Trump, Iran Drama Escalates—via Twitter

Tensions are mounting between Donald Trump and Iran—the US president's raw tweet threatening Tehran was met Monday with a similarly bilious reply, upping the ante in the high-stakes game of diplomatic chicken.

Trump's tweeted warning late Sunday to Iranian President Hassan Rouhani—all in capital letters, the digital equivalent of shouting—sparked questions about Washington's strategy towards the Islamic republic.

The US is regularly suspected of backing the idea of regime change, but analysts say its current stance may simply be an attempt to pivot after a week of dire headlines over Trump's much-maligned summit with Russia's Vladimir Putin and a relative lack of progress on North Korea.

The saber-rattling began when Iranian President Hassan Rouhani cautioned Trump not to "play with the lion's tail," saying that conflict with Iran would trigger the "mother of all wars"—prompting the furious salvo from the US leader.

The Republican leader's response was reminiscent of the belligerent tone he took with North Korea last year.

"NEVER, EVER THREATEN THE UNITED STATES AGAIN OR YOU WILL SUFFER  CONSEQUENCES THE LIKES OF WHICH FEW THROUGHOUT HISTORY HAVE EVER SUFFERED BEFORE," Trump warned Rouhani on Twitter.

"WE ARE NO LONGER A COUNTRY THAT WILL STAND FOR YOUR DEMENTED WORDS OF VIOLENCE & DEATH. BE CAUTIOUS!"

A few hours later, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif fired back. "COLOR US UNIMPRESSED," Zarif wrote in English, mimicking Trump's caps-lock message.

"We've been around for millennia & seen fall of empires, incl our own, which lasted more than the life of some countries. BE CAUTIOUS!"

While Trump's "tough stand" was hailed by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, it also provoked an avalanche of questions about its exact meaning and impact.

When asked about the president's motivations, White House spokeswoman Sarah Sanders said he was focused on "the safety and security of the American people" and ensuring Tehran did not acquire nuclear weapons.

But she seemed to downplay concerns about his aggressive posturing, saying Trump has been "pretty strong since day one in his language toward Iran."

Concerns? 'None at all'

In May, Trump—who has made Iran his public enemy number one—announced the US withdrawal from what he called a "defective" multinational nuclear deal with Tehran, and moved to reinstate punishing sanctions.

For some analysts in Washington, Trump's harsh words were a political smoke screen.

"Frustrated by no progress w/NK; angered by negative push back post Helsinki, Trump is looking to vent, act tough, and change channel," said Aaron David Miller, a former US diplomat and Middle East negotiator for several administrations.

"If nothing else, Trump's ALL CAPS tirade reflect(s) reality that US has no Iran policy. Empty/ridiculous US rhetoric in response to same from Iran."

After speaking with European officials about Trump's warnings, International Crisis Group president Rob Malley said diplomats on the continent were not "really taking it seriously."

In Europe, Trump's tirade is seen as a way to distract from controversy over his summit with Putin and special counsel Robert Mueller's investigation into possible collusion between the Trump campaign and a Russian effort to sway the 2016 election.

But the president stood by his remarks. Asked by reporters at the White House whether he had concerns about provoking tensions with Iran, Trump said "None at all."

Saber-Rattling

While US ties with Iran and North Korea are different on several fronts, the words used by Trump to denigrate Tehran are similar in tone to those he directed last August at North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

Several observers noted the similarities between the threats on Iran, and Trump's "maximum pressure" campaign towards Pyongyang.

In September 2017, in his first speech to the United National General Assembly, Trump threatened to "totally destroy" North Korea.

Nearly a year on, Trump has met Kim—who he once called "Rocket Man" on a "suicide mission"—for a landmark summit, and follow-up talks are underway between the two sides.

However, concrete progress has been scant so far on denuclearization of the Korean peninsula.

Democrats have expressed alarm about Trump's Iran bluster.

