Iran Says May 'Reconsider' Atomic Watchdog Commitments
◢ Iran warned Sunday it may "seriously reconsider" its commitments to the UN atomic watchdog if European parties to a nuclear deal trigger a dispute mechanism that could lead to sanctions. "If they use the trigger (mechanism), Iran would be forced to seriously reconsider some of its commitments to" the International Atomic Energy Agency, said parliament speaker Ali Larijani.
Iran warned Sunday it may "seriously reconsider" its commitments to the UN atomic watchdog if European parties to a nuclear deal trigger a dispute mechanism that could lead to sanctions.
The 2015 nuclear accord has been unravelling since last year when the United States unilaterally withdrew from it and began reimposing sanctions on Iran.
The three European countries still party to the deal—Britain, France and Germany—have been trying to salvage it but their efforts have so far borne little fruit.
"If they use the trigger (mechanism), Iran would be forced to seriously reconsider some of its commitments to" the International Atomic Energy Agency, said parliament speaker Ali Larijani.
"If they think doing so is more beneficial to them, they can go ahead," he told a news conference in Tehran.
In May, one year after the US pullout, Iran began retaliating by scaling back its commitments to the deal—known formally as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.
Following its latest step back this month, the European parties warned the JCPOA's dispute resolution mechanism could be triggered if Iran continued down that path.
It covers various stages that could take several months to unfold, but the issue could eventually end up before the UN Security Council, which could decide to reimpose sanctions.
Larijani also suggested the current deadlock with the United States could be "fixed" if Iran's arch-foe learns from the past.
Ahead of the 2015 deal, then US president Barack "Obama wrote a letter and said that I accept Iran's enrichment, now let's negotiate," he said.
"If the American officials have just as much wisdom, to use past experiences, then they can fix this issue."
The JCPOA set out restrictions on Iran's nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of Western sanctions.
Photo: IRNA
Iran Seizes 8.8 Tonnes of Narcotics Destined for Europe
◢ Iran has seized 8.8 tonnes of narcotics destined for Europe and uncovered one of the country's largest trafficking rings, police said Thursday. "This huge narcotics shipment, which was hidden in a petrol tanker and reached here via Iran's eastern border, was supposed to be offloaded and then smuggled to European countries," state television reported.
Iran has seized 8.8 tonnes of narcotics destined for Europe and uncovered one of the country's largest trafficking rings, police said Thursday.
"This huge narcotics shipment, which was hidden in a petrol tanker and reached here via Iran's eastern border, was supposed to be offloaded and then smuggled to European countries," state television reported from the northwestern city of Urmia, not far from the Turkish border.
Iran's deputy police chief Ayoub Soleimani said the shipment comprised 3.5 tonnes of morphine and 5.3 tonnes of opium.
He said that nine suspected traffickers were arrested with an additional 20 kilogrammes of heroin and 130 firearms in their possession.
Neighbouring Afghanistan produces some 90 percent of the world's opium, which is extracted from poppy resin and refined to make heroin and morphine.
Iran is a major transit route for Afghan-produced opiates headed to Europe and beyond.
It confiscates and destroys hundreds of tonnes of illicit narcotics every year.
According to the latest UN figures, Iran accounted for 91 percent of the world's opium seizures and 20 percent of heroin and morphine seizures in 2017, amounting to 630 and 39 tonnes respectively.
Iran has repeatedly threatened Europe that if it does not do more to mitigate the impact of US sanctions on its economy, it could invest less in combating drug trafficking.
Washington unilaterally withdrew from a landmark 2015 nuclear deal between Tehran and major powers last May and reimposed sanctions on key sectors such as oil and banking.
"Despite the international pressure and economic sanctions, Iran is still the world's bulwark against drug trafficking," state television said.
Photo: IRNA
Iran Supreme Leader Calls European Trade Mechanism 'Bitter Joke'
◢ Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called a trade mechanism launched by European countries to bypass renewed US sanctions a "bitter joke" on Thursday, in a speech aired by state TV. "This financial channel they recently set up resembles a joke, a bitter joke," Khamenei told a thousands-strong congregation at a shrine in the northeastern city of Mashhad, where he speaks every year to mark Iranian new year.
Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Thursday dismissed a trade mechanism launched by European countries to bypass renewed US sanctions as a "bitter joke" and said Europe could not be trusted.
"This financial channel they recently set up resembles a joke, a bitter joke," Khamenei told a thousands-strong congregation in a televised address at a shrine in the northeastern city of Mashhad, where he speaks every year to mark the Iranian New Year.
Britain, France and Germany launched the special payment system called INSTEX—Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges—in late January after President Donald Trump abruptly quit the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers in May last year.
The three countries were the European signatories to the deal, also signed by the US, Russia and China, that curbed Tehran's nuclear ambitions in return for sanctions relief.
