U.S. Official Central to Hawkish Iran Policies Departs NSC

By Nick Wadhams

Richard Goldberg, the U.S. National Security Council official who clashed with other members of the administration over his push for a more hawkish stance toward Iran, is leaving the job after one year for personal reasons, a person familiar with the matter said.

Goldberg’s departure comes just as tensions with Iran have soared following a U.S. strike in Baghdad that killed Qassem Soleimani, a key Iranian general the administration said was plotting “imminent and sinister attacks” against American diplomats and military personnel.

Former National Security Adviser John Bolton created Goldberg’s job—director for countering Iran’s weapons of mass destruction—explicitly for him. The goal was to counter what Bolton saw as a desire at the departments of State and Treasury to weaken the “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran.

Tension over that issue flared in March as the administration mulled whether to extend waivers allowing Iran to sell a limited amount of oil. The waivers were eventually ended in May.

That fight was only one of the administration’s internecine battles related to Iran and underscored the influence wielded by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, the think tank where Goldberg previously worked, in pushing for a tougher line against Iran.

Goldberg will return to FDD, which continued to pay his salary during his time on the National Security Council.

Photo: IRNA

Trump Picks Hostage Envoy O’Brien for National Security Adviser

By Nick Wadhams

President Donald Trump said Wednesday he’ll appoint Robert O’Brien as his White House national security advisor, elevating the State Department’s top hostage envoy from relative obscurity to one of the most important jobs in U.S. government.

O’Brien had the backing of Secretary of State Michael Pompeo, whose central role shaping the administration’s foreign policy will be solidified by the appointment.

Trump fired the former national security advisor, John Bolton, last week after disputes over the administration’s foreign policy and Afghanistan, Iran and elsewhere. Trump said Tuesday he was considering a list of five finalists for the job, including O’Brien.

O’Brien has no known experience managing an organization the size of the National Security Council, which grew to about 400 employees under President Barack Obama but has been pared down under Trump.

Before being named hostage envoy, O’Brien had been a partner at a California law firm and advised the 2016 presidential campaigns of Texas Senator Ted Cruz and former Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker. He was now-Senator Mitt Romney’s senior foreign policy adviser when the Utah Republican ran for president in 2012.

O’Brien leads the State Department’s efforts to secure the release of U.S. hostages held by foreign governments, including North Korea and Iran. Previously, he worked for Bolton when he was United Nations ambassador in the George W. Bush administration. He was a State Department official under former Secretary Hillary Clinton.

But his foreign policy views largely align with Trump’s. In his book “While America Slept,” which was published shortly before the 2016 election and highlights his own foreign experience, O’Brien railed against what he called Obama’s “lead from behind” approach and accused the former president of emboldening “autocrats, tyrants and terrorists.”

It’s unclear what Trump meant when he said he’s worked “long and hard” with O’Brien. His most prominent role in the administration thus far engendered widespread derision: the president’s decision to dispatch him to Sweden to monitor legal proceedings involving A$AP Rocky, an American rapper who was arrested after a Stockholm street fight.

The rapper, whose real name is Rakim Mayers, was convicted and given a conditional jail sentence, but the Swedes released him after Trump took up his cause on Twitter.

O’Brien didn’t answer a phone call on Wednesday or respond to an email seeking comment.

Trump gave Pompeo a significant say in choosing the next national security adviser, after the secretary of State repeatedly clashed with Bolton. Bolton’s departure left Pompeo unchallenged as Trump’s closest foreign policy adviser.

Pompeo had favored O’Brien and Ricky Waddell, a former national security official in the Trump administration.

Photo: Wikicommons

Trump Discussed Easing Iran Sanctions, Prompting Bolton Pushback

By Jennifer Jacobs, Saleha Mohsin, and Jenny Leonard

President Donald Trump discussed easing sanctions on Iran to help secure a meeting with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani later this month, prompting then-National Security Advisor John Bolton to argue forcefully against such a step, according to three people familiar with the matter.

After an Oval Office meeting on Monday when the idea came up, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin voiced his support for the move as a way to restart negotiations with Iran, some of the people said. Later in the day, Trump decided to oust Bolton, whose departure was announced Tuesday.

The White House has started preparations for Trump to meet with Rouhani this month in New York on the sidelines of the annual United Nations General Assembly the week of Sept. 23, according to the people. It’s far from clear if the Iranians would agree to talks while tough American sanctions remain in place.

One scenario, shared by two of the people, would be that Trump joins a meeting between Rouhani and French President Emmanuel Macron. The people said they had no indication it would actually happen.

Brent oil prices fell more than 2% to $61.05 a barrel on the news.

While Trump has made no secret of his willingness to sit down with Iranian leaders -- a move that would break more than four decades of U.S. policy -- there are considerable political hurdles Trump would have to navigate if he wants it to happen. Nevertheless, Bolton’s ouster on Tuesday improves the odds of a meeting.

Bolton built his career on a hard-line approach toward Iran, long calling for preemptive strikes on the country to destroy its nuclear program. His sudden dismissal immediately fueled speculation—and worry in some quarters—that the U.S. “maximum pressure” campaign might ease in a bid to lure Iranian leaders to the negotiating table.

Easing any sanctions without major concessions from Iran would undercut the pressure campaign that not only Bolton, but also Secretary of State Michael Pompeo and Trump have said is the only effective way to make Iran change its behavior.

America’s European allies, frustrated by Trump’s withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear accord and stymied by U.S. sanctions in their bid to trade with Iran, have been desperate to find a way to broker a deal between Washington and Tehran. Macron even invited Iran’s foreign minister, Javad Zarif, to talks on the sidelines of the Group of Seven summit in France last month and won verbal support from Trump for a sanctions reprieve. Then nothing happened.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, on the other hand, may have lost one of its staunchest allies with Bolton’s departure. Israeli officials, worried about legitimizing Iranian leaders, are concerned that the chances for such a meeting are increasing. Their chief fear is that U.S. sanctions could be scaled back and pressure on the regime eased, an Israeli official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

But Iranian leaders, at least publicly, have spurned the suggestion of a Trump-Rouhani encounter, which would be strongly opposed by more conservative factions in Iran.

Secretary of State Michael Pompeo who last year set out 12 demands that he said Iran must fulfill in order to become a “normal country,” may try to prevent Trump from softening his stance too drastically. He has, however, recently taken a more moderate tone in lockstep with the president, saying the U.S. is prepared to talk without preconditions.

One thing all sides agree on is that tensions have soared in recent months, with a spate of attacks on oil tankers in and around the Persian Gulf that have been blamed on Iran. The Islamic Republic shot down an American drone it said was over its territorial waters, prompting Trump to consider military strikes that he said he called off at the last minute.

Charles Kupchan, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, said that at the very least, Bolton’s exit reduces the chances of a military escalation.

UN Meeting

“It’s too hard to say if a meeting will happen given the question of whether it’s politically palatable for both leaders,” said Kupchan. “But the likelihood of a meeting has gone up because one of its main detractors is now out of a job.”

If it happens, the most likely venue would be on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly meeting later this month. But that doesn’t mean it will.

Top Iranian officials have in recent weeks sought to stamp out talk of a direct meeting between the leaders, with Zarif calling it “unimaginable” and Rouhani saying he’s not interested in a photo-op with the American president. That’s a subtle reference to America’s outreach with North Korea, which despite three meetings between Trump and Kim Jong Un hasn’t resulted in any breakthrough.

Oman Talks

For Rouhani, sitting down with Trump would be an immense political gamble with his nation’s economy weighed down by crippling American sanctions and no guarantee of an agreement that would allow Tehran to again legally sell oil. Mindful of the political risk of talks with the U.S., Iranians have long favored quiet discussions instead. The 2015 nuclear deal was preceded by years of back channel diplomacy among lower-level officials in Oman.

Nevertheless, Rouhani adviser Hesameddin Ashena tweeted on Tuesday that Bolton’s departure is a “decisive sign of the failure of the U.S. maximum pressure strategy in the face of the constructive resistance from Iran.”

Trump, with his 2020 re-election campaign already underway, would also have to overcome considerable political obstacles to reach any deal with Iran. Isolating and weakening the Islamic Republic is one foreign policy issue Republican lawmakers and conservative national security experts broadly agree upon. It’s also a rallying cry for conservative Jewish supporters of Israel and key Trump backers, such as casino magnate Sheldon Adelson.

Obama Handshake

Regardless of whether a direct meeting takes place, diplomatic efforts to address Iran-U.S. tensions will be at the forefront of the UN gathering. Impromptu chats and sideline diplomacy are a hallmark of the annual gathering.

