Trump Ordered Military Strike Against Iran, Then Called It Off

By Tony Capaccio and John Harney

The U.S. called off military strikes against Iran on Thursday night that were approved by President Donald Trump, according to an administration official, abandoning a move that would have dramatically escalated tensions that are already running high between the two countries.

The attack, ordered after Iranian forces shot down a U.S. Navy drone over the Strait of Hormuz, would have involved airstrikes and was close to being carried out when it was stopped, said the official, who was granted anonymity to discuss a national security matter. The official would not discuss whether the plan might be revived.

Airstrikes would raise the specter of a far broader conflict in the volatile region, which supplies one-third of the world’s oil.

It was not immediately known what prompted the decision to hold off. But the move and its reversal underscore the wavering approach the president has shown at times regarding military force. He has repeatedly and fiercely lashed out at Iran and North Korea, but then cooled his rhetoric when hostilities threatened to erupt into open conflict. On two occasions since he took office, he has ordered military strikes on Syria.

Brent oil pared its biggest weekly gain in four months on the shifting developments. Futures erased gains in London on Friday, but are still up 4% for the week.

Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister for Political Affairs Seyed Abbas Araghchi said the country had "indisputable" evidence the U.S. drone had violated Iranian air space, adding some wreckage was recovered from the country’s territorial waters. "The Islamic Republic of Iran would not hesitate for a moment to decisively defend its territory against any aggression," Araghchi said in a statement released by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Friday.

Earlier Thursday, as the attack was being planned, Trump downplayed Iran’s strike on the U.S. Navy drone in the Persian Gulf that escalated regional tensions and fueled a surge in oil prices, suggesting a “loose and stupid” individual may have been responsible for the strike.

“I would imagine it was a general or somebody who made a mistake by shooting that drone down,” Trump said during an Oval Office meeting Thursday with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. “I find it hard to believe it was intentional. It could have been somebody who was loose and stupid.”

The operation was first reported by the New York Times, which said that Trump had pulled back as warplanes were in the air. The U.S. official disputed that part of the Times account.

The White House declined to comment on the reports and an official at the State Department didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

The president is in an increasingly difficult position on Iran. His administration has blamed the Islamic Republic for a series of attacks in the Gulf region since mid-May, including one last week on two oil tankers, but with little consequence for Tehran. He’s shown a desire to project American power, yet during the 2016 election he promised to extricate the U.S. from foreign conflicts, an issue that’s sure to come up as his re-election campaign begins.

The U.S. has directed additional forces to the Middle East in recent weeks, but the numbers—about 2,000 troops in total—have been modest and haven’t come with clear indications of where they would be sent or what their mission would be. In some cases, forces already planned for deployment to the region had their arrival accelerated, while troops scheduled to depart saw their tours extended.

A military assault by the U.S. could have immediate and far-reaching consequences. With proxy forces or allies in countries including Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen, among others, retaliation from Iran could come in many forms, targeting not just U.S. interests but Israel as well and raising the risk of disruptions to oil flows out of the wider Persian Gulf region.

The last time the U.S. launched a significant military effort against Iran was Operation Praying Mantis in 1988. In that operation, U.S. Navy ships sank two Iranian ships and destroyed two Iranian surveillance platforms.

The move came after the USS Samuel B. Roberts was damaged by a mine in the Persian Gulf.

Later that year, a U.S. Navy cruiser shot down an Iranian commercial aircraft on a scheduled flight in Iranian airspace, killing nearly 300 people. The U.S. expressed regret for the loss of life and said it mistakenly targeted the plane. Iran said it was a deliberate and illegal act.

During his time in office, Trump has ratcheted up economic sanctions on Iran as part of his “maximum pressure” campaign against the Islamic Republic. Yet he has also said he doesn’t want a war with Tehran and that he is hoping Iran will reach out to negotiate.

As tensions climbed on Thursday following the drone strike, regional analysts and lawmakers from both parties warned that the likelihood of a bigger confrontation could be looming, whether intentional or not.

“The president may not intend to go to war here but we’re worried that he and the administration may bumble into a war,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, a New York Democrat, told reporters Thursday after a briefing at the White House.

The top Republicans in the Senate and House both called separately for Trump to take a “measured” response to the Iranian actions.

Saudi Vice Minister of Defense Khalid bin Salman said he met with Brian Hook, the U.S. special representative to Iran, to “explore the latest efforts to counter hostile Iranian acts and continuous escalation that threaten the region’s security and stability.” In a series of posts on Twitter, the minister affirmed Saudi Arabia’s support for the U.S. “maximum pressure campaign on Iran.”

The U.S. said the Global Hawk drone was flying in international airspace about 34 kilometers (20 miles) away from Iranian territory when it was shot down.

“This was an unprovoked attack on a U.S. surveillance asset in international airspace,” said Navy Captain Bill Urban, a spokesman for U.S. Central Command.

