US Presence Cause of Insecurity: Khamenei Tells Visiting Iraq PM

By Amir Havasi

Iran's supreme leader told Iraq's visiting premier on Tuesday that Tehran will not interfere in Baghdad's relations with Washington, but warned that the US presence next door to Iran was a cause of insecurity.

Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhemi of Iraq met Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the Iranian capital during his first trip abroad since taking office.

"Iran will not interfere in Iraq's relations with America but expects Iraqi friends to know America and realize that their presence in any country causes corruption, ruin and destruction," the Iranian leader said, according to his official website.

"The Islamic republic expects... (the Iraqi) parliament's decision to expel the Americans to be adhered to since their presence is a cause of insecurity."

Khamenei pointed to the US killing of Iran's top general Qasem Soleimani in a January drone strike in Baghdad, after which parliament voted to expel US troops.

"They killed your guest in your house and blatantly confessed to it."

Iran "will never forget this and will certainly deal a reciprocal blow to the Americans", Khamenei said.

Iran retaliated for Soleimani's death days after by firing a volley of missiles at US troops stationed in Iraq, but US President Donald Trump opted against responding militarily.

While the attack on the western Iraqi base of Ain al-Asad left no US soldiers dead, dozens suffered brain trauma.

According to Khamenei, Iran was opposed to "whatever may weaken the Iraqi government" in contrast to the US, which he said did not want "an independent, strong Iraqi government elected by popular vote".

Tug-of-War

Kadhemi had been scheduled to visit Iran's regional rival Saudi Arabia as his first trip abroad, then quickly follow it up with a trip to Tehran, in a carefully calibrated balancing act.

The Saudi leg was postponed after King Salman was hospitalised on Monday.

Baghdad has often found itself caught in the tug-of-war between Riyadh, Tehran and Washington, which Kadhemi is also set to visit within weeks.

Kadhemi rose to the premiership in May after serving as head of Iraq's National Intelligence Service for nearly four years.

He formed close ties to Tehran, Washington and Riyadh during that time, prompting speculation he could serve as a rare mediator between the capitals.

His trip to Tehran comes after he received Iran's top diplomat Mohammad Javad Zarif in Baghdad on Sunday.

Relations between the two countries were not always close -- they fought a bloody war from 1980 to 1988.

Tehran's influence in Baghdad grew after the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq toppled the government of Saddam Hussein.

Iran is now said to have significant leverage over many of Iraq's Shiite political groups.

$20 Billion Trade Goal

Iraq's delegation includes the ministers of foreign affairs, finance, health and planning, as well as Kadhemi's national security adviser, some of whom also met their Iranian counterparts.

Kadhemi also held talks with President Hassan Rouhani to discuss closer trade ties, fighting the novel coronavirus and efforts to ensure regional stability, state television said.

"The two governments' will is to expand bilateral trade ties to $20 billion," Rouhani said after their hour-long meeting.

Iraq is one of Iran's main markets for non-oil exports but trade has dipped as the COVID-19 pandemic forced temporary border closures.

Rouhani said Iran was ready to "stand with Iraq for the stability and security of Iraq and the region".

He hailed as "heroes" Soleimani and an Iraqi commander killed alongside him in the US drone strike near Baghdad airport.

"I deem it necessary to honor the two heroes of the fight against terrorism, martyrs General Qasem Soleimani and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis," he said.

The Iranian president also pledged to help Baghdad fight coronavirus.

Iran says COVID-19 has claimed more than 14,600 lives and infected 278,800 in the country, while Iraq has reported close to 4,000 virus deaths and 97,000 cases.

Photo: IRNA

US Grants Iraq Brief 30-Day Waiver for Iranian Gas Imports

Washington on Sunday granted Iraq a 30-day extension to a waiver allowing it to import Iranian gas for its dilapidated power grids despite American sanctions, an Iraqi official said. 

The extension comes as Baghdad faces a cocktail of crises, including collapsing oil prices and the novel coronavirus pandemic and political deadlock over government formation.

Iraq relies on gas and electricity imports from its neighbor Tehran to supply about a third of its power grid, crippled by years of conflict and poor maintenance.

The US blacklisted the Iranian energy sector in late 2018 and has granted Baghdad a series of waivers, usually for 45, 90 or 120 days.

Last month, Washington granted Iraq a 30-day extension—its shortest yet—and extended it again on Sunday.

"It is extended for another 30 days. There are no specific conditions," the Iraqi official told AFP. 

Iraqi officials had expected the waiver would be extended long enough to allow new prime minister designate Mustafa Kadhimi to pull together a government. 

The PM-designate is in talks with Iraq's political parties to form his first cabinet, and has until May 9 to submit it to parliament for a vote of confidence. 