In 2015, a backstage handshake between President Barack Obama and Zarif generated headlines across the Middle East—and accusations by Iranian hardliners that Zarif was “unrevolutionary.” At this year’s assembly, Macron as well Japan’s Shinzo Abe plan to meet Rouhani as they try to break the impasse.

Bolton’s departure also leaves Pompeo, who had clashed with Bolton over several issues, in the unchallenged role as Trump’s closest aide on foreign policy. While Bolton often made his differences with the president clear, Pompeo has spent more than two and a half years in Trump’s orbit without letting much daylight come between himself and the president.

Asked on Tuesday if he could foresee a meeting between Trump and Rouhani during the UN meeting, Pompeo responded: “Sure,” adding, “The president’s made very clear, he is prepared to meet with no preconditions.”

Photo: Wikicommons

Trump-Rouhani Meeting Odds Improve After John Bolton's Exit

By David Wainer

Donald Trump has made no secret he’s willing to sit down with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, a move that would break more than four decades of U.S. policy. With John Bolton’s ouster as national security adviser, the odds of that meeting just got better.

Bolton built his career on a hardline approach toward Iran, long calling for preemptive strikes on the country to destroy its nuclear program. His sudden dismissal on Tuesday immediately fueled speculation—and worry in some quarters -- that the U.S. “maximum pressure” campaign might ease in a bid to lure Iranian leaders to the negotiating table.

America’s European allies, frustrated by Trump’s withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear accord and stymied by U.S. sanctions in their bid to trade with Iran, have been desperate to find a way to broker a deal between Washington and Tehran. French President Emmanuel Macron even invited Iran’s foreign minister, Javad Zarif, to talks on the sidelines of the Group of Seven summit in France last month and won verbal support from Trump for a sanctions reprieve. Then nothing happened.

“Bolton made sure to block any and all avenues for diplomacy w/ Iran, including a plan being brokered by Macron,” Suzanne DiMaggio, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said on Twitter. “The French are offering Trump a facing-saving way out of a mess of his creation. He should grab it.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, on the other hand, may have lost one of its staunchest allies with Bolton’s departure. Israeli officials, worried about legitimizing Iranian leaders, are concerned that the chances for such a meeting are increasing. Their chief fear is that U.S. sanctions could be scaled back and pressure on the regime eased, an Israeli official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

But Iranian leaders, at least publicly, have spurned the suggestion of a Trump-Rouhani encounter, which would be strongly opposed by more conservative factions in Iran.

Secretary of State Michael Pompeo who last year set out 12 demands that he said Iran must fulfill in order to become a “normal country,” may try to prevent Trump from softening his stance too drastically. He has, however, recently taken a more moderate tone in lockstep with the president, saying the U.S. is prepared to talk without preconditions.

One thing all sides agree on is that tensions have soared in recent months, with a spate of attacks on oil tankers in and around the Persian Gulf that have been blamed on Iran. The Islamic Republic shot down an American drone it said was over its territorial waters, prompting Trump to consider military strikes that he said he called off at the last minute.

Charles Kupchan, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, said that at the very least, Bolton’s exit reduces the chances of a military escalation.

UN Meeting

“It’s too hard to say if a meeting will happen given the question of whether it’s politically palatable for both leaders,” said Kupchan. “But the likelihood of a meeting has gone up because one of its main detractors is now out of a job.”

If it happens, the most likely venue would be on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly meeting later this month. But that doesn’t mean it will.

Top Iranian officials have in recent weeks sought to stamp out talk of a direct meeting between the leaders, with Zarif calling it “unimaginable” and Rouhani saying he’s not interested in a photo-op with the American president. That’s a subtle reference to America’s outreach with North Korea, which despite three meetings between Trump and Kim Jong Un hasn’t resulted in any breakthrough.

Oman Talks

For Rouhani, sitting down with Trump would be an immense political gamble with his nation’s economy weighed down by crippling American sanctions and no guarantee of an agreement that would allow Tehran to again legally sell oil. Mindful of the political risk of talks with the U.S., Iranians have long favored quiet discussions instead. The 2015 nuclear deal was preceded by years of back channel diplomacy among lower-level officials in Oman.

Nevertheless, Rouhani adviser Hesameddin Ashena tweeted on Tuesday that Bolton’s departure is a “decisive sign of the failure of the U.S. maximum pressure strategy in the face of the constructive resistance from Iran.”

Trump, with his 2020 re-election campaign already underway, would also have to overcome considerable political obstacles to reach any deal with Iran. Isolating and weakening the Islamic Republic is one foreign policy issue Republican lawmakers and conservative national security experts broadly agree upon. It’s also a rallying cry for conservative Jewish supporters of Israel and key Trump backers, such as casino magnate Sheldon Adelson.

Obama Handshake

Regardless of whether a direct meeting takes place, diplomatic efforts to address Iran-U.S. tensions will be at the forefront of the UN gathering. Impromptu chats and sideline diplomacy are a hallmark of the annual gathering.

In 2015, a backstage handshake between President Barack Obama and Zarif generated headlines across the Middle East—and accusations by Iranian hardliners that Zarif was “unrevolutionary.” At this year’s assembly, Macron as well Japan’s Shinzo Abe plan to meet Rouhani as they try to break the impasse.

Bolton’s departure also leaves Pompeo, who had clashed with Bolton over several issues, in the unchallenged role as Trump’s closest aide on foreign policy. While Bolton often made his differences with the president clear, Pompeo has spent more than two and a half years in Trump’s orbit without letting much daylight come between himself and the president.

Asked on Tuesday if he could foresee a meeting between Trump and Rouhani during the UN meeting, Pompeo responded: “Sure,” adding, “The president’s made very clear, he is prepared to meet with no preconditions.”

Photo: IRNA

Trump Fires Bolton as Top Security Adviser, Citing Disagreements

By Jennifer Jacobs, Nick Wadhams and Jennifer Epstein

President Donald Trump said he fired his hawkish national security adviser, John Bolton, after disagreeing “strongly” with many of his positions, ending a tumultuous tenure marked by multiple setbacks in U.S. foreign policy.

Bolton, known for his hardline approach to U.S. adversaries, including Iran, North Korea and Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, was the third person to formally occupy the White House’s highest-ranking national security job under Trump.

“I informed John Bolton last night that his services are no longer needed at the White House,” Trump said in a pair of tweets. “I thank John very much for his service. I will be naming a new National Security Advisor next week.”

Bolton had been scheduled to take part in a White House press briefing Tuesday on terrorism. Minutes after Trump’s announcement, Bolton contradicted the president on Twitter, saying that he had offered to resign Monday night and Trump deferred the discussion.

Trump and Bolton had disagreed on “many, many issues,” White House Press Secretary Stephanie Grisham said. Most recently, Bolton had advised the president against a meeting he had planned with the Taliban at Camp David to complete negotiations to end the war in Afghanistan.

Bolton was also skeptical of Trump’s overtures to Kim Jong Un. He was conspicuously absent in June when Trump made a snap decision to meet the North Korean leader at the Demilitarized Zone; Bolton instead traveled to Mongolia to meet with officials there.

Bolton’s departure is a boon for Secretary of State Michael Pompeo, who had clashed with the national security adviser and now assumes an unchallenged role as Trump’s closest adviser on foreign policy. Charlie Kupperman, the deputy national security adviser, will assume Bolton’s position on an acting basis, deputy White House press secretary Hogan Gidley said.

Kupperman is a Bolton confidant who has counseled the former national security adviser for more than 30 years, Bolton has said. Grisham said it was “too soon to say” whether Bolton’s National Security Council staff would remain in their jobs.

Possible Bolton replacements discussed by Trump associates include Robert O’Brien, who is the president’s envoy for hostage affairs, and Brian Hook, Pompeo’s senior policy adviser. Additionally, the U.S. ambassador to Germany, Richard Grenell, is expected to return to Washington and meet with Trump on Saturday, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Foreign Setbacks

Gidley said in an interview on Fox News after Trump’s announcement that it had become “very clear that John Bolton’s policies and priorities did not align with President Trump’s.”

The break came days after Trump abandoned his plan to meet with the Taliban at Camp David, capping a tough week. On Friday, the president’s adviser on North Korea said negotiations have been stalled for months. On Thursday, Middle East envoy Jason Greenblatt announced his intention to depart; the vaunted Israeli-Palestinian peace plan he’s been working on has yet to be unveiled. The U.S.-China trade war drags on.

Crude oil futures reversed an earlier gain in New York, falling 0.8% to settle at $57.40 a barrel.

Bolton, 70, joined the White House in April 2018, bringing an interventionist view into Trump’s inner circle.

