State Department Says No Change in Plan to End Iran Oil Waivers

By Nick Wadhams

The U.S. State Department sought to quash speculation that the Trump administration is easing its clampdown on Iranian oil exports after a sanctions waiver program ended May 2, saying there has been no softening in the American stance that any country buying Iran’s oil would be subject to penalties.

A U.S. decision not to renew the six-month waivers allowing limited exports is final and no more trade will be permitted, Brian Hook, the U.S. special representative for Iran, said in a statement to Bloomberg News on Thursday. The U.S. had previously granted waivers, known as significant reduction exceptions, to eight governments in November—China, India, South Korea, Japan, Turkey, Taiwan, Greece and Italy.

“Our firm policy is to completely zero out purchases of Iranian oil—period,” Hook said. “Any new purchases of oil initiated after the expiration of the SREs on May 2 will be subject to U.S. sanctions, even if a country had not met its previously negotiated purchase caps during the SRE period from November to May 2.”

The statement was intended to clarify comments Hook made during a news briefing earlier Thursday. Those remarks were construed as saying the U.S. would allow countries to keep buying Iranian oil after May 2 as long as they remained under the limits the U.S. set out when it originally granted the waivers.

For weeks, oil traders have asked how tough the U.S. stance really is and whether there would be any loopholes for buyers of Iranian crude following the decision to end the waivers. Thursday’s statement sought to clarify that the only possible exception to the position would be for oil that was already en route to its destination before the waivers expired.

“If oil was purchased, loaded and en route to its destination prior to the expiration of the significant reduction exceptions on May 2, these cargoes would not exceed the agreed-to caps on imports of Iranian crude oil negotiated under the now-expired SREs,” Hook said.

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Trump Playing Hardball Gives Iran Oil Buyers Costly Headache

The biggest buyers of Iranian oil are being struck by deja vu, and it’s not conjuring up pleasant memories.

Six months ago they were scrambling to secure alternative supplies as the U.S. prepared to impose sanctions on Iranian oil exports, though last minute waivers eventually gave them a reprieve. Now, the Donald Trump administration says it won’t renew those same waivers, forcing the buyers to find a replacement for the Persian Gulf barrels.

Asia is more dependent on oil imports than any other region and has been repeatedly buffeted by America’s campaign to isolate Iran, once OPEC’s second-largest producer. While they’ll be able to find other supplies, they face the prospect of having to pay more, potentially accelerating inflation and putting pressure on their economies.

Importers had been expecting the waivers to be extended, perhaps with a cut in permitted volumes instead of an outright ban, according to refinery officials in Asia. They’d put purchases for May on hold as they awaited the U.S. decision.

One buyer, South Korea’s Hanwha Total Petrochemical Co., said it’s possible to find alternatives, but they’ll cost more and potentially affect the firm’s profits because they largely depend on the price of raw materials. The company has been importing and testing other supply from areas such as Africa and Australia, a spokesman said.

The White House said on Monday that its decision is intended to bring Iran’s oil exports to zero and squeeze the Persian Gulf state’s principal source of revenue. The U.S. wants to force Iran back to negotiations over its nuclear program. Any buyer importing crude after the waivers expire on May 2 faces the risk of being cut off from the American financial system.

Elusive Alternatives

While Trump said in a tweet that Saudi Arabia and other producers in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will make up for any shortfall, that prospect will not necessarily bring relief to buyers. South Korea, for example, is highly dependent on a type of ultra-light oil known as condensate from Iran that’s used by the Asian nation’s petrochemical producers.

These companies will be hit especially hard by the U.S. decision to eliminate waivers, according to four condensate traders interviewed by Bloomberg. That’s because Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates—among the biggest OPEC producers—export only limited supplies of the ultra-light oil, which is used in units known as splitters to produce petrochemicals and plastic components, they said.

Unipec, the trading arm of China’s state-owned refining giant Sinopec, hasn’t been approached by Saudi Arabia or the U.A.E. with more oil offers, said a person familiar with its procurement plan who asked not to be identified as the information is private. While the firm expected America to renew waivers at least with limited volumes, it had a contingency plan for an end to shipments, said the person, adding that it will seek to import more from the Middle East, West Africa and the U.S.

