In Tehran, White House Race is Talk of Town

By Ahmad Parhizi

For Iran, struggling from sanctions imposed under Washington's policy of "maximum pressure", the US presidential race raises hope of change—but also fears that life could get even worse.

“The general view is that the result of this presidential election is crucial for the population,” said Zeinab Esmaili, who covers foreign affairs for the Iranian reformist newspaper Shargh.

Tehran and Washington, long-time enemies, have not maintained diplomatic relations for decades.

But tensions have soared under US President Donald Trump, who pulled out of a nuclear accord negotiated by his predecessor Barack Obama—as well as other nations—and placed sweeping sanctions on the country.

Iranians have grown used to having their day-to-day lives hit hard by foreign policy decisions taken far away in the US.

“It is natural for us to talk about the American elections,” said Mohammad Amin Naqibzadeh, a 28-year-old geopolitics student.

In May 2018, Trump withdrew from a landmark deal that gave Iran relief from sanctions in return for UN-verified guarantees that it is not seeking nuclear weapons.

The subsequent waves of sanctions on Iran have crippled its economy.

International Arrogance

So along with the US election, two topics dominate conversation in Tehran: the rise in prices and the declining exchange rate of the Iranian rial.

Both crises are linked deeply to US relations with Tehran.

Iran has also been battered by the coronavirus pandemic, with related restrictions adding to the Islamic republic’s economic woes.

The value of its currency has slumped dramatically.

The rial has lost nearly 90 percent of its value against the dollar in the past three years, fueling galloping inflation.

Iran regularly denounces as “lies” Washington’s claims that the sanctions do not affect ordinary citizens.

Officially, the authorities have a clear view on who they support: neither candidate.

Both Trump and Democratic White House hopeful Joe Biden are two sides of the same coin of Washington’s “international arrogance”.

For Iran’s leaders, Washington is often dubbed the “Great Satan”, or simply the “enemy”.

But on Tehran’s streets, many residents say they believe they would be better off with Biden.

If Trump is re-elected, people expect to get more of the same “maximum pressure” policy and crushing sanctions.

In September, Biden wrote that he “will offer Tehran a credible path back to diplomacy”.

Some hope that could mean the potential return of the US to the UN nuclear agreement on Iran — a deal struck while Biden was Obama’s vice-president.

“There is therefore hope he will return to this agreement,” said Mohammad Ali Kiani, a 28-year-old politics student.

“In general, people think that a victory for Biden… would be better for Iran,” said Esmaili, the journalist for Shargh.

But not all are convinced.

“People are hoping for an improvement in their economic situation,” said journalist Maziar Khosravi.

“It does not matter to them who is in the White House.”

Others seem to expect that Trump will win a second term—and that for them, life will grow worse.

“They see it as very likely that Trump will start a second term and that… the rise in prices and the devaluation of the rial will continue,” Esmaili said.

‘Illusion’

The news that Trump tested positive for the coronavirus sparked several conspiracy theories on Iranian social media—as well as jokes linking the state of his health to the exchange rate.

Officially, the authorities in Iran support neither President Donald Trump nor his challenger Joe Biden in the US election, but many people on Tehran’s streets say they believe they’ll be better off with Biden© AFP ATTA KENARE

If Trump wins a second term, the continuation of his hardline policies will further impact politics in Iran.

“A radical American approach also radicalises (politics) in Iran,” said reformist economist Saeed Leylaz.

Leylaz wants to believe that if Biden won, he would “seriously change US policy towards Iran”.

But others are skeptical, and say a Biden victory would unlikely change much — not least because there are only five months between the January 20 inauguration of the US winner, and Iran’s own presidential elections on June 18.

Hamidreza Taraqi, a senior official in the conservative alliance which won legislative elections in February, is opposed to any discussion with Washington.

He pointed out that the decades-long political conflict between Tehran and Washington has already “tested both Democrats and Republicans”, and calls the idea of change under Biden an “illusion”.