From the outset, Bolton seemed like an odd fit for a president who champions an “America First” agenda and campaigned on disengaging the U.S. from wars prosecuted by his predecessors. At times, Bolton pursued his own longstanding foreign policy priorities, creating tension with top administration officials and the president himself.

Bolton came to the post best known for his ardent support of the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq while serving in the George W. Bush administration. He was later a Fox News contributor and senior fellow at the conservative American Enterprise Institute.

Since joining Trump’s White House, Bolton sought to break Iran financially, shield Americans from the reach of the International Criminal Court and toughen U.S. posture toward Russia. Bolton was a leading voice promoting U.S. support for the ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, an effort that hasn’t been successful.

Western diplomats view Bolton’s departure as a sign that a meeting between Trump and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is increasingly likely to happen at the U.N. General Assembly later this month, according to a person familiar with the situation.

Trump has offered to meet Rouhani to discuss a new agreement to prevent the country from obtaining nuclear weapons, but the Iranians have demanded that the U.S. first relax sanctions on Tehran. Bolton has been an outspoken critic of the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran that Trump abandoned and has urged increased economic pressure on the Islamic Republic.

‘Naive Worldview’

Bolton’s departure drew mixed reactions from Republican lawmakers.

Senator Mitt Romney, the Utah Republican, said it was a “huge loss” for the administration. Bolton’s “point of view is not always the same as everyone else in the room. That’s why you want him there,” Romney said.

Senator Rand Paul, the Kentucky Republican, said the threat of war “goes down exponentially with John Bolton out of the White House.”

“I think his advocacy for regime change around the world is a naïve worldview and I think the world will be a much better place with a new adviser,” Paul said.

Weeks before joining the administration, Bolton wrote a Wall Street Journal op-ed arguing for a preemptive strike against North Korea, only for Trump to instead pursue diplomacy with Kim. Bolton said that his personal views were “now behind me” and that “the important thing is what the president says and what advice I give him.”

Kelly Conflict

Bolton also took a hard line on immigration policy, and clashed with former White House Chief of Staff John Kelly over the administration’s approach to border crossings.

Last year, Kelly and Bolton engaged in a heated argument outside the Oval Office over immigration and the performance of then-Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen. Bolton was among the officials who urged Trump to fire Nielsen.

Bolton, whom the president sometimes called “the Mustache” because of his trademark facial hair, clashed with Pompeo and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin over sanctions against Iran. Bolton has argued that waivers for the sanctions were too generous toward Iran.

Bolton had been scheduled to brief reporters at the White House with Mnuchin and Pompeo on Tuesday.

Bolton suffered the loss of his top deputy, Mira Ricardel, in November after first lady Melania Trump called for her ouster. Melania Trump issued an unusual public statement demanding Ricardel leave the White House after clashes between Bolton’s deputy and the first lady’s staff over her trip to Africa last year.

Trump’s first national security advisor, Michael Flynn, resigned after less than one month in the job following revelations that he was under investigation for his communications with Russian officials prior to Trump’s inauguration. Flynn pleaded guilty in December 2017 to lying to federal agents about the contacts.

A retired Army general, H.R. McMaster, replaced Flynn in the role and endured public criticism from his boss during his tenure, which lasted just over a year. Trump chastised McMaster on Twitter for telling a forum in Germany that it was “incontrovertible” that Russia had interfered in the 2016 presidential election. Trump said McMaster must have forgotten to say the meddling hadn’t impacted the results of the vote.

Photo: Wikicommons

US Joins Israel in Accusing Iran as Nuclear Deal Flounders

By Shaun Tandon

The United States on Tuesday joined Israel in alleging "possible undeclared nuclear activities" by Iran, further straining European-led attempts to salvage a multinational deal.

Iran denounced the accusations leveled on Monday by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who said that the clerical regime operated a previously undisclosed site aimed at developing nuclear weapons but destroyed it after it was detected.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, without directly referencing Netanyahu, urged Iran to comply with the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency.

"The Iranian regime's lack of full cooperation with @iaeaorg raises questions about possible undeclared nuclear material or activities," Pompeo tweeted.

"The world won't fall for it. We will deny the regime all paths to a nuclear weapon."

The new charges come in a fraught political climate, with French President Emmanuel Macron leading efforts to save a 2015 nuclear accord with Iran from which President Donald Trump withdrew the United States.

Macron proposed a summit between Trump and the Iranian leadership, a prospect that sparked interest from the mogul-turned-president but which is adamantly opposed by Netanyahu, who is facing elections next week and sees Iran as an existential threat.

In an address on live television, Netanyahu showed pictures of an alleged site near Abadeh, south of Isfahan, where he said Iran conducted experiments to develop nuclear weapons.

Netanyahu said Israel found out about the site during a daring, previously announced raid into Tehran and that the regime demolished the site sometime between late June and late July after realizing that the Jewish state was aware.

Responding to Netanyahu, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif pointed out that Israel itself has a secret, but widely known, nuclear program.

"The possessor of REAL nukes cries wolf -- on an alleged 'demolished' site in Iran," he tweeted, as he also pointed to Netanyahu's comments as a private citizen in 2002 in support of invading Iraq.

Call for Prompt Answers

The acting head of the IAEA, Cornel Feruta, called Monday for Iran to "respond promptly" to questions from the agency.

But despite Pompeo's charges of lack of cooperation, the IAEA chief said his exchanges with Iranian officials have been "very substantial" and that he was "pleased with the tone and the input we received."

Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association, a non-governmental organization in Washington, said that the United States and Israel should recognize that IAEA access in Iran came thanks to the 2015 nuclear accord.

"If any IAEA member-state including the United States or Israel has credible information, they should give it to the agency rather than make a public-relations show out of this," Kimball said.

"As with many allegations about particular sites, it's the agency that needs to investigate because it's the only authority that has the technical means and objectivity to come up with the right conclusions," he said.

Kimball believed there was still a window for Macron's efforts to succeed, especially as Trump relishes an unorthodox approach to diplomacy.

But he warned that time may be running out, with Iran taking a series of steps to come out of strict compliance with the 2015 accord.

Series of Nuclear Steps

In the latest move, the IAEA confirmed that Iran was installing centrifuges at its Natanz facility that were more advanced than those allowed under the nuclear deal.

Iran wants to take small but symbolic steps to show its disappointment that it has not reaped benefits from the nuclear accord, under which it was promised sanctions relief in return for compliance.

Trump has imposed sweeping unilateral sanctions that include a ban on all oil sales from Iran.

In one incident that raised further concerns, Britain said that an Iranian oil tanker that had been held for six weeks in Gibraltar had gone ahead to Syria.

Britain said Iran had breached assurances that the ship would not go to Syria, which is under EU sanctions over President Bashar al-Assad's devastating civil war campaign.

US national security advisor John Bolton said that the episode showed that Iran is "working overtime on deception."

Photo: IRNA

Bolton to Press Britain's Johnson on Iran

US National Security Advisor John Bolton was Monday to sound out British Prime Minister Boris Johnson on global disputes that include an escalating Gulf standoff with Iran.

The hawkish White House aide is the most senior US official to meet Johnson since he succeeded Theresa May as UK government leader last month.

A spokesman for Johnson said the two would talk about "a range of security issues, including Iran".

The meeting comes with US President Donald Trump's administration pursuing a "maximum pressure" campaign designed to force the Islamic republic to limit nuclear and military activities.

Washington also wants its close European ally to drop—or at the very least severely restrict—plans to use 5G technology made by China's Huawei when it rolls out the next-generation data network.

US media reports said Washington was not expecting a decision from London on either issue during Bolton's two-day visit.

The Downing Street spokesman said London's position on both Iran and Huawei "remains the same.”

Uncertain Future

Bolton's trip comes with Britain in political crisis and the pound straddling multi-year lows as deadline approaches for the UK to leave the EU after more than 40 years.

Johnson has vowed to meet the twice-delayed Brexit date—now October 31—even if it means leaving without a proper plan to regulate trade and other ties.

Senior UK economic officials and big industries warn that this "no-deal Brexit" option could create border chaos and set off global financial tremors in the short term.

The EU is refusing to re-open negotiations on the deal the bloc's 27 leaders signed last year with May. Johnson and his supporters call the existing agreement unfair.

But a clean break with the EU would allow the UK to immediately launch negotiations on a free trade agreement with the United States.

The US president openly rooted for Johnson during his campaign for May's job following her resignation over the Brexit impasse.

He branded Johnson as Britain's Trump and said the sides were on the verge of making a breakthrough in ties.

Britain and its European allies have irritated Trump's team by trying to save a landmark nuclear agreement with Iran which Washington pulled out of last year.

