U.S. and Israeli pressure to open a new investigation based on documents and nuclear material allegedly discovered in a warehouse in Tehran. President Donald Trump accused Iran last month of “secretly” enriching uranium, something international inspectors haven’t reported.

“Uncertainty arises from silence,” Grossi said in an interview, explaining his view that IAEA safeguards inspectors should communicate more clearly. He pledged “firm but fair” monitoring and a “constant dialog” with member governments.

The agency is in transition after Director General Yukiya Amano died in July, just weeks after inspectors said Iran surpassed limits on its enriched-uranium stockpile set in a 2015 agreement. European governments, Russia and China are seeking to salvage the deal after Trump withdrew the U.S. in 2018.

The next director will wade into some of the thorniest terrain in global relations. The IAEA won a Nobel Peace Prize for debunking false intelligence that led up to the 2003 war in Iraq. Later, it was thrust into disputes in Syria and North Korea as well as international concern over nuclear safety after the Fukushima reactor meltdowns in Japan in 2011.

For its part, Argentina has spent decades building a nuclear industry even as boom-and-bust cycles roiled its economy, triggering a record $56 billion bailout by the International Monetary Fund. That has included supplying Iran’s research reactor with nuclear fuel and training Iranian scientists in what Grossi called a close but complex relationship.

“Playing by the rules has enabled our industry’s development,” Grossi said. “We’ve proven you can be a middle-sized nation with nuclear power and returns on technology research.”

Grossi, Argentina’s ambassador to the IAEA, was Amano’s deputy at the height of the Iran investigation, traveling to Tehran as part of a team that published a report in November 2011 that detailed Iran’s past nuclear-military activities.

His candidacy has won backing from Brazil, a Latin American ally and member of the agency’s board of governors. A new director general is expected to be named by October. Other contenders, probably including acting director Cornel Feruta, are expected to join the race in early September.

Falklands Effect

How Argentina came to do nuclear business with Iran is a story tied to the tides of geopolitics.

Argentina’s nuclear program languished from a lack of funding under military dictators in the 1970s and 1980s. When the junta fell and democratic rule took hold in the wake of Argentina’s defeat in the Falklands War, its scientists focused on developing expertise in research reactors and fuel, rather than immediately building up industrial-scale uranium enrichment.

Other clients of state-run INVAP SE include Australia, India, the Netherlands and Saudi Arabia. The Bariloche-based conglomerate has used its position as a maker of research reactors and nuclear technology to expand into aerospace and defense. Its 1,400 employees generated orders worth $918 million, according to the latest annual report.

Argentina’s decision to turn its nuclear program over to professionals in its National Atomic Energy Commission helped insulate it against “its often turbulent politics,” Jacques Hymans, a University of Southern California professor who has studied the history, said by email.

“Argentina’s nuclear program became not just a domestic success, but an international one as well,” Hymans said.

Photo: IRNA

Yukiya Amano, Japanese Diplomat Who Led Iran Probe, Dies at 72

By Jonathan Tirone

Yukiya Amano, the Japanese diplomat who led the International Atomic Energy Agency for a decade, handling the investigation of Iran and the aftermath of the Fukushima meltdowns, has died at the age of 72.

The IAEA confirmed his death in a written statement without elaborating on the cause or location. Amano’s poor health had begun to interfere with his day-to-day duties over the last year and he had planned to resign from the agency.

The IAEA published a message Amano had intended to include in a letter to the Board of Governors announcing his decision to step down: “During the past decade, the Agency delivered concrete results to achieve the objective of ’Atoms for Peace and Development’. I am very proud of our achievements, and grateful to member states and agency staff.”

Amano played an instrumental role in several of the most consequential international developments over the last decade. He led the IAEA’s investigation into Iran’s nuclear history after he assumed office in 2009. After the Fukushima nuclear meltdowns two years later, Amano’s agency was charged with assessing the accident’s international impact and drafting new safety standards.

“So saddened by the loss,” wrote European Union foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini wrote via Twitter. He was “a man of extraordinary dedication and professionalism, always at the service of the global community in the most impartial way.”

Amano oversaw the probes that detailed the military dimensions of Iran’s nuclear work before issuing the report that ended the IAEA’s active investigation and allowed the 2015 nuclear agreement with world powers to come into force. That accord between Iran and world powers gave IAEA inspectors the most robust verification system in existence anywhere in the world, he often repeated.