London, Paris and Berlin launched the device in the hope it will help save the deal by allowing Tehran to keep trading with European companies despite Washington reimposing sanctions.
"The difference between what they are obligated to do and what they are proposing is as far as the earth is from the sky," Khamenei said.
"We should completely forego (any hope) of help or cooperation from Westerners in strengthening our economy, we shouldn't wait for them," he said.
"Once again the Europeans have stabbed us in the back, they have betrayed us," Khamenei said, cursing Western politicians as "savages.”
"They wear suits, they put on ties and eau de cologne and carry Samsonite briefcases but they are savages," Khamenei said.
"What I am saying does not mean (Iran) should cut Western ties, not at all... there is no problem in having relations with them, but trusting them is a mistake, don't trust them," he said.
Iran on Tuesday registered a parallel structure to INSTEX called the Special Trade and Finance Institute or STFI, the semi-official ISNA news agency reported.
"With the registration of STFI, we expect that, in cooperation with INSTEX, it would facilitate trade between Iran and Europe and be influential in countering limitations caused by US sanctions," said Iran's central bank governor Abdolnaser Hemmati.
Earlier on Thursday, Khamenei called the economic difficulties of Iranians the most urgent problem facing the country.
"Specially in recent months the difficulties for people's livelihoods have increased," Khamenei said in a prerecorded message to mark the March 21 start of the New Year.
“The economy is the country's urgent problem, it's the country's (most) serious and primary problem," he said, pointing to the rial's devaluation, decline in purchasing power and falling production.
Photo Credit: IRNA
Europe Not to be Trusted: Iran Leader
◢ Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Friday that Europe "cannot be trusted", a week after the EU launched a trade mechanism to bypass US sanctions on Tehran. “These days there's talk of the Europeans and their proposals. My advice is that they shouldn't be trusted, just like the Americans," he said at a meeting with air force officials, his website reported.
Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Friday that Europe "cannot be trusted", a week after the EU launched a trade mechanism to bypass US sanctions on Tehran.
“These days there's talk of the Europeans and their proposals. My advice is that they shouldn't be trusted, just like the Americans," he said at a meeting with air force officials, his website reported.
"I'm not saying we shouldn't have relations with them. This is about trust," he added.
Britain, France and Germany last week launched a special payment mechanism called INSTEX to help save the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers.
It would allow Tehran to keep trading with EU companies in spite of US sanctions renewed after Washington quit the accord last year.
Tehran has cautiously welcomed INSTEX as a "first step", but US officials said the new entity would not have any impact on efforts to exert economic pressure on Iran.
Khamenei also accused Europe of hypocrisy over human rights, criticizing France's treatment of protesters in Paris.
"They (anti-riot police) attack protesters in Paris streets and blind them, then they have the audacity to make human rights requests of us," he said.
Turning to the United States, Khamenei said Iranians would chant "death to America" as long as Washington kept up its hostile policies, but the slogan was not directed at the American people.
"Death to America means death to (President Donald) Trump, (National Security Advisor) John Bolton and (Secretary of State Mike) Pompeo. It means death to America's rulers... we have nothing against the American people," he said.
Photo Credit: IRNA
Macron Wants Iran to Sell Oil, Urges Dialogue
◢ French President Emmanuel Macron said Tuesday that Iran should be allowed to keep selling oil and urged dialogue as he rejected a US push to isolate the clerical regime. Speaking to reporters after addressing the United Nations General Assembly, Macron said that Iranian sales would bring down the price of oil—a professed concern of US President Donald Trump.
French President Emmanuel Macron said Tuesday that Iran should be allowed to keep selling oil and urged dialogue as he rejected a US push to isolate the clerical regime.
Speaking to reporters after addressing the United Nations General Assembly, Macron said that Iranian sales would bring down the price of oil—a professed concern of US President Donald Trump.
"It would be good for the price of oil for Iran to be able to sell it. It's good for peace and it's good for the shape of the international price of oil," Macron said.
France and other European powers are setting up a way to allow businesses to keep doing business in Iran in hopes of avoiding sanctions by the United States, which has withdrawn from the 2015 nuclear deal.
Addressing world leaders shortly after Trump, the French president credited the accord with curbing the nuclear program of Iran.
“What will bring a real solution to the situation in Iran and what has already stabilized it? The law of the strongest? Pressure from only one side? No!" Macron said in his address.
"We know that Iran was on a nuclear military path but what stopped it? The 2015 Vienna accord."
Trump has withdrawn from the seven-nation agreement negotiated under his successor Barack Obama, calling it a "disaster" and instead ramping up pressure on Iran including through renewed sanctions.
Supported by Israel and Saudi Arabia, Trump has sought to roll back Iranian influence around the Middle East, including in war-ravaged Syria.