Britain last week decided to join forces with the US to protect merchant vessels in the Gulf.

It marked a departure in policy for Johnson following May's attempts to form a European-led group.

Britain's decision on Huawei—a private firm that Washington says is obliged to spy for the Chinese government—has been repeatedly delayed due to mixed signals from Trump about his own administration's next steps.

Johnson's spokesman said the UK government was "still assessing the impact" of Trump's decision in May to effectively ban Huawei from trading with US firms.

Photo: Wikicommons

US Renews Waivers for Iran Civil Nuclear Projects

The United States said Wednesday it was extending waivers for three civilian nuclear projects in Iran, despite Washington's withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear agreement.

"This is a short 90 day extension," said White House National Security Advisor John Bolton, a champion of the hawkish policy towards Tehran.

"We are watching those nuclear activities very, very closely, they remain under daily scrutiny," he told Fox Business.

The projects include the Bushehr nuclear power plant, the Arak heavy water reactor, which has been modified under the supervision of the international community to render it impossible to produce plutonium for military use, and the Fordow fuel enrichment plant.

The State Department downplayed the move, as it did when it last granted an extension in May, describing the waivers as "continued restrictions on the Iranian regime's nuclear program".

"The action today will help preserve oversight of Iran's civil nuclear program, reduce proliferation risks, constrain Iran's ability to shorten its 'breakout time' to a nuclear weapon, and prevent the regime from
reconstituting sites for proliferation-sensitive purposes," Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus said in a statement.

In reality, the move extends exemptions for the three Iranian civil nuclear projects, the State Department confirmed to AFP.

There was debate in President Donald Trump's administration about these exemptions, with hawks saying that after Washington's withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018, it would have been logical to stop them in order to further increase the pressure on Tehran.

But the more moderate line has prevailed for the moment, so as not to upset the other signatories to the 2015 deal—China, Russia, Germany, France and Britain—amid escalating tensions between the US and Iran.

The 2015 agreement promised that world powers would assist Iran in developing civilian nuclear energy -- the clerical regime's stated goal for its atomic program.

The waiver announcement came as Washington imposed sanctions Wednesday on Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif.

Photo: President.ir

Trump Ordered Military Strike Against Iran, Then Called It Off

By Tony Capaccio and John Harney

The U.S. called off military strikes against Iran on Thursday night that were approved by President Donald Trump, according to an administration official, abandoning a move that would have dramatically escalated tensions that are already running high between the two countries.

The attack, ordered after Iranian forces shot down a U.S. Navy drone over the Strait of Hormuz, would have involved airstrikes and was close to being carried out when it was stopped, said the official, who was granted anonymity to discuss a national security matter. The official would not discuss whether the plan might be revived.

Airstrikes would raise the specter of a far broader conflict in the volatile region, which supplies one-third of the world’s oil.

It was not immediately known what prompted the decision to hold off. But the move and its reversal underscore the wavering approach the president has shown at times regarding military force. He has repeatedly and fiercely lashed out at Iran and North Korea, but then cooled his rhetoric when hostilities threatened to erupt into open conflict. On two occasions since he took office, he has ordered military strikes on Syria.

Brent oil pared its biggest weekly gain in four months on the shifting developments. Futures erased gains in London on Friday, but are still up 4% for the week.

Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister for Political Affairs Seyed Abbas Araghchi said the country had "indisputable" evidence the U.S. drone had violated Iranian air space, adding some wreckage was recovered from the country’s territorial waters. "The Islamic Republic of Iran would not hesitate for a moment to decisively defend its territory against any aggression," Araghchi said in a statement released by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Friday.

Earlier Thursday, as the attack was being planned, Trump downplayed Iran’s strike on the U.S. Navy drone in the Persian Gulf that escalated regional tensions and fueled a surge in oil prices, suggesting a “loose and stupid” individual may have been responsible for the strike.

“I would imagine it was a general or somebody who made a mistake by shooting that drone down,” Trump said during an Oval Office meeting Thursday with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. “I find it hard to believe it was intentional. It could have been somebody who was loose and stupid.”

The operation was first reported by the New York Times, which said that Trump had pulled back as warplanes were in the air. The U.S. official disputed that part of the Times account.

The White House declined to comment on the reports and an official at the State Department didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

The president is in an increasingly difficult position on Iran. His administration has blamed the Islamic Republic for a series of attacks in the Gulf region since mid-May, including one last week on two oil tankers, but with little consequence for Tehran. He’s shown a desire to project American power, yet during the 2016 election he promised to extricate the U.S. from foreign conflicts, an issue that’s sure to come up as his re-election campaign begins.

The U.S. has directed additional forces to the Middle East in recent weeks, but the numbers—about 2,000 troops in total—have been modest and haven’t come with clear indications of where they would be sent or what their mission would be. In some cases, forces already planned for deployment to the region had their arrival accelerated, while troops scheduled to depart saw their tours extended.

A military assault by the U.S. could have immediate and far-reaching consequences. With proxy forces or allies in countries including Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen, among others, retaliation from Iran could come in many forms, targeting not just U.S. interests but Israel as well and raising the risk of disruptions to oil flows out of the wider Persian Gulf region.

The last time the U.S. launched a significant military effort against Iran was Operation Praying Mantis in 1988. In that operation, U.S. Navy ships sank two Iranian ships and destroyed two Iranian surveillance platforms.

The move came after the USS Samuel B. Roberts was damaged by a mine in the Persian Gulf.

Later that year, a U.S. Navy cruiser shot down an Iranian commercial aircraft on a scheduled flight in Iranian airspace, killing nearly 300 people. The U.S. expressed regret for the loss of life and said it mistakenly targeted the plane. Iran said it was a deliberate and illegal act.

During his time in office, Trump has ratcheted up economic sanctions on Iran as part of his “maximum pressure” campaign against the Islamic Republic. Yet he has also said he doesn’t want a war with Tehran and that he is hoping Iran will reach out to negotiate.

As tensions climbed on Thursday following the drone strike, regional analysts and lawmakers from both parties warned that the likelihood of a bigger confrontation could be looming, whether intentional or not.

“The president may not intend to go to war here but we’re worried that he and the administration may bumble into a war,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, a New York Democrat, told reporters Thursday after a briefing at the White House.

The top Republicans in the Senate and House both called separately for Trump to take a “measured” response to the Iranian actions.

Saudi Vice Minister of Defense Khalid bin Salman said he met with Brian Hook, the U.S. special representative to Iran, to “explore the latest efforts to counter hostile Iranian acts and continuous escalation that threaten the region’s security and stability.” In a series of posts on Twitter, the minister affirmed Saudi Arabia’s support for the U.S. “maximum pressure campaign on Iran.”

The U.S. said the Global Hawk drone was flying in international airspace about 34 kilometers (20 miles) away from Iranian territory when it was shot down.

“This was an unprovoked attack on a U.S. surveillance asset in international airspace,” said Navy Captain Bill Urban, a spokesman for U.S. Central Command.

Photo: Wikicommons

Arab, Muslim Leaders Gather in Mecca for Iran-Focused Summits

By Mohamad Ali Harissi

Arab and Muslim leaders began gathering in the holy city of Mecca on Thursday for three summits, as Saudi Arabia seeks to rally support against arch-rival Iran over attacks on oil installations.

On the eve of the talks, Riyadh blasted what it called Iranian "interference" in the region and demanded "firmness" over attacks on Gulf oil tankers and pipelines.

The call came just hours after US National Security Advisor John Bolton said Iran was almost certainly behind the sabotage of four ships, including two Saudi oil tankers, off the UAE coast.

Iran-aligned Yemeni rebels meanwhile have stepped up drone attacks on the kingdom—one of which resulted in the temporary shutdown of a major oil pipeline.

Saudi Arabia, a staunch US ally, geared up to host leaders from across the Arab and Muslim world for emergency Gulf and Arab summits and a meeting of the heads of state of Islamic nations.

Egypt's President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Kuwait's emir, Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmed Al-Sabah, and Sudan's new military council chief General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan were among the leaders who arrived in the kingdom Thursday, Saudi state media reported.

Riyadh has called the talks to discuss the standoff with Iran and ways to isolate Tehran amid fears of a military confrontation.

"Tehran's support for Huthi rebels in Yemen is proof of Iranian interference in other nations' affairs and this is something that... Islamic countries should reject," Saudi Foreign Minister Ibrahim al-Assaf told a gathering of foreign ministers of the 57-member Organization of Islamic Cooperation in western Jeddah city overnight.

‘Firmness and Determination'

Contrary to expectations, an Iranian delegation headed by Reza Najafi, director general for international peace and security affairs at Iran's foreign ministry, represented the Islamic republic at the meeting.