Caught by Surprise

An official at another major South Korean refiner also said it was caught off-guard by the U.S. decision, and still remained hopeful that the U.S. would ultimately extend waivers allowing at least some Iranian imports. Based on Bloomberg’s ship-tracking data, Asian buyers such as China, India, Japan and South Korea accounted for more than 80 percent of the Islamic Republic’s total crude and condensate exports in March.

Saudi Arabia, for its part, will coordinate with other crude producers to ensure that adequate supplies are available and the market “does not go out of balance,” Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih said after the Trump administration announced the end of the waivers.

One person familiar with the U.S. decision announced Monday said that some of the countries that had previously received waivers would be given a little more time to wind down purchases. The person described that not as a waiver but more as a brief grace period.

Crude Gains

Global benchmark Brent crude rose to a six-month high, moving toward $75 a barrel in London after the U.S. decision. Front-month futures were at $74.33 a barrel at 11:43 a.m. in London. West Texas Intermediate, the American marker, also jumped and is trading near $66 a barrel in New York.

Some refiners in India—which had been negotiating hard with the U.S. for the waivers to be renewed—sought to play down the impact on Monday. Indian Oil Corp., the nation’s top importer of Iranian crude, has enough supplies of alternative feedstock, said a company official who asked not to be identified because of internal policy.

The company intends to use built-in options in its oil contracts with Kuwait, Abu Dhabi, Saudi Arabia and Mexico to procure more crude from those sources, thus making up for any shortfall from the Persian Gulf state, the official said. Fellow domestic refiner Hindustan Petroleum Corp. is confident there won’t be supply constraints, according to Chairman M.K. Surana.

HPCL has reduced its purchases from the Islamic Republic and has limited exposure to U.S. sanctions, he said in a phone interview, though he added that a halt in supplies from Iran would likely push oil prices higher in coming months.

Photo: Bloomberg

U.S. Waiver Concern Sees Iranian Oil Buyers Put Imports on Hold

The biggest buyers of Iranian oil are said to be putting their purchases on hold as they wait to see whether the White House will extend waivers allowing them to keep buying the crude.

Most Asian buyers are avoiding imports for next month as it’s unclear what will happen to the exemptions that are set to expire in the first week of May, according to people with knowledge of the matter. Even if the waivers are extended, it would be too late to order and receive cargoes for the month, said the people who asked not to be identified as the information is private.

The U.S.’s surprise decision last year to allow eight nations to keep buying Iranian oil was a big contributor to the plunge in crude prices in the fourth quarter. While the White House appears keen to keep the pressure on the Persian Gulf nation, analysts including FGE have speculated that preventing further gains in oil prices is a bigger priority for President Donald Trump. Given that crude has recovered strongly this year, that suggests that at least some of the waivers may be extended.

At least five refiners in South Korea, Japan and China are not planning to import Iranian crude and condensate loading in May, the people said. Some Korean and Japanese processors have already bought alternative cargoes for the period, while Iran is being flexible with its customers on timing, they said. Iranian shipments take over 20 days to reach east Asia, meaning there won’t be enough time for the cargoes to load and arrive during the same month.

Japanese refiners say imports from Iran might start loading in June at the earliest if the exemptions are extended, the people said. The nation took 108,000 barrels a day of Iranian supplies last month, tanker tracking data from Bloomberg show.

India, on the other hand, may take some shipments next month if the waivers are extended because shipping time from Iran is only about a week, the people said. The South Asian nation was already in discussions for an extension of the waiver and the country’s processors are allowed to import 9 million barrels of Iranian oil every month under the 180-day exemption.

Photo: Bloomberg

Trump Team Split Over Iran Oil Waivers as Next Deadline Nears

President Donald Trump’s national security team is deeply divided over whether to let a small group of countries keep buying Iranian oil after a U.S. deadline on sanctions waivers expires in May. Now that fight is getting ugly.

The division—primarily between John Bolton’s National Security Council and Michael Pompeo’s State Department—has led to rising frustration and flared tempers. It’s exposing fault lines over how the president’s most senior advisers approach the Iran issue, according to four people familiar with the debate who asked not to be identified discussing the internal deliberations.