“Neither have embarked on a path that will resolve the problems” of Iran, he said.

Photo: IRNA

Trump Backs Away From Conflict With Iran After Harmless Attack

By Josh Wingrove and Jennifer Jacobs

President Donald Trump backed away from the precipice of war with Iran after the Islamic Republic attacked U.S. bases in Iraq with a barrage of missiles the Pentagon believes was intended to cause no casualties.

In televised remarks to the nation on Wednesday, Trump defended the U.S. strike on a top Iranian general that touched off the missile barrage and said he would impose new sanctions on Tehran.

“As long as I’m president of the United States, Iran will never be allowed to have a nuclear weapon,” Trump said as he began his speech.

But he also offered the country’s regime a diplomatic opening. Any new nuclear deal, he said, must allow “Iran to thrive and prosper, and take advantage of its enormous untapped potential. Iran can be a great country.”

Iran fired more than a dozen guided missiles at two U.S. bases in Iraq in retaliation for the killing of Qassem Soleimani. But a Pentagon analysis of the attack suggested the missiles were aimed at unpopulated parts of the bases, according to people familiar with the matter.

Satellite imagery of the bases provided by Planet Labs showed damaged aircraft hangers and other structures at the Al Asad airbase in western Iraq following the strike.

“Iran appears to be standing down,” Trump said. “Which is a good thing for all parties concerned and a very good thing for the world.”

Iran’s restraint and Trump’s measured remarks in response suggest a path toward easing tensions with Tehran, which surged after Soleimani’s killing in a U.S. drone strike near the Baghdad airport last week.

Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said on Twitter earlier Wednesday that the missile attack “concluded” Iran’s retaliation for Soleimani’s killing. Even if Tehran refrains from further direct attacks, it might still seek reprisals through more covert means, such as attacks by proxy militias or in cyberspace.

An Iranian official said earlier this week that its government was considering 13 means of retaliation that would inflict a “historic nightmare” on the U.S.

The S&P 500 pushed to a fresh intraday record after Trump’s remarks. Treasuries turned lower after spiking overnight following the Iranian attack. Oil fell below $61 a barrel in New York.

‘Top Terrorist’

Trump said Soleimani was “the world’s top terrorist” and was “personally responsible for some of the absolutely worst atrocities,” including the training of “terrorist armies” and “fueling bloody civil wars across the region.” He said Iranian weapons Soleimani supplied to Iraqi militants had injured or killed thousands of U.S. troops.

Trump had threatened to strike 52 Iranian targets were any Americans killed in Tehran’s reprisals for Soleimani’s death.

The Pentagon said that the two bases struck by Iranian missiles -- the sprawling Al Asad airbase in western Iraq, and a smaller base near the city of Erbil -- had already been on high alert, and Iraq’s government said it had been forewarned of the Iranian attack. There were no Iraqi casualties from the Iranian strike.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei described the attacks on the bases as a “crushing response.”

“Last night, they got a slap in the face,” he said on state television. He again demanded that the U.S. presence in the Mideast come to an end, a sign that Tehran’s ultimate goal remains to push the American military out of Iraq.

Nuclear Accord

Trump escalated tensions with Iran in 2018 by withdrawing from the nuclear accord negotiated by his predecessor, Barack Obama, and reimposing sanctions that have crushed the Iranian economy. Iran responded by arming and directing proxy militias across the region that have caused trouble for the U.S. and its allies in Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.

The missiles Iran fired at U.S. bases on Wednesday, Trump claimed, “were paid for by the funds made available by the last administration.” He provided no substantiation, but has frequently criticized Obama for releasing frozen Iranian assets to Tehran after the nuclear accord was completed.

Soleimani, regarded as the second most powerful person in Iran, commanded the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps’ Quds Force, the expeditionary arm of the Iranian military that provided support for proxy groups. Trump ordered him killed after a Dec. 27 rocket attack on a joint U.S.-Iraqi base near Kirkuk resulted in the death of an American contractor. The U.S. blamed the attack on an Iran-backed militia and killed its leader in the strike on Soleimani.