Photo: Wikicommons

Congress Demands Iran Briefing From White House as Tensions Rise

By Steven T. Dennis and Billy House

Members of Congress are seeking answers from the Trump administration on U.S. plans to respond to escalating tensions with Iran, demanding more information about fast-moving developments in the Middle East.

U.S. officials will meet Thursday with congressional leaders from both parties in both chambers, including heads of both intelligence committees, to discuss the Middle East, according to a person familiar with the plans. There will be a larger briefing for all U.S. House members next week, which will include Secretary of State Michael Pompeo, according to another person.

Bob Menendez, the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, rejected this timeline for information and warned that uninformed decisions could lead to conflict like the U.S.’s military involvement in Iraq in the last decade, which was justified with faulty intelligence.

“Things are happening at warp speed here,” Menendez said. “We don’t need another Iraq weapons of mass destruction moment, that we’re led into things on false information, unverifiable, untested. So I am alarmed that we cannot even get the basic briefings in a timely manner.”

Policymakers’ scramble for information comes as the U.S. ordered its non-emergency government staff to leave Iraq, citing an “increased threat stream” in the region. Trump administration officials this week are warning of rising threats to Americans from forces backed by neighboring Iran and are deploying warships and B-52 bombers to the Gulf.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said there is an “alarming lack of clarity” about the strategy in Iran.

“Any potential increase in our military presence in the Middle East should require consultation with Congress and anything beyond that would require this body to act,” Schumer said Wednesday on the Senate Floor. “President Trump, what is your strategy? Where are you headed and why aren’t you talking to Congress about it?”

Senators leaving a Wednesday meeting with senior U.S. intelligence officials—previously scheduled to discuss next year’s defense funding—expressed concern about misinformation that could lead to miscalculation. CIA Director Gina Haspel had been expected to be at the briefing but had to go to the White House instead, said GOP Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska.

Senator Jack Reed, the top Democrat on the Armed Services Committee, called for a classified briefing for the full Senate on Iran “as soon as possible.”

“We have to know what’s going on and we don’t know the details” about plans in Iran, Reed said.

Senator Chris Murphy, a Connecticut Democrat on the Foreign Relations Committee, said, “The administration is engaged in a series of blind escalations without any endgame.”

Photo: Wikicommons

Trump Says US Intelligence Services 'Naive,' 'Wrong' on Iran

President Donald Trump on Wednesday attacked the US intelligence services as "naive" and "wrong" on the threat he says is posed by Iran.

"Perhaps Intelligence should go back to school!" Trump said in a blistering tweet.

 "The Intelligence people seem to be extremely passive and naive when it comes to the dangers of Iran. They are wrong!" Trump tweeted.

Although especially vehement, it was not the first time Trump has publicly criticized his own intelligence services.

The broadside, which included separate tweets where Trump praised the success of his policies in Syria and North Korea, followed testimony Tuesday by top intelligence chiefs that were widely seen as contradicting the president's rosy assessments.

In a hearing on global threats at the Senate Intelligence Committee, the top officials took issue with Trump's assertion that the Islamic State group has been defeated, and that North Korea can be convinced to forego its nuclear weapons.

They also challenged the president's claim that Tehran is actively seeking nuclear weapons, the justification Trump gave for withdrawing last year from a multilateral treaty on Iran.

They underscored again that they believe Russia meddled deeply on Trump's behalf in the 2016 presidential election—which he has repeatedly denied—and can be expected to do the same in 2020.

The hearing took place weeks after Trump cited a victory over Islamic State to justify his sudden announcement of an immediate pullout from Syria, a move that alarmed the US defense establishment and allies in the Middle East.

And it came just weeks before Trump plans a second summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to negotiate a hoped-for denuclearization of the deeply isolated state.

Photo Credit: Wikicommons

Iran Still Adhering to Nuclear Deal: CIA Chief

Iran is still abiding by the terms of the 2015 nuclear deal despite the US pullout from the multinational agreement, Central Intelligence chief Gina Haspel said Tuesday.

"At the moment technically they are in compliance" with they Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Haspel told the Senate Intelligence Committee.

"I think the most recent information is the Iranians are considering taking steps that would lessen their adherence to JCPOA as they seek to pressure the European to come through with the investment and trade benefits that Iran hoped to gain from the deal," she said.

"They are making some preparations that would increase their ability to take a step back if they make that decision," she noted.

"But we do see them debating amongst themselves as they failed to realize the economic benefits that they hoped for from the deal."

The United States withdrew from the JCPOA on May 8, 2018, after President Donald Trump concluded it was not in US interests. The administration argued that the windfall from trade would go to finance Iran's regional military activities, and there was no guarantee it would not resume nuclear weapons development after the deal expired.

Washington has since restored tough sanctions that were in place before the deal was reached.

The remaining five signatories to the JCPOA—Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia—have distanced themselves from Trump's move and have supported continued commercial engagement with Tehran.

But, as a number of European companies have pulled out under pressure from US sanctions, those countries have backed an EU effort to set up a special payment system in an attempt to continue trade and business ties with Iran.

Photo Credit: Wikicommons