Kadhimi had a strong showing of support from across Iraq's political spectrum when he was nominated, but disputes over ministerial positions appear to have worn it down. 

The US has pressured Iraq to use the waivers to become independent from Iranian energy, but progress has been slow.

OPEC's second-biggest producer relies on crude exports to fund more than 90 percent of its state budget, but the crash to prices under $30 per barrel has seriously undermined the government's fiscal position. 

In a further blow, coronavirus has spread across the country, with more than 1,800 confirmed cases and 87 deaths announced by the health ministry. 

Photo: Iraq PM

Iran-US Tensions Decrease in Iraq, For Now

By Maya Gebeily

It has been weeks since Iran-backed factions in Iraq traded fire with US forces, but experts warn the rivals could be using the time to prepare for an escalation.

After the last Katyusha rockets slammed into American installations in Iraq in March, the United States began planning an unprecedented bombing campaign in Iraq and new Iran-aligned factions threatened to kill Western ambassadors.

"Even if we haven't seen rocket attacks, the Iranians are repositioning themselves for something else," said Phillip Smyth, who researches Shiite armed factions for the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

"Meanwhile, US troops in Iraq are hunkered down and taking the threat more seriously," Smyth said.

Those troops, deployed as part of the coalition fighting the Islamic State group, have been hit by more than two dozen rocket attacks that have grown gradually deadlier.

Last month, the Pentagon began drafting plans for a major escalation against the Iran-backed factions—namely the hardline Kataeb Hezbollah—blamed for the rockets.

"Washington told us they'd simultaneously hit 122 targets in Iraq if more Americans died," a top Iraqi official said.

The scale of such bombing could have enormous consequences.

Coalition head General Pat White feared it could spin out of control, writing to US Central Command in March with "concerns" that targeted groups would respond, putting thousands of coalition troops in "significant" danger, according to a US military official who saw White's memo.

Non-US coalition members are "nervous" the bombing could kill civilians or push Baghdad to permanently oust foreign troops, diplomats from two coalition countries said.

The plan has been set aside for now as the US fights the spread of COVID-19, three Western diplomats said.

"But if there's another attack and it kills an American, then all of this comes back again," one told AFP.

Coalition 'No Longer Exists'

Washington and Tehran have already edged dangerously close to outright conflict after the US killed Iranian general Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad in January, prompting Iran to launch ballistic missiles at US troops in western Iraq.

Apparently fearing more strikes, the US deployed Patriot anti-missile batteries and C-RAM rocket defence systems to Iraq to protect its forces, a move which US officials acknowledged to AFP could be seen by Iran as provocative.

At the same time, it reduced the coalition's presence, pulling out of half the bases it once operated from in Iraq and withdrawing hundreds of trainers indefinitely as a precautionary measure against COVID-19.

As most non-US troops were trainers, that has left relatively more Americans in the remaining forces.

"The coalition as we knew it no longer exists," a Western diplomat from a coalition country told AFP.

A key lawmaker from Fatah, the bloc representing pro-Iran factions, cast doubt on Washington's intentions this week.

"The American side wasn't serious about withdrawing and handing over bases, and was actually re-deploying its troops for tactical reasons to protect its soldiers amid the spread of the coronavirus," said Mohammad Ghabban.

Kataeb Hezbollah has insisted the shifts should lead into a full and permanent withdrawal, raising the prospect of further rocket attacks.

"There will be no death for these forces if they keep withdrawing as part of a total departure from Iraq," the group said this month.

'Turn Up the Flame'

At the same time, apparently new factions have emerged.

In the last month, three previously unknown groups have called for rocket attacks, threatened the American and British ambassadors, and released rare drone footage of the US embassy in Baghdad and the western Ain al-Asad base, which hosts the most coalition troops.

Two top coalition officials said they suspect the groups were "the same old actors"—Kataeb Hezbollah and allies—who were "organising themselves slightly differently".

Smyth said it appeared Iran was restructuring its Iraqi allies and using front groups for plausible deniability.

"There's calm now, but they'll just turn up the flame once the situation improves for them," Smyth added.

In politics, too, the tug-of-war between Iran and the US over Iraq is at a critical juncture.

Premier-designate Mustafa Kadhimi, seen as a compromise figure, is preparing his cabinet and US officials are due to visit Baghdad in June for key talks.

"This was a roller-coaster relationship—it shouldn't be," said an Iraqi official with knowledge of the talks.

But if Kadhimi fails, a Western diplomat told AFP, the US may cast Iraq's government as irreversibly "hostile and pro-Iran" and introduce new sanctions.

Even the June talks could lead to more polarisation, said Renad Mansour, a researcher at Chatham House.

"The US want to push the Iraqi government to choose a side, which could be a risky move," he told AFP.

"It's almost making the Iraqi government decide: are you with us or against us?"

Photo: Wikicommons