Assaf said attacks on oil installations must be addressed with "firmness and determination.”

Tensions in the region spiked after the four ships were damaged in a sabotage attack off the coast of the emirate of Fujairah on May 12

The vessels were attacked using "naval mines almost certainly from Iran", Bolton told a news conference in Abu Dhabi on Wednesday.

"There's no doubt in anybody's mind in Washington who's responsible for this," he said in a clear reference to Iran. Iran strongly rejected the accusation.

"Making such laughable claims... is not strange" coming from the US, foreign ministry spokesman Abbas Mousavi said.

US experts are part of a five-nation team that is investigating the ship attacks.

The new war of words between Tehran and Washington follows a US military buildup that includes the deployment of an aircraft carrier, B-52 bombers and 1,500 more troops to the region.

Bolton however said the additional US forces were sent to the Middle East as a "deterrent" and that Washington's response would be prudent.

Regional tensions have grown since US President Donald Trump's administration reimposed sanctions against Iran after Washington unilaterally pulled out of a multilateral 2015 nuclear accord signed with the Islamic Republic. But Trump appeared to soften his hawkish tone towards Tehran, saying during a visit to Japan on Monday that his government does not seek "regime change".

Qatar invited

Saudi Arabia is hosting the three summits in an apparent bid to present a unified front against Tehran.

Qatar will be represented by its Prime Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Nasser al-Thani, the highest ranking official to visit the kingdom since the start of a two-year-old Saudi-led boycott.

Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt have enforced the economic and diplomatic boycott of Qatar since June 2017, including bans on shipping, trade, direct flights, overflight and land crossings.

The alliance accuses Doha of supporting Islamist movements and backing Iran—claims Qatar rejects.

Large banners and flags decorated the streets of Mecca, Islam's holiest city, to welcome the leaders.

The summits coincide with the last few days of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan when Mecca throngs with hundreds of thousands of pilgrims.

The summits are held at midnight as Muslims break their day-long fasting at sunset and then go into several hours of special prayers known as Taraweeh.

Draped in seamless all-white uniforms, worshippers walked under lampposts decorated with flags of participating nations while heading to the Grand Mosque to perform umrah or minor pilgrimage.

The large crowds could pose a logistic headache for the organizers who sealed off six major roads for leaders and advised pilgrims to use alternative streets.

Photo: KSA Press Office

Trump Says He's Not Looking to Topple Iranian Leadership

By Ladane Nasseri and Zainab Fattah

U.S. President Donald Trump said he isn’t pursuing regime change in Iran but aims to keep it from developing nuclear weapons, in an apparent effort to tamp down tensions that have led to fears of war.

Iran “has a chance to be a great country with the same leadership,’’ Trump said at a joint press conference in Tokyo on Monday alongside Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. “We are not looking for regime change. I just want to make that clear.’’

Iranian officials have said that the raft of U.S. sanctions against their country, which was tightened last month, is aimed at fueling popular dissent in an effort to topple the leadership.

“I’m not looking to hurt Iran at all. I’m looking to have Iran say no nuclear weapons,” Trump said. “No nuclear weapons for Iran and I think we will make a deal.’’

Trump’s remarks come amid fears that rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran could lead to miscalculations that would precipitate an armed conflict engulfing the Middle East. Frictions escalated this month after the U.S. said Tehran was planning an offensive against American interests in the region, then made a show of military force in the Gulf.

Iran has responded to the American moves by threatening to abandon aspects of the 2015 multipower nuclear deal that remains in force despite Trump’s withdrawal a year ago.

“The crux of the message by President Trump is that he doesn’t really want war with Iran, what he is trying to do is de-escalate the calls for war, ” said Fawaz A. Gerges, professor of Middle Eastern politics at the London School of Economics. His message “to the Islamic Republic is that his latest moves are all about deterrence and not war.’’

The Trump administration has made confronting Iran the cornerstone of its Middle East policy, and last year it exited the 2015 international accord that reined in Iran’s nuclear ambitions in exchange for sanctions relief. Trump has said he wants Iran back to the negotiating table for a grand deal that would curb its regional influence and ballistic missile program. His rhetoric this month has ranged from offers for Iran to "call me" to threats to "end" the nation if it seeks to picks a fight.

Trump’s conciliatory comments about the Iranian regime probably won’t comfort Gulf allies that view Iran’s leadership with deep suspicion over its regional activities, said Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, a political analyst in the United Arab Emirates. These include Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E.

“But Trump changes his mind within 24 hours,’’ Abdulla said. “Today, he can say this about Iran but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him going to war with Iran tomorrow.’’

Photo: Bloomberg

U.S. Sends 1,500 Troops to Mideast After Blaming Attacks on Iran

By Tony Capaccio and Margaret Talev

President Donald Trump ordered more troops to the Middle East as the Pentagon blamed Tehran for recent attacks in the region, yet the small scale of the U.S. move signaled a desire to avoid a further escalation of tensions between the two nations.

The U.S. will bolster forces in the region by about 1,500 troops, though Trump and the Pentagon said that the deployment is for defensive purposes with a focus on missile defense, surveillance and keeping open shipping lanes in the Persian Gulf. About 600 of the troops are already in the region, meaning fewer than 1,000 new service members will deploy.

“We’re going to be sending a relatively small number of troops to the Middle East,” Trump said as he departed the White House on Friday for Japan. The troops will serve “mostly in a protective capacity,” Trump said, adding, “We’ll see what happens.”

After tensions between Iran and Washington spiked earlier this month, Trump’s comments and the size of the deployment suggest the administration wants to avoid fueling fears of another Middle East war. At the same time, Pentagon officials said they believe Iran is behind a spate of recent attacks on oil tankers, a Saudi oil pipeline and the “Green Zone” diplomatic compound in Baghdad.

“We believe with a high degree of confidence that this stems back to the leadership of Iran at the highest levels,” U.S. Navy Vice Admiral Michael Gilday, director of the Defense Department’s Joint Staff, told reporters at the Pentagon on Friday. All of the attacks “have been attributed to Iran, through their proxies” or other forces, Gilday said. It was the first time the U.S. publicly charged Iran with being behind the attacks, though Iranian-backed rebels in Yemen had claimed responsibility for the pipeline attack.

The moves come after the Trump administration said it had evidence Iran was threatening other attacks on American interests or allies in the region. The administration earlier this month expedited the deployment of a carrier battle group to the Middle East along with a Patriot missile battery and additional bombers.

It wasn’t immediately clear where in the region the new troops would be sent, though the U.S. has military bases in places including Qatar, Bahrain and Iraq. The deployment also includes a new fighter squadron and spy planes, Gilday said.

Deterrence Effect

“All those troops, all of those weapons have been going to Iran the last three weeks not to take military action against Iran, but to deter Iran from taking military action against us,” Republican Senator Tom Cotton said in an interview on Bloomberg Television.

While people familiar with the troop decision called the deployment “initial,” it falls far short of Trump’s statement that in the event of hostilities with Iran he would be willing to send many times more than 120,000 troops suggested in a New York Times report last week. The president has also repeatedly signaled in recent weeks that he is open to talks with Iran’s leadership, though he’s suggested officials in Tehran need to reach out to him first.

On Thursday, Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan said the Pentagon was focused on having “the right force protection” in the region.

“Our job is deterrence. This is not about war,” Shanahan told reporters. “We have a mission there in the Middle East: freedom of navigation, you know, counterterrorism in Syria and Iraq, you know, defeating al-Qaeda in Yemen, and then the security of Israel and Jordan.”

Separately, the Trump administration decided to bypass Congress and approve the sale of more than $2 billion in weapons to Iran’s regional rival Saudi Arabia, invoking a rarely used provision in the Arms Export Control Act despite bipartisan objections by lawmakers.

In a letter explaining the decision to allow sales to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Jordan, Secretary of State Michael Pompeo said Iran’s “malign activities” in the region necessitated the decision to sidestep congressional approval. He said he weapons sales “must occur as quickly as possible in order to deter further Iranian adventurism in the Gulf and throughout the Middle East.”

More broadly, the rising tensions are linked to Trump’s decision to ratchet up pressure by ordering punishing new economic sanctions on Iran after withdrawing America last year from the multinational nuclear deal reached with Tehran in 2015. The agreement, which sought to ease sanctions on the Islamic Republic in exchange for an end to Iran’s nuclear program, is still backed by European allies as well as China and Russia.

In a sign of frustration over the effectiveness of the U.S. sanctions, Iran is now threatening to resume enriching uranium beyond levels permitted in the 2015 accord in its effort to push France, Germany, the U.K. and the European Union to find ways to relieve the effects of U.S. sanctions.