Trump has said that Soleimani was planning “imminent” attacks on U.S. forces in the Mideast, though his administration has provided little evidence for the claim.

Democrats and a few Republicans have criticized the Soleimani strike, saying it would endanger U.S. diplomatic and military personnel in the region. Administration officials will provide classified briefings to Congress later on Wednesday.

Photo: White House

Trump Fires Bolton as Top Security Adviser, Citing Disagreements

By Jennifer Jacobs, Nick Wadhams and Jennifer Epstein

President Donald Trump said he fired his hawkish national security adviser, John Bolton, after disagreeing “strongly” with many of his positions, ending a tumultuous tenure marked by multiple setbacks in U.S. foreign policy.

Bolton, known for his hardline approach to U.S. adversaries, including Iran, North Korea and Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, was the third person to formally occupy the White House’s highest-ranking national security job under Trump.

“I informed John Bolton last night that his services are no longer needed at the White House,” Trump said in a pair of tweets. “I thank John very much for his service. I will be naming a new National Security Advisor next week.”

Bolton had been scheduled to take part in a White House press briefing Tuesday on terrorism. Minutes after Trump’s announcement, Bolton contradicted the president on Twitter, saying that he had offered to resign Monday night and Trump deferred the discussion.

Trump and Bolton had disagreed on “many, many issues,” White House Press Secretary Stephanie Grisham said. Most recently, Bolton had advised the president against a meeting he had planned with the Taliban at Camp David to complete negotiations to end the war in Afghanistan.

Bolton was also skeptical of Trump’s overtures to Kim Jong Un. He was conspicuously absent in June when Trump made a snap decision to meet the North Korean leader at the Demilitarized Zone; Bolton instead traveled to Mongolia to meet with officials there.

Bolton’s departure is a boon for Secretary of State Michael Pompeo, who had clashed with the national security adviser and now assumes an unchallenged role as Trump’s closest adviser on foreign policy. Charlie Kupperman, the deputy national security adviser, will assume Bolton’s position on an acting basis, deputy White House press secretary Hogan Gidley said.

Kupperman is a Bolton confidant who has counseled the former national security adviser for more than 30 years, Bolton has said. Grisham said it was “too soon to say” whether Bolton’s National Security Council staff would remain in their jobs.

Possible Bolton replacements discussed by Trump associates include Robert O’Brien, who is the president’s envoy for hostage affairs, and Brian Hook, Pompeo’s senior policy adviser. Additionally, the U.S. ambassador to Germany, Richard Grenell, is expected to return to Washington and meet with Trump on Saturday, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Foreign Setbacks

Gidley said in an interview on Fox News after Trump’s announcement that it had become “very clear that John Bolton’s policies and priorities did not align with President Trump’s.”

The break came days after Trump abandoned his plan to meet with the Taliban at Camp David, capping a tough week. On Friday, the president’s adviser on North Korea said negotiations have been stalled for months. On Thursday, Middle East envoy Jason Greenblatt announced his intention to depart; the vaunted Israeli-Palestinian peace plan he’s been working on has yet to be unveiled. The U.S.-China trade war drags on.

Crude oil futures reversed an earlier gain in New York, falling 0.8% to settle at $57.40 a barrel.

Bolton, 70, joined the White House in April 2018, bringing an interventionist view into Trump’s inner circle.

From the outset, Bolton seemed like an odd fit for a president who champions an “America First” agenda and campaigned on disengaging the U.S. from wars prosecuted by his predecessors. At times, Bolton pursued his own longstanding foreign policy priorities, creating tension with top administration officials and the president himself.

Bolton came to the post best known for his ardent support of the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq while serving in the George W. Bush administration. He was later a Fox News contributor and senior fellow at the conservative American Enterprise Institute.

