Iran Tankers Go Dark to Keep Selling Oil

Working from their small offices in Stockholm, analysts at a new watchdog that monitors global oil shipments have been run ragged by Iran's efforts to skirt US sanctions this month.

In late October, every single one of Iran's vessels "went dark", switching off their transponders to avoid international tracking systems—a first since TankerTrackers.com began operating in 2016.

The ships can now only be tracked manually using satellite imagery.

"It's the first time I've seen a blanket black-out. It's very unique," co-founder Samir Madani told AFP. 

It is part of efforts by Iran and its customers to keep oil flowing ahead of a new US embargo set to hit on Monday. 

"Iran has around 30 vessels in the Gulf area, so the past 10 days have been very tricky, but it hasn't slowed us down. We are keeping watch visually," added co-founder Lisa Ward.

Huge improvements in commercially available satellite imagery in recent years have allowed firms like TankerTrackers to watch the progress of vessels on a daily basis, where once images would have come only once a week or more.

Iran hopes less transparency will allow it to keep selling oil after November 5 when the United States reimposes the last set of sanctions lifted under the 2015 nuclear deal, which Washington abandoned in May. 

But Joel Hancock, from analysis firm Natixis, said this did not mean their sales would necessarily remain high. 

"The main issue with tanker trackers is they are tracking exports, maybe not sales," he told AFP, adding that the ships could just be moving oil to storage facilities in China or elsewhere. 

Another method—used during the last sanctions period between 2010 and 2015—is to keep oil on huge tankers off the Gulf Coast. 

TankerTrackers says there are currently six vessels, with a total of 11 million barrels of capacity, parked offshore as floating storage containers—freeing up port capacity and allowing for quick deliveries.

'Dead in the Water'

Although precise figures are rarely available in the notoriously opaque oil market, most analysts say Iran's exports dropped from around 2.5 million barrels per day in April to roughly 1.6 million in October.

Countries with close security and trade ties with the US were quick to cut their purchases—South Korea went almost straight to zero, with Japan and much of Europe close behind. 

Although the European Union has vowed to create a "special purpose vehicle" (SPV) to protect companies buying oil, analysts see little chance that firms will risk US penalties by using it. 

"The SPV is currently dead in the water. It can't handle oil in any serious volume," said Henry Rome, a specialist on Iran sanctions for the Washington-based Eurasia Group consultancy. 

The US granted waivers to eight countries but only on condition they make substantial cuts to their purchases.

But the trickiest customers for the US in its "maximum pressure" campaign are the biggest buyers, India and China.

China, the largest buyer of Iranian oil, has been surprisingly willing to play ball with sanctions so far, in part because it has bigger fish to fry in the form of its ongoing trade war with Washington. 

During the last sanctions period, China funneled almost all its Iranian transactions through the Bank of Kunlun, controlled by Chinese state energy group CNPC, which was sanctioned by the US in 2012 but shielded the rest of the sector from penalties. 

"Kunlun was a sacrificial lamb in the past... but Chinese banks appear to have realised the immense risk and are a lot more cautious," said Rome. 

Unconfirmed reports suggested this month that the Bank of Kunlun was quietly halting transactions with Iran. 

But China is likely to seek new paths to keep the oil flowing, according to Rome.

"It looks like they'll open another channel, maybe another bank, and keep importing sizable amounts, but there's still a lot to work out," he said.

India, another major buyer, will also be looking for mechanisms as they did during the last sanctions period. 

"The difference last time was that sanctions were phased in gradually over a long period," said Rome.

"There's a certain panic this time that they are being required to make very substantial reductions immediately, and also that banking systems are much more intertwined than in the past." 

Even if Iran can continue to sneak oil out of its ports, it will find it difficult to get the cash into its accounts. 

“Iran is a formidable adversary, well practiced in different techniques to keep selling oil and muddle the data, but that won't be a panacea for everything," said Rome. 