‘Who’s Provoking Who?’

As both sides sought to react in recent weeks, questions have been raised about the escalating threats. Senator Angus King, a member of the Senate Intelligence and Armed Services Committee, asked on CNN this month, “Who’s provoking who?”

“Are they reacting because they are concerned about what we’re doing, or are we reacting because we’re concerned what they’re doing?” asked King, an independent who caucuses with Democrats. “And that raises my second concern, which is miscalculation.”

Senator Jack Reed, the top Democrat on the Armed Services Committee, warned on Thursday that there is “significant” potential for an overreaction by Iranian personnel or militia in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan to the U.S.’s new military deployments.

Risk of Miscalculation

“The dangers are extreme in terms of miscalculation,” Reed said in an interview.

The Rhode Island senator declined to discuss the Pentagon threat briefing he’s received on the Iran situation but said he was “absolutely” concerned about miscalculation by Iran in reacting to the U.S. moves.

Asked about the Trump administration’s decision earlier this month to accelerate the deployment of the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier battle group and other military hardware to the region, Reed said “if it’s a deterrence I think that’s appropriate because we don’t want to see an outbreak of conflict there.”

“We did not want to signal to the Iranians, erroneously, that we were not prepared,” he said.

Photo: Bloomberg

U.S. Pulls Iraq Embassy Staff as Tensions Climb Higher Over Iran

By Ladane Nasseri and Zainab Fattah

The U.S. ordered its non-emergency government staff to leave Iraq amid increasing Middle East tensions that American officials are blaming on Iran, as fears rise that the region may be heading toward another conflict.

Most employees at the U.S. embassy in Baghdad and the consulate in Erbil, in the majority Kurdish region, will leave due to an “increased threat stream,” according to an embassy statement Wednesday that didn’t give more details. The move comes after the Pentagon accelerated a carrier battle group’s transit to the region and deployed a Patriot anti-missile battery to bolster forces.

U.S. officials on Wednesday reiterated that the Trump administration isn’t seeking a war, but said it will seek to hold Iran “accountable” for its actions and those of its proxies. The officials, who asked not to be identified, said the decision to withdraw embassy staff was based on considerations of safety and not meant as political signaling.

Denying reports of “infighting” in his administration over Iran policy, President Donald Trump said in a tweet Wednesday that “I’m sure that Iran will want to talk soon.”

Yet critics of the Trump administration warned the U.S. isn’t sharing enough clear evidence of Iranian threats and say that without better intelligence, the latest buildup is reminiscent of the lead-in to the Iraq war in late 2002, which was based on faulty intelligence. Iranian officials have said that National Security Advisor John Bolton and other administration hawks are hyping the threat of war.

Separately, Saudi Arabia restarted its main cross-country oil pipeline after a drone attack by Iran-backed rebels based in neighboring Yemen. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates—both Iranian rivals—reported attacks on Monday on several vessels including Saudi oil tankers.

While it’s not yet clear who was behind the shipping attacks, the combination of events has raised the risk of conflict in a region that exports more than 16 million barrels of oil a day -- enough to supply all of Europe’s demand and more.

The U.A.E.’s minister of state for foreign affairs, Anwar Gargash, said the country is still investigating the attacks on the ships and said he’s “not going to jump the gun” on blaming any nation until the probe is completed. Addressing tensions in the region, Gargash said “we are very committed to deescalation.”

‘Suffer Greatly’

Trump has long said he wants to pull the U.S. out of Middle East conflicts, but this week he also warned that the Islamic Republic would “suffer greatly” if it provokes America.

Trump on Tuesday rejected a report that the Pentagon is updating scenarios for war with Iran, but then warned he’d send “a hell of a lot more” than 120,000 troops to the Middle East in the event of hostilities. Lawmakers on Capitol Hill are demanding briefings on the latest intelligence on Iran, with Secretary of State Michael Pompeo expected to meet with House members next week, according to an official.

Jack Reed, the top Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee, said a classified briefing is needed “as soon as possible.”

While the administration didn’t elaborate, it blamed Iran-backed Shiite militias after pulling staff from the consulate in Basra in southern Iraq in September and Pompeo used an unannounced May 7 visit to the country to denounce what he called an “escalating” threat from Tehran.

Yet unlike in other hot spots such as Venezuela and North Korea, where the U.S. managed to forge an international coalition to advance its goals, Trump is diplomatically isolated on Iran after unilaterally quitting the 2015 nuclear deal a year ago, a move that alienated allies including the U.K. and Germany.

Amid the tensions, oil prices rebounded on Wednesday as a government report showed shrinking supplies of U.S. gasoline, suggesting more demand ahead for crude suppliers.

The series of events has increased concerns of a military confrontation, whether deliberate or otherwise.

Pompeo canceled a trip to Germany last week in order to make the unannounced visit to Iraq’s capital, where he spoke with leaders about an “escalating” threat from Iran and possible “big energy deals” to help wean the Iraqi economy away from its neighbor. This week, Pompeo made scant progress in persuading EU counterparts to take a harder line toward Iran in an last-minute trip to Brussels to share what the U.S. says is fresh intelligence on the threat posed by Tehran.

“I made clear once again that we are worried in view of the developments and the tensions in the region,” German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said after the meetings. “We don’t want a military escalation.” German officials on Wednesday said the country wasn’t aware of a “concrete threat” or change to the security situation in Iraq.

A spokesman for the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad said the departures announced Wednesday did not amount to an evacuation, but to an ordered exit of non-essential personnel. He declined to say how many employees would remain. The last such drawdown took place in 2014, when Islamic State swept through the north of the country toward the capital. It lasted several months.

Shiite Muslim Iran has played a prominent role in Iraq since the U.S.-led invasion of 2003 put Iraq’s majority Shiite community in power. Tehran supports several powerful Shiite militias in Iraq, including some that played a significant role in the successful fight against Islamic State.

Trump says Iran’s missile program and support for militant groups is destabilizing the Mideast region and he has made countering the Islamic Republic a primary focus of his foreign policy, encouraged by Iranian foes led by Saudi Arabia, the U.A.E. and Israel.

In recent weeks, the U.S. ratcheted up the pressure on ruling clerics by scrapping waivers that had allowed some countries to carry on importing Iranian crude, and designating the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Iran’s elite military unit, as a terrorist organization.

Iranian officials have warned of what they said is a disinformation campaign. Last month, Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said that the targeting of his nation could take a dangerous turn and trigger a wider crisis. He suggested hard-liners in Washington and Saudi Arabia may be “plotting an ‘accident’ anywhere in the region.”

The U.S. assessment of an increased Iranian threat was disowned on Tuesday by the British deputy commander of the international campaign to defeat Islamic State, Major General Christopher Ghika. “There’s been no increased threat from Iranian-backed forces in Iraq and Syria,” he said in a briefing for Pentagon reporters.

In an unusual airing of differences, U.S. Central Command then issued a statement rejecting Ghika’s comments as “running counter to the identified credible threats available to intelligence.”

Gargash, the U.A.E. minister of state, said that the current situation in the region means “we need to emphasize caution and we need to emphasize good judgment. It’s a very brittle, difficult situation.”

Photo: JCS

Trump Says Iran Will `Suffer Greatly' If U.S. Is Provoked

By Margaret Talev in Washington D.C.

President Donald Trump warned Iran against a military provocation and said the country “will suffer greatly” if hostilities break out with the U.S.

“We’ll see what happens with Iran. If they do anything it’ll be a very bad mistake, if they do anything,” Trump told reporters on Monday during a meeting with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban at the White House.

“I’m hearing little stories about Iran,” Trump added. “If they do anything they will suffer greatly.”

Saudi Arabia claimed that two of its oil tankers were attacked on Sunday while sailing toward the Persian Gulf. The U.A.E. foreign ministry on Sunday reported that four commercial ships were attacked by an unknown adversary.

The precise nature of the incident remained unclear. Saudi Arabia’s state run Saudi Press Agency described it as “a sabotage attack.”

Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman Abbas Mousavi described the maritime incident as “concerning and regrettable” and called for efforts to shed light on what exactly happened, the semi-official Tasnim News reported. He warned against “foreign seditious plots to upset the region’s security and stability.”

Tensions are rising between the U.S. and Iran after the Trump administration earlier this month ended exceptions to U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil sales. The Islamic Republic has threatened to block oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and has said it may increase uranium enrichment beyond limits allowed under the 2015 nuclear deal that Trump abandoned.

U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton said last week that an aircraft carrier and bombers would be deployed to the region to counter unspecific Iranian threats.