His death will thrust the agency into an unexpected leadership battle as nuclear tensions with Iran increase. His deputies will assume some duties while the IAEA board organizes elections. The IAEA’s 35-member board is scheduled to convene Sept. 9 in the Austrian capital.

Photo: IAEA

IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano Prepares to Step Down

By Jonathan Tirone

The international body in charge of inspecting Iran’s nuclear program is searching for new leadership after health problems forced its director to plan an early end to his term.

International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Yukiya Amano seeks to leave the Vienna-based agency by March, according to two diplomats briefed on the matter who asked not to be named in return for discussing the private conversations. An official IAEA announcement is expected as early as next week.

“The director general is in contact with members of the board of governors regarding his future plans,” the agency’s press office said in a statement. “He will make a formal communication to the board at an appropriate time.”

Amano, 72, missed an extraordinary board meeting last week because of health issues, the second time in less than a year. His shortened term, which was originally set to expire in December 2021, will thrust the agency into an unexpected leadership battle as its Iran inspectors can expect scrutiny to increase.

“It’s unprecedented for an IAEA director general to resign due to inability to perform duties due to health reasons,” said Tariq Rauf, the agency’s former head of policy coordination. “The IAEA statute is silent on the matter.”

Chief Policy Coordinator Cornel Feruta could be asked to assume some leadership duties while the IAEA board organizes elections, according to the diplomats. Amano’s office is informing ambassadors that he wants to ensure “an orderly transition process” in the midst of rising tensions with Iran, they said.

IAEA investigators continue reviewing material for any new information about Iran’s past weapons activities. Agency labs are similarly assessing environmental samples taken from a warehouse alleged to have stored radioactive material that may not have been declared. It will be up to Amano or his successor to decide whether inspectors’ conclusions warrant an IAEA board report.

Amano was instrumental in raising pressure on Iran by issuing a series of reports that detailed the military dimensions of its earlier nuclear work. His approach drew criticism after leaked diplomatic cables suggest he was “solidly in the U.S. court” when it came to dealing with Tehran’s government.

Amano subsequently issued the December 2015 report ending the IAEA’s active investigation into Iran’s past military-related activities. The 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers gives IAEA inspectors the most robust verification system in existence anywhere in the world, he has said.

“This is hugely significant,” Ian Stewart, a nuclear policy adviser at King’s College in London, said in a Tweet. “Amano seemed intent on staying indefinitely and brought a very particular approach to the agency.”

The IAEA frequently drew criticism for the way it disclosed information under his leadership as public access to meetings and data became increasingly restricted. During the Fukushima nuclear meltdowns, diplomats chided it for being slow to communicate the degree of danger.

It will be up to the IAEA’s 35-member board to determine the election schedule for the next director. They’re scheduled to convene Sept. 9 in the Austrian capital.

Photo: Wikicommons

Iran Snap Nuclear Inspections Jump as Tensions With U.S. Rise

Snap inspections at Iranian nuclear facilities jumped last year, underscoring the wide-reaching ability of international monitors to access potential sites that could feed clandestine research.

The finding was included in the International Atomic Energy Agency’s latest Safeguards Implementation Report, which is circulating among nuclear-security officials as the specter of another Middle Eastern conflict rises. Europe in particular has found itself squeezed between hostile governments in Washington and Tehran after the U.S. left the nuclear deal and slapped sanctions on Iran.

According to a copy of the restricted report published this week and obtained by Bloomberg News, inspectors deployed in Iran conducted a record number of so-called complementary accesses for a third year running in 2018. Almost 400 inspectors spent some 1,867 person-days combing Iranian sites and triggered more than three surprise visits a month.

“These snap inspections are a reflection of the concern, particularly among Europeans, that Iran would ramp up nuclear work in a clandestine fashion after the U.S. left the nuclear deal,” said Ellie Geranmayeh, a senior fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

Iran on Wednesday warned that it would abandon some elements of the 2015 accord if European nations failed to come up with ways to protect banking and oil business within 60 days. A day later the U.S., which left the agreement a year ago and is sending a carrier strike force to the Persian Gulf, piled on more penalties.

The escalation is disconcerting to non-proliferation officials who see the so-called Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action between Iran and world powers as a model agreement, one that bestowed unprecedented powers and access to international monitors.