"Reckless Iran rhetoric creates risks—especially if words are unbacked by actionable strategy," Senator Richard Blumenthal said.

Photo Credit: Wikicommons

Fate of Iran Deal Now in Europe's Hands: Obama Advisor

Rob Malley, the conflict resolution specialist and former advisor to Barack Obama who helped negotiate the Iran nuclear accord, has no doubt that Donald Trump will now try to kill it.

The US president is expected to announce on Tuesday that he will re-impose economic sanctions on Tehran—effectively pulling the US out—but that does not mean the deal is dead and buried.

Malley, now the head of the International Crisis Group peace-building think tank, said in an interview that the 2015 agreement's original European backers must try to keep Tehran inside the deal.

Through his constant attacks on the "terrible" agreement, Trump has shifted the narrative away from the prior international consensus that the deal has successfully curtailed Iran's nuclear ambitions.

But Malley, who served on Obama's White House National Security Council, holds out hope that fellow deal signatories Britain, France and Germany can work with Tehran to keep the agreement alive.

And the agreement, he argued, remains critical to preventing Iran from resuming its alleged search for a nuclear weapon.

"This is the most comprehensive verification regime ever negotiated by a country other than one that's been defeated in war," Malley said in Washington on the eve of Trump's decision.

"If they do try to cheat, there are so many tripwires to know when they're cheating, where they're cheating... it would be discovered."

President Emmanuel Macron of France, Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany and British Prime Minister Theresa May have sought to "mollify" Trump by offering to negotiate tougher anti-Iran measures.

But they remained determined the Iran deal implementation mechanism—the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) -- must remain in place, even if a supplemental agreement is found.

Trump now seems unlikely to renew the US sanctions waivers that Obama announced as the US commitment under the JCPOA, but it is unclear whether Iran will seize on this to renew its nuclear program.

If Europe is willing to impose tougher penalties on Iran's ballistic missile program and regional military adventurism, Malley said, it is only because they want to preserve the underlying nuclear deal.

"It is a slight inflection, I won't deny that," he added. "And frankly, I think if what Trump wants is to be able to claim victory he could do that."

Perpetual Uncertainty

"He could say 'without me, Europe never would have cared so much about Iran's ballistic missiles program, never would have cared so much about its regional behavior.'" 

Malley said Trump is bent on undoing whatever foreign policy legacy Obama has, and fails to understand that pressure without compromise will not curtail Iran's other provocations.

"Either Trump will walk away from the deal or he will stick with the deal for another period and say I'm going to postpone my decision. I'm going to wait for the Europeans to fix it," Malley predicted.

"That's going to perpetuate all the uncertainty that currently surrounds the deal. That's going to make it very unlikely for businesses to invest in Iran."

"It's clear that the US is in the mode of killing the deal." Malley's International Crisis Group, therefore, has been urging the Europeans to shift their attention from Trump and to work instead on convincing an angry Tehran not to break its end of the bargain.

"It's going to be a very tough endeavor," he said. "What we try to do... is to say here are steps that the European can take mitigate the harm of the reimposition of US sanctions."

Smaller EU businesses that do not have investments in the United States that could be exposed to renewed US sanctions, could work together to do business with Iran, he suggested.

Economic Dividends

"It's not easy but that's the effort the Europeans need to be engaged in and Iranians too," Malley said. 

Such trade, he added, could show "why preserving this deal is better for Europe and it's better for Iran even if the economic dividends of the deal that Iran expected to get they're not going to see now."

And he has a message for the Iranians: "Isn't it better to have some kind of continued commercial and trade relations with Europe and have the US being isolated, than have you isolated and have the Europeans and the Americans on your case?

"Because the truth is if tomorrow the US reimposes the sanctions and the Iranian response is 'We're leaving the deal too,' Europe won't have the choice," Malley warned.

"They may blame president Trump (but) they will reimpose sanctions on Iran if Iran resumes its nuclear program."

Photo Credit: APB