Asked what Iran should be worried the U.S. might do, the president said: “You can figure it out yourself. They know what I mean.”

Photo: White House

US Sending B-52s to Middle East Against Iran 'Threat'

The US Air Force is deploying massive B-52 Stratofortress bombers to the Gulf in response to an alleged possible plan by Iran to attack American forces in the region, the Pentagon said Tuesday.

Several nuclear-capable B-52s are heading to the region along with an aircraft carrier task force following what the Defense Department called "recent and clear indications that Iranian and Iranian proxy forces were making preparations to possibly attack US forces."

"The deployment of the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group and a bomber task force are considered a prudent step in response to indications of heightened Iranian readiness to conduct offensive operations against US forces and our interests," said acting Pentagon spokesman Charles Summers in a statement.

 "We emphasize the White House statement that we do not seek war with the Iranian regime, but we will defend US personnel, our allies and our interests in the region."

The deployment was first announced late Sunday by John Bolton, President Donald Trump's national security advisor, who said the move was "a clear and unmistakable message to the Iranian regime that any attack on United States interests or on those of our allies will be met with unrelenting force."

The US move comes in response to intelligence about a threat orchestrated by Iran, officials said, but details of the threat have not been disclosed.

Navy Captain Bill Urban, the spokesman for the US military's Central Command, which spans the Middle east, said the threat could be land-based or maritime.

He said the Lincoln strike group was already scheduled to head to the region on long-planned deployment but that its arrival in the Gulf has been accelerated due to the threat.

That led to the cancellation of a planned port visit by the Lincoln to Split, Croatia.

The multinational carrier group, including several ships, multiple types of aircraft, and 6,000 personnel, will be deployed "where it will best be able to protect US forces and interests in the region and to deter any aggression."

The deployment comes a year after Trump pulled the United States out of a multinational accord under which Tehran drastically scaled back its sensitive nuclear work.

Since then, the Trump administration has ramped up menacing rhetoric against Iran while tightening economic sanctions on the country.

Photo: Wikicommons

Risks Rise as US Warns Iran with Aircraft Carrier

Fears of conflict rose Monday as the United States vowed to send a message to Iran by deploying an aircraft carrier strike group, amid a report that Tehran would scale back commitments under a nuclear deal after mounting pressure by President Donald Trump.

Patrick Shanahan, the acting US defense secretary, said he approved the deployment of the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group to unspecified waters in the vicinity of Iran in response to "indications of a credible threat by Iranian regime forces."

"We call on the Iranian regime to cease all provocation. We will hold the Iranian regime accountable for any attack on US forces or our interests," Shanahan tweeted.

The announcement came first on Sunday evening from John Bolton, Trump's national security advisor, who said the move was "a clear and unmistakable message to the Iranian regime that any attack on United States interests or on those of our allies will be met with unrelenting force."

"The United States is not seeking war with the Iranian regime, but we are fully prepared to respond to any attack, whether by proxy, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or regular Iranian forces," Bolton said.

US officials did not give more details on the alleged threat, and the Pentagon had already announced in April that the USS Abraham Lincoln had headed on a "regularly scheduled deployment" out of its base in Norfolk, Virginia.

Iran's supreme national security council spokesman Keyvan Khosravi dismissed Bolton's statement, calling it a "clumsy use of an out-of-date event for psychological warfare."

Based on intelligence, or politics?

The news site Axios said Bolton's warning came after Israel, which has pushed to isolate Iran, passed along intelligence on a possible plot by Tehran "against a US target in the Gulf or US allies like Saudi Arabia or the UAE."

Quoting an unnamed Israeli official, Axios said the intelligence was "not very specific at this stage" but that the "Iranian temperature is on the rise" due to pressure.

Mark Dubowitz, chief executive of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, which advocates a hard line on Iran, said he had heard of a "spike" in intelligence in recent days about planned attacks. 

He believed Iran had given the green-light to Islamist movements Hamas and Islamic Jihad to fire missiles into Israel in a weekend flare-up to "create a crisis to distract the US and Israel" from plots elsewhere.

Other observers were much more skeptical of the intentions of Bolton, who has advocated attacking Iran and enjoyed close ties to the country's formerly armed opposition before Trump hired him.

“The Trump administration's team of saber-rattling foreign policy advisors are all but openly shouting their desire for an unauthorized and unconstitutional war with Iran," said Senator Tom Udall, a Democrat.

"Congress must act immediately to stop this reckless march to war before it's too late," he tweeted.

The deployment announcement came almost a year to the day after Trump pulled the United States out of a multinational accord under which Tehran drastically scaled back its sensitive nuclear work.

"I think this is manufactured by Bolton to try to justify the administration's very harsh policy toward Iran despite the fact that Iran has been complying with the nuclear deal," said Barbara Slavin, the director of the Future of Iran Initiative at the Atlantic Council think tank.

Iran Frustration Mounting

With frustration mounting in Iran over the lack of dividends from the nuclear accord, the semi-official ISNA news agency said that President Hassan Rouhani would announce "retaliatory measures" on Wednesday to mark the anniversary of the US pullout.

The news agency said that Rouhani would invoke sections of the accord under which Iran can cease some or all of its commitments if other parties fail to adhere to their part, notably on ending sanctions.

The Trump administration instead has imposed sweeping sanctions on Tehran and in recent weeks has hit even harder, moving to ban all countries from buying Iran's oil, its top export, and declaring the Revolutionary Guards to be a terrorist group—the first such designation of a unit of a foreign government.

UN inspectors say that Iran has remained in compliance with the nuclear deal, which is still backed by European powers as well as Democrats seeking to unseat Trump next year.

Britain, France and Germany have set up a special payments system to let European businesses operate in Iran and avoid US sanctions, although few firms have been willing to incur Washington's wrath.

Photo: Bloomberg

Fresh U.S. Divide on Iran Emerges Over Expiring Nuclear Waivers

A fresh divide is emerging between some Trump administration officials and hard-line opponents of Iran in the Senate over how far to go in the White House’s “maximum pressure” campaign against the Islamic Republic.

In a letter to President Donald Trump this week, a group of Republican senators demanded that Secretary of State Michael Pompeo stop letting Iran continue its limited civilian nuclear research program.

At issue are three waivers the Trump administration granted after it withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal last year. They allow Iran to work with nations that remain in the deal at three sites—Fordow, Bushehr and Arak—to ensure it doesn’t seek to enrich uranium to high levels. It’s part of an effort to limit the risk of nuclear weapons proliferation.

In their April 9 letter to Trump, six Republican senators including Ted Cruz of Texas, Tom Cotton of Arkansas and Marco Rubio of Florida argued that the administration shouldn’t extend the waivers when they expire in early May.

“There is extensive evidence Iran channeled its nuclear weapons program through civil nuclear projects after 2003,” the senators wrote in the letter seen by Bloomberg News. They urged the president to “finally end all U.S. implementation” of the 2015 deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

Bolton Versus Pompeo

The nuclear exceptions are up for renewal even as the administration must weigh extending waivers that allow a select group of governments to keep buying Iranian oil without facing sanctions.

Some within the administration, including National Security Advisor John Bolton, have argued those waivers also should be revoked. On the other side is Pompeo -- normally seen as among the toughest Trump aides on Iran -- whose State Department advisers have argued that the exceptions fit broader U.S. interests including keeping oil markets stable.

The fight over both sets of waivers has exposed a rare division between hard-line and harder-line opponents of Tehran. This week the Trump administration designated the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, an elite branch of Iran’s military, as a foreign terrorist organization.

But that move didn’t quell growing irritation among some of Trump’s allies that the president has continued to let Iran get limited benefits from the Obama-era nuclear agreement.

With the 2020 U.S. presidential election approaching, advocates of an even tougher approach are pushing for a complete collapse of the deal that allies including the U.K., Germany and France have struggled to keep alive.

Cruz pressed Pompeo on the issue at a hearing of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Wednesday, telling him that extending the waivers “could further Iran acquiring nuclear weapons.”

“‘Maximum pressure’ should be ‘maximum pressure,”’ Cruz said.

Pompeo demurred, saying the decision hadn’t been made yet. He left open the possibility that the waivers could be extended.

“I’d love to talk to you in a classified setting about it—it’s complicated,” Pompeo said. On Cruz’s contention that t people in the State Department continue to resist Trump’s desire to kill the nuclear deal, Pompeo said, “We’ve got 90,000 employees, probably that many opinions.”

‘End All’

Two people familiar with the administration’s thinking, who asked not to be identified discussing private deliberations, said they expect the nuclear waivers to be renewed. One of the people said Republican senators are still weighing how hard to fight Trump and Pompeo on the matter, including whether to hold up administration nominees unless the waivers are scrapped.