Above the fray, at least for now, is a president who must weigh competing priorities. While Trump wants to make good on his “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran and strong-arm it into meeting U.S. demands—including ending its ballistic missile tests and support for Hezbollah—there’s also concern that squeezing Tehran too much will lead to a spike in oil prices. That could raise gasoline costs for U.S. drivers as the 2020 election approaches.

Favoring a tougher tack, Bolton and his team point out that oil prices remain low—about USD 59 a barrel as of Monday. But that could change quickly depending on production moves by OPEC nations as well as the administration’s separate efforts to choke off Venezuelan oil sales in a bid to push President Nicolas Maduro from office.

“The administration will really be weighing its desire to put the screws further on Iran against its allergy to oil over USD 70 a barrel,” said Meghan O’Sullivan, a former deputy national security adviser now at the Harvard Kennedy School. “It is risky for the administration to think that it can drive a hard policy which contracts the oil supply from both Iran and Venezuela simultaneously.”

A spokesman for the White House National Security Council said agencies are coordinating closely to apply maximum pressure on Iran. A State Department official said the U.S. goal remains to get to zero Iranian oil exports as quickly as possible, adding that the secretary of state alone has the discretion to grant exemptions.

There’s little doubt the U.S. sanctions have pinched Iran: Oil revenue has tumbled, the rial has been battered and shortages of meat, medicine and gasoline are spreading. Iran’s supreme leader this week even called European efforts to sustain trade with Iran outside of U.S. sanctions “a joke.”

Price Spike

Trump has until the first week of May to decide whether to issue new waivers to eight governments—China, India, Japan, Turkey, Italy, Greece, South Korea and Taiwan—that were allowed in November to keep buying Iranian oil without facing penalties. The current speculation is that the biggest buyers of Iranian crude, including China and India, will get waivers again.

But Bolton and officials in the Energy Department argue that it’s time for the administration to make good on its demands to push Iran’s oil exports to zero. Pompeo’s team, led by Iran special representative Brian Hook, caution that a sudden removal of Iranian crude from the market—about 1.1 million barrels a day—would fuel volatility and lead to a price spike.

A key analyst who has advised the White House on its approach said the intensifying squabble underscores just how much more politicized the debate over the waivers has become as the U.S. presidential election in 2020 grows nearer.

“If you think Trump will be a two-term president, you have about six years and you can afford to go more slowly,” said Mark Dubowitz, chief executive officer of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “But if you think there’s a risk that he’s a one-term president, then he’s got 21 months left and you want to throw everything you can at the regime.”

Pompeo, a hard-line conservative on most issues, and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin find themselves increasingly isolated from Bolton and their usual allies on Capitol Hill, including Republican Senators Marco Rubio and Tom Cotton, who have argued for the U.S. not to grant any more waivers.

“The Iranian regime uses its petrodollars to fund terrorism and sow chaos throughout the region,” Cotton tweeted on March 18. “Going forward, the proper amount of oil exports from Iran is zero.”

According to two GOP aides familiar with the thinking of Senator James Risch, the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, the Idaho Republican believes any new waiver will need “substantial justification” to be granted. Risch also thinks there’s more than enough oil sloshing around global markets to counter the crude removed from Iran, thanks to Saudi Arabia and the U.S., according to the people.

As the debate plays out, Pompeo is also facing pressure from his own ambassadors. According to one of the people, Kay Bailey Hutchison, the U.S. ambassador to NATO, is among several who especially oppose giving Turkey another waiver. They argue that would send the wrong message when the U.S. is pushing NATO allies to cut ties with Tehran.

The debate has moved along enough that Hook and his allies have lost several key supporters who were previously open to the waivers but now believe issuing them sends the wrong signal.

“I’m sympathetic to where Brian Hook and Secretary Pompeo are in striking a balance between zero Iranian oil and global oil prices,” Dubowitz said. “But today’s oil market supports zero. So either you’re running a maximum pressure campaign against Iran or you’re not.”

Photo Credit: Bloomberg