Photo Credit: Depositphotos

Iran's Options to Face Down US Oil Sanctions

Iran faces a potentially crushing loss of oil exports when US sanctions return in November, but the impact could be blunted by its experience of working around embargoes.

When Iran faced its toughest international sanctions between 2012 and 2015, analysts say it found a number of creative solutions, from repainting and renaming ships to switching off their tracking devices.

Those tactics have continued.

"We find those tankers quite often, leaving and entering Iran in a covert fashion with their transponder turned off," said Samir Madani, co-founder of TankerTrackers.com, which monitors the oil trade.

"We spot them through satellites. I'd say several vessels a month," he told AFP.

Analysts expect such behavior to ramp up when US sanctions on Iran's oil industry return on November 5, following Washington's withdrawal from the nuclear deal in May.

US pressure has already caused a 24 percent drop in Iran's sales between May and August, according to Bloomberg.

The big surprise has been cuts by Asian buyers, which analysts expected to resist US pressure, notably a 35 percent drop by China and 49 percent by India, according to the Eurasia Group consultancy.

"We underestimated the degree to which New Delhi and Beijing would concede to Washington's demands," it said in a briefing note.

Eurasia Group said wider geopolitics are at play: India is looking to deepen strategic ties with the US, while China may wish to avoid a fresh spat when it is already embroiled in a bitter trade dispute with Washington. 

Iran was exporting 2.7 million barrels of oil per day in May, but that has already fallen to 2.1 million.

Overall, Eurasia Group predicts the country's sales will fall by a further 0.9 million barrels per day to 1.2 million by November.

That would mean a loss of some USD 2-2.5 billion a month, at current prices.

'Cat and Mouse'

But analysts say Washington's goal of reducing Iran's oil sales to zero is unrealistic.

Iran has the world's fourth-largest reserves, and many countries—particularly in Asia—rely on its supplies and have refineries designed for its particular flavor of heavy crude.

And Tehran has many tried and tested ways to keep oil flowing.

It has already increased price discounts since May, worth around USD 10-15 million a month to large importers like China and India compared with last year, said Wood Mackenzie, a consultancy.

"Buyers can pay in kind, trade in other currencies, or extend credit—even keep the money in an escrow account in Switzerland and wait until these sanctions are over. India had a deal like that last time," said Madani.

If Iran can get its oil to a friendly port, it could be blended with oil from elsewhere and resold, said Thijs Van de Graaf, assistant professor for international politics at the University of Ghent.

"Iran played a cat and mouse game last time... and will probably do so again," he told AFP.

It also has more aggressive options, with President Hassan Rouhani recently restating an old threat to block the vital Strait of Hormuz through which around a third of the world's seaborne oil passes every day.

Rouhani announced last week that Iran was moving its main oil terminal out of the Gulf to a port in the Oman Sea, so that its tankers would no longer need to pass through the strait, giving it more scope to disrupt supplies.

Pressure on Europe

Iran says it will not accept major drops in its oil sales, putting pressure particularly on Europe, which was buying more than a fifth of its oil, to resist US demands.

The EU strongly opposed Washington's decision to scrap the nuclear deal and has vowed to introduce a package of measures to protect trade with Iran.

But European firms are highly vulnerable to US sanctions.

Shipping, banking and insurance firms have already backed out of Iran and oil purchases are down by 35 percent.

"If we cannot continue (the previous) level of sales even after the European package has been implemented, then that is a red line for us," warned deputy foreign minister Abbas Araghchi on state television.

Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned recently that Iran would "set aside" the nuclear deal if it was no longer receiving the economic benefits it promised.

One slight upside for Iran is that oil prices are already rising due to the squeeze caused by the looming US sanctions.

Some analysts predict prices could exceed USD 100 per barrel, from the current level of around USD 70.

The United States has pressured its ally Saudi Arabia to pump more oil to compensate for the loss of Iranian supplies.

"In theory, it is perfectly possible to have an increased price of oil that entirely compensates for the loss of exports. That's why the US-Saudi relationship is key here," said Van der Graaf.

Photo Credit: IRNA