A spokesman for Cruz wouldn’t rule out the possibility.

“The Trump administration should end all implementation of the deal, including the nuclear and oil waivers the State Department has been issuing, and Senator Cruz will use all options available to him to push the administration to do so,” Billy Gribbin said.

Views on extending the nuclear waivers vary among experts on Iran’s nuclear program. David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security, argues that the waiver governing the Bushehr nuclear complex on the Persian Gulf should be extended because it allows Iran to buy uranium to power its reactor rather than enriching it on its own.

Weapons-Grade Uranium

But Albright says the Fordow waiver is more complicated because of information that came out after Israel exposed Iran’s nuclear archive last year. That data showed Iran had built Fordow, near the holy city of Qom, solely to make weapons-grade uranium, he said.

“The U.S. position should be that Fordow be shut down,” Albright said in an interview. “It was part of nuclear weapons program and it’s being preserved for a nuclear weapons program.”

Former Obama administration officials who helped craft the Iran deal said revoking the nuclear waivers would do the opposite of what the administration seeks by only adding to risk that Iran could build a nuclear weapon.

“It’s insane from a nonproliferation perspective,” said Jarrett Blanc, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a former State Department coordinator for Iran nuclear implementation. “Deciding to throw that away because you need the next drumbeat of antagonism toward Iran is nuts.”

Photo Credit: Bloomberg

Trump Team Split Over Iran Oil Waivers as Next Deadline Nears

President Donald Trump’s national security team is deeply divided over whether to let a small group of countries keep buying Iranian oil after a U.S. deadline on sanctions waivers expires in May. Now that fight is getting ugly.

The division—primarily between John Bolton’s National Security Council and Michael Pompeo’s State Department—has led to rising frustration and flared tempers. It’s exposing fault lines over how the president’s most senior advisers approach the Iran issue, according to four people familiar with the debate who asked not to be identified discussing the internal deliberations.

Above the fray, at least for now, is a president who must weigh competing priorities. While Trump wants to make good on his “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran and strong-arm it into meeting U.S. demands—including ending its ballistic missile tests and support for Hezbollah—there’s also concern that squeezing Tehran too much will lead to a spike in oil prices. That could raise gasoline costs for U.S. drivers as the 2020 election approaches.

Favoring a tougher tack, Bolton and his team point out that oil prices remain low—about USD 59 a barrel as of Monday. But that could change quickly depending on production moves by OPEC nations as well as the administration’s separate efforts to choke off Venezuelan oil sales in a bid to push President Nicolas Maduro from office.

“The administration will really be weighing its desire to put the screws further on Iran against its allergy to oil over USD 70 a barrel,” said Meghan O’Sullivan, a former deputy national security adviser now at the Harvard Kennedy School. “It is risky for the administration to think that it can drive a hard policy which contracts the oil supply from both Iran and Venezuela simultaneously.”

A spokesman for the White House National Security Council said agencies are coordinating closely to apply maximum pressure on Iran. A State Department official said the U.S. goal remains to get to zero Iranian oil exports as quickly as possible, adding that the secretary of state alone has the discretion to grant exemptions.

There’s little doubt the U.S. sanctions have pinched Iran: Oil revenue has tumbled, the rial has been battered and shortages of meat, medicine and gasoline are spreading. Iran’s supreme leader this week even called European efforts to sustain trade with Iran outside of U.S. sanctions “a joke.”

Price Spike

Trump has until the first week of May to decide whether to issue new waivers to eight governments—China, India, Japan, Turkey, Italy, Greece, South Korea and Taiwan—that were allowed in November to keep buying Iranian oil without facing penalties. The current speculation is that the biggest buyers of Iranian crude, including China and India, will get waivers again.

But Bolton and officials in the Energy Department argue that it’s time for the administration to make good on its demands to push Iran’s oil exports to zero. Pompeo’s team, led by Iran special representative Brian Hook, caution that a sudden removal of Iranian crude from the market—about 1.1 million barrels a day—would fuel volatility and lead to a price spike.

A key analyst who has advised the White House on its approach said the intensifying squabble underscores just how much more politicized the debate over the waivers has become as the U.S. presidential election in 2020 grows nearer.

“If you think Trump will be a two-term president, you have about six years and you can afford to go more slowly,” said Mark Dubowitz, chief executive officer of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “But if you think there’s a risk that he’s a one-term president, then he’s got 21 months left and you want to throw everything you can at the regime.”

Pompeo, a hard-line conservative on most issues, and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin find themselves increasingly isolated from Bolton and their usual allies on Capitol Hill, including Republican Senators Marco Rubio and Tom Cotton, who have argued for the U.S. not to grant any more waivers.

“The Iranian regime uses its petrodollars to fund terrorism and sow chaos throughout the region,” Cotton tweeted on March 18. “Going forward, the proper amount of oil exports from Iran is zero.”

According to two GOP aides familiar with the thinking of Senator James Risch, the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, the Idaho Republican believes any new waiver will need “substantial justification” to be granted. Risch also thinks there’s more than enough oil sloshing around global markets to counter the crude removed from Iran, thanks to Saudi Arabia and the U.S., according to the people.

As the debate plays out, Pompeo is also facing pressure from his own ambassadors. According to one of the people, Kay Bailey Hutchison, the U.S. ambassador to NATO, is among several who especially oppose giving Turkey another waiver. They argue that would send the wrong message when the U.S. is pushing NATO allies to cut ties with Tehran.

The debate has moved along enough that Hook and his allies have lost several key supporters who were previously open to the waivers but now believe issuing them sends the wrong signal.

“I’m sympathetic to where Brian Hook and Secretary Pompeo are in striking a balance between zero Iranian oil and global oil prices,” Dubowitz said. “But today’s oil market supports zero. So either you’re running a maximum pressure campaign against Iran or you’re not.”

Photo Credit: Bloomberg

Europe Not to be Trusted: Iran Leader

Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Friday that Europe "cannot be trusted", a week after the EU launched a trade mechanism to bypass US sanctions on Tehran.

“These days there's talk of the Europeans and their proposals. My advice is that they shouldn't be trusted, just like the Americans," he said at a meeting with air force officials, his website reported.

"I'm not saying we shouldn't have relations with them. This is about trust," he added.

Britain, France and Germany last week launched a special payment mechanism called INSTEX to help save the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers.

It would allow Tehran to keep trading with EU companies in spite of US sanctions renewed after Washington quit the accord last year.

Tehran has cautiously welcomed INSTEX as a "first step", but US officials said the new entity would not have any impact on efforts to exert economic pressure on Iran.

Khamenei also accused Europe of hypocrisy over human rights, criticizing France's treatment of protesters in Paris.

"They (anti-riot police) attack protesters in Paris streets and blind them, then they have the audacity to make human rights requests of us," he said.

Turning to the United States, Khamenei said Iranians would chant "death to America" as long as Washington kept up its hostile policies, but the slogan was not directed at the American people.

"Death to America means death to (President Donald) Trump, (National Security Advisor) John Bolton and (Secretary of State Mike) Pompeo. It means death to America's rulers... we have nothing against the American people," he said.

Photo Credit: IRNA

Albania Expels Iranian Diplomats for 'Harming Security'

Albania has expelled two Iranian diplomats, including the ambassador according to a US official, who are suspected of "involvement in activities that harm the country's security," the Balkan state said Wednesday.

"The decision to declare them 'persona non grata' was taken after consultations with countries allied to Albania," Foreign Ministry's spokeswoman Edlira Prendi told reporters. 

She declined to provide the diplomats' names or elaborate on the nature of their alleged offence.

But in welcoming the news on Twitter, US National Security Adviser John Bolton identified one of the diplomats as the ambassador.

"Prime Minister Edi Rama of Albania just expelled the Iranian ambassador, signaling to Iran's leaders that their support for terrorism will not be tolerated," Bolton wrote.

He added: "We stand with PM Rama and the Albanian people as they stand up to Iran's reckless behavior in Europe and across the globe."

An Albanian TV station, Top Channel, reported that the Iranians were suspected of links to an alleged plot to attack a 2016 World Cup match between Albania and Israel.

After the match some 20 people were arrested in Albania and Kosovo in connection with the alleged plot.

At the request of US authorities and the UN in 2013, Albania agreed to take in some 3,000 members of Iranian opposition group known as The People's Mujahedin Organisation of Iran (PMOI).

Their relocation from a camp in Iraq was completed in 2016 when the last 280 people left for Albania. They currently live in a compound in the northwest of the country.

Photo Credit: IRNA