The agreement “amounts to the most robust verification system in existence anywhere in the world,” IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano said last month in Washington after meeting with U.S. officials.

Since the deal came into force in January 2016, IAEA inspectors have issued 14-straight reports showing that Iran has remained within the parameters of the deal.

That could change during the third quarter, after the U.S. revoked two waivers that permitted Iran to ship out enriched uranium and heavy water. Delivering his response to a year of U.S. pressure, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said Wednesday that recent enriched-uranium stockpiles would exceed limits if the country isn’t allowed to send its inventories of the heavy metal overseas.

Four years of IAEA verification, amounting to more than 8,000 inspection days and more than 100 snap inspections, have cost about 85.5 million euros ($96 million), or about three-fifths the cost of a single F-35 fighter jet made by Lockheed Martin Corp.

“We’re seeing the cost of keeping peace through this diplomatic accord far cheaper than the cost of a potential military confrontation,” according to Geranmayeh, who advises EU governments. “That’s something to consider for a cost conscious U.S. president that complains about ‘forever wars’. The cost of the deal is a drop in the ocean.”

Photo: Bloomberg

Iran Thrown a Nuclear-Medicine Lifeline Ahead of Vienna Meeting

The world’s atomic watchdog said it’s ready to meet shortages of nuclear medicines in Iran created by the re-imposition of U.S. sanctions, as top diplomats gather to salvage a 2015 deal with Tehran.

The International Atomic Energy Agency is “willing to help” meet Iran’s nuclear therapy and medicine needs, Director General Yukiya Amano told reporters Monday in Vienna. The Islamic Republic has struggled to obtain some humanitarian goods as suppliers worry over contravening U.S. penalties, prompting Switzerland and the European Union to open new trade channels.

IAEA inspectors have repeatedly confirmed that Iran’s sticking to the landmark deal signed three years ago, which capped nuclear activities for sanctions relief. President Donald Trump’s decision to abandon the accord in May forced the remaining powers -- China, France, Germany, Russia and the U.K. -- to take new measures to ensure its survival. Their so-called Joint Commission convenes Wednesday in the Austrian capital.

In addition to its monitoring activities, the IAEA helps countries around the world to develop medicine used for the diagnosis and treatment of cancer.

Leading up to this week’s meeting, American officials had been ratcheting up pressure by threatening new sanctions and advocating for more aggressive inspections. Countries providing technical cooperation to Iran under IAEA auspices were warned they could run afoul of U.S. sanctions. Washington’s efforts, however, have struggled to gain traction among international officials.

“Iran is implementing its nuclear-related commitments,” Amano said. “The agency continues to verify the non-diversion of nuclear material.”

Photo Credit: IRNA

Iran Sticking to Nuclear Deal Conditions: IAEA

Iran has been abiding by the terms of its nuclear deal with global powers, the latest report from the UN atomic watchdog indicated Monday, days after fresh US sanctions hit the country.

The International Atomic Energy Agency's latest report showed that as of early November, Iran had been complying with the restrictions to its nuclear program laid down in the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

Sweeping new American sanctions against Iran, which came into effect on 5 November, have raised fears about whether the deal can survive.

Some parts of the fieldwork in the report took place before the sanctions came into effect, but a senior diplomat with knowledge of the situation said there was "nothing that indicates that... cooperation from Iran or its attitude has changed since 5 November".

The report said that as of November 4, Iran's stockpiles of low-enriched uranium stood at 149.4kg, 10kg up from the time of its last report in August.

However, this is still well within the limits set by the JCPOA.

The agency repeated language which has appeared in two previous reports emphasizing the importance of "timely and proactive cooperation in providing such access" on Iran's part.

However, the senior diplomat suggested that this was meant less as an admonition to Iran than as encouragement to maintain the current level of cooperation.

'Face Value'

The report makes no mention of recent claims made by Israeli Prime Minster Benjamin Netanyahu that Iran was harboring a secret atomic warehouse.

The latest American sanctions aim to cut off Iran's banks from international finance and significantly cut its oil exports.

Those have already fallen by up to one million barrels a day since May, when US President Donald Trump withdrew from the JCPOA, branding it a "disaster.”

Iran's economy was already reeling from the effect of US sanctions imposed earlier in the year. On Friday US National Security Advisor John Bolton warned that more sanctions were possible.

Iran has said the future of the JCPOA would be called into question if it no longer received the economic benefits of the deal.