Since joining Trump’s White House, Bolton sought to break Iran financially, shield Americans from the reach of the International Criminal Court and toughen U.S. posture toward Russia. Bolton was a leading voice promoting U.S. support for the ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, an effort that hasn’t been successful.

Western diplomats view Bolton’s departure as a sign that a meeting between Trump and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is increasingly likely to happen at the U.N. General Assembly later this month, according to a person familiar with the situation.

Trump has offered to meet Rouhani to discuss a new agreement to prevent the country from obtaining nuclear weapons, but the Iranians have demanded that the U.S. first relax sanctions on Tehran. Bolton has been an outspoken critic of the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran that Trump abandoned and has urged increased economic pressure on the Islamic Republic.

‘Naive Worldview’

Bolton’s departure drew mixed reactions from Republican lawmakers.

Senator Mitt Romney, the Utah Republican, said it was a “huge loss” for the administration. Bolton’s “point of view is not always the same as everyone else in the room. That’s why you want him there,” Romney said.

Senator Rand Paul, the Kentucky Republican, said the threat of war “goes down exponentially with John Bolton out of the White House.”

“I think his advocacy for regime change around the world is a naïve worldview and I think the world will be a much better place with a new adviser,” Paul said.

Weeks before joining the administration, Bolton wrote a Wall Street Journal op-ed arguing for a preemptive strike against North Korea, only for Trump to instead pursue diplomacy with Kim. Bolton said that his personal views were “now behind me” and that “the important thing is what the president says and what advice I give him.”

Kelly Conflict

Bolton also took a hard line on immigration policy, and clashed with former White House Chief of Staff John Kelly over the administration’s approach to border crossings.

Last year, Kelly and Bolton engaged in a heated argument outside the Oval Office over immigration and the performance of then-Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen. Bolton was among the officials who urged Trump to fire Nielsen.

Bolton, whom the president sometimes called “the Mustache” because of his trademark facial hair, clashed with Pompeo and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin over sanctions against Iran. Bolton has argued that waivers for the sanctions were too generous toward Iran.

Bolton had been scheduled to brief reporters at the White House with Mnuchin and Pompeo on Tuesday.

Bolton suffered the loss of his top deputy, Mira Ricardel, in November after first lady Melania Trump called for her ouster. Melania Trump issued an unusual public statement demanding Ricardel leave the White House after clashes between Bolton’s deputy and the first lady’s staff over her trip to Africa last year.

Trump’s first national security advisor, Michael Flynn, resigned after less than one month in the job following revelations that he was under investigation for his communications with Russian officials prior to Trump’s inauguration. Flynn pleaded guilty in December 2017 to lying to federal agents about the contacts.

A retired Army general, H.R. McMaster, replaced Flynn in the role and endured public criticism from his boss during his tenure, which lasted just over a year. Trump chastised McMaster on Twitter for telling a forum in Germany that it was “incontrovertible” that Russia had interfered in the 2016 presidential election. Trump said McMaster must have forgotten to say the meddling hadn’t impacted the results of the vote.

Photo: Wikicommons

White House Insists Not Seeking Iran Regime Change

The White House insisted Monday it was not seeking the overthrow of Iran's clerical regime even as it seeks at the United Nations to pile pressure on Tehran.

"As I have said repeatedly, regime change in Iran is not the administration's policy," national security advisor John Bolton told reporters as he previewed President Donald Trump's week at the global body.

"We've imposed very stringent sanctions on Iran, more are coming, and what we expect from Iran is massive changes in their behavior."

"And until that happens we will continue to exert what the president has called maximum pressure," he said.

As a private citizen, Bolton had advocated supporting Iran's armed opposition, a position reiterated recently by former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani, who serves as Trump's personal lawyer.

Trump, who has warm relations with Iranian rivals Saudi Arabia and Israel, has pulled the United States out of an international agreement to constrict Iran's nuclear program and instead has restored sanctions.

Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has accused US allies Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates of supporting Arab separatists who killed 24 people at a military parade last week in southwestern Iran.

Photo Credit: Wikicommons