The deal envisaged sanctions on Iran being lifted in return for it accepting IAEA inspections and limits on its nuclear activities.

The remaining five signatories to the JCPOA—Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia—have backed an EU effort to set up a special payment system in an attempt to continue trade and business ties with Iran.

However, some European companies have already pulled out of Iran. Earlier this month senior EU officials admitted that the mechanism was proving difficult to set up.

Photo Credit: IAEA

IAEA Fends Off Israel Pressure Over Iran

The UN's nuclear watchdog Tuesday refused to "take at face value" Israel's claims that Iran is harboring a secret atomic warehouse, fending off pressure to inspect the allegedly suspect site.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made the claim in front of the UN General Assembly last week.

Without explicitly referring to Netanyahu's claim, IAEA chief Yukiya Amano insisted that the agency's independence was "of paramount importance" for its work.

The IAEA "uses all safeguards-relevant information available to it but it does not take any information at face value," Amano said in a statement.

Netanyahu accused Iran of operating a "secret atomic warehouse for storing massive amounts of equipment and material from Iran's secret nuclear weapons program."

He urged the IAEA to inspect the site.

Amano said the IAEA would not be told how to do its work.

"All information obtained, including from third parties, is subject to rigorous review," he said.

He said the IAEA's work "must always be impartial, factual, and professional."

Under the 2015 deal, Iran agreed to scale down its nuclear activities and submit to IAEA inspections in exchange for relief from sanctions.

Israel bitterly opposes the deal and congratulated US President Donald Trump for walking away from it earlier this year.

The IAEA has repeatedly said that Iran is continuing to meet its commitments under the deal.

Amano said on Tuesday that evaluations of Iran's compliance were "ongoing.”

Photo Credit: IRNA

Iran Still Abiding By Nuclear Deal Terms: IAEA

Iran is sticking to the terms of its nuclear deal with world powers, a UN atomic watchdog report showed Thursday, despite ongoing uncertainty over its future.

The report from the International Atomic Energy Agency showed that Iran was still complying with the key parameters of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), agreed in 2015 by Iran and the US, China, Russia, Britain, France and Germany.

It comes despite the future of the deal being thrown into doubt after US President Donald Trump withdrew from the pact in May and re-imposed US
sanctions.

The latest report says the IAEA had had access "to all the sites and locations in Iran which it needed to visit."

The agency repeated language in its previous report emphasizing the importance of "timely and proactive cooperation in providing such access" on Iran's part.

A senior diplomat with knowledge of the issue said that the language was a way "to send a message to Iran to prevent potential problems" rather than being caused by any particular behavior on the part of the Iranians.

The report said Iran's stockpiles of low-enriched uranium and heavy water had both slightly increased since the last report in May, but were still under the limits agreed in the deal.

Iran's economy has been battered by the return of US sanctions following Trump's decision, undermining support for the deal within Iran.

'No avoiding' Further Talks

On Wednesday Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Tehran should be ready to "set aside" the JCPOA if it is no longer in the country's national interests.

However, Khamenei said talks should continue with European states, who have been trying to find a way to salvage the agreement.

Last week, the EU agreed an EUR 18 million package of assistance to Iran "for projects in support of sustainable economic and social development" in the Islamic Republic, the first tranche of a wider package worth EUR 50 million."

Most foreign firms have abandoned investment projects in Iran, and the next phase of renewed US sanctions in November will hit the crucial oil sector.

Speaking on Thursday while attending meetings of EU foreign and defense ministers, the EU's foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini said that despite disagreements with Iran over other issues, "we believe that addressing regional disagreements with Iran can be done in a more effective manner if we maintain the nuclear deal in place".

French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, also speaking in Vienna, said that in his opinion Iran was respecting "the fundamentals of the JCPOA."

However, he added that "Iran cannot avoid discussions, negotiations on three other major subjects that worry us," namely Iran's ballistic missile program, the long-term future of its nuclear program and its role in conflicts in the wider region.

In June, in a bid to mount pressure on the Europeans, Iran announced a plan to increase its uranium enrichment capacity with new centrifuges in the event that the agreement collapses, while still denying any desire to build a nuclear weapon.

Under the 2015 agreement, Iran can only enrich uranium to 3.67 percent—far below the roughly 90-percent level needed for nuclear weapons.

Photo Credit: IAEA