But Macron said: "We should not aggravate regional tensions but rather through dialogue and multilateralism pursue a broader agenda that allows us to address all the concerns caused by Iranian policies—nuclear, ballistic, regional."
Photo Credit: White House
Iran's Options to Face Down US Oil Sanctions
◢ Iran faces a potentially crushing loss of oil exports when US sanctions return in November, but the impact could be blunted by its experience of working around embargoes. When Iran faced its toughest international sanctions between 2012 and 2015, analysts say it found a number of creative solutions, from repainting and renaming ships to switching off their tracking devices.
Iran faces a potentially crushing loss of oil exports when US sanctions return in November, but the impact could be blunted by its experience of working around embargoes.
When Iran faced its toughest international sanctions between 2012 and 2015, analysts say it found a number of creative solutions, from repainting and renaming ships to switching off their tracking devices.
Those tactics have continued.
"We find those tankers quite often, leaving and entering Iran in a covert fashion with their transponder turned off," said Samir Madani, co-founder of TankerTrackers.com, which monitors the oil trade.
"We spot them through satellites. I'd say several vessels a month," he told AFP.
Analysts expect such behavior to ramp up when US sanctions on Iran's oil industry return on November 5, following Washington's withdrawal from the nuclear deal in May.
US pressure has already caused a 24 percent drop in Iran's sales between May and August, according to Bloomberg.
The big surprise has been cuts by Asian buyers, which analysts expected to resist US pressure, notably a 35 percent drop by China and 49 percent by India, according to the Eurasia Group consultancy.
"We underestimated the degree to which New Delhi and Beijing would concede to Washington's demands," it said in a briefing note.
Eurasia Group said wider geopolitics are at play: India is looking to deepen strategic ties with the US, while China may wish to avoid a fresh spat when it is already embroiled in a bitter trade dispute with Washington.
Iran was exporting 2.7 million barrels of oil per day in May, but that has already fallen to 2.1 million.
Overall, Eurasia Group predicts the country's sales will fall by a further 0.9 million barrels per day to 1.2 million by November.
That would mean a loss of some USD 2-2.5 billion a month, at current prices.
'Cat and Mouse'
But analysts say Washington's goal of reducing Iran's oil sales to zero is unrealistic.
Iran has the world's fourth-largest reserves, and many countries—particularly in Asia—rely on its supplies and have refineries designed for its particular flavor of heavy crude.
And Tehran has many tried and tested ways to keep oil flowing.
It has already increased price discounts since May, worth around USD 10-15 million a month to large importers like China and India compared with last year, said Wood Mackenzie, a consultancy.
"Buyers can pay in kind, trade in other currencies, or extend credit—even keep the money in an escrow account in Switzerland and wait until these sanctions are over. India had a deal like that last time," said Madani.
If Iran can get its oil to a friendly port, it could be blended with oil from elsewhere and resold, said Thijs Van de Graaf, assistant professor for international politics at the University of Ghent.
"Iran played a cat and mouse game last time... and will probably do so again," he told AFP.
It also has more aggressive options, with President Hassan Rouhani recently restating an old threat to block the vital Strait of Hormuz through which around a third of the world's seaborne oil passes every day.
Rouhani announced last week that Iran was moving its main oil terminal out of the Gulf to a port in the Oman Sea, so that its tankers would no longer need to pass through the strait, giving it more scope to disrupt supplies.
Pressure on Europe
Iran says it will not accept major drops in its oil sales, putting pressure particularly on Europe, which was buying more than a fifth of its oil, to resist US demands.
The EU strongly opposed Washington's decision to scrap the nuclear deal and has vowed to introduce a package of measures to protect trade with Iran.
But European firms are highly vulnerable to US sanctions.
Shipping, banking and insurance firms have already backed out of Iran and oil purchases are down by 35 percent.
"If we cannot continue (the previous) level of sales even after the European package has been implemented, then that is a red line for us," warned deputy foreign minister Abbas Araghchi on state television.
Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned recently that Iran would "set aside" the nuclear deal if it was no longer receiving the economic benefits it promised.
One slight upside for Iran is that oil prices are already rising due to the squeeze caused by the looming US sanctions.
Some analysts predict prices could exceed USD 100 per barrel, from the current level of around USD 70.
The United States has pressured its ally Saudi Arabia to pump more oil to compensate for the loss of Iranian supplies.
"In theory, it is perfectly possible to have an increased price of oil that entirely compensates for the loss of exports. That's why the US-Saudi relationship is key here," said Van der Graaf.
Photo Credit: IRNA
European Losers in New Iranian Sanctions Game
◢ US President Donald Trump's decision to pull the United States out of the 2015 nuclear accord with Iran and reimpose a raft of sanctions will hit European businesses working in Iran. Here is an overview of how firms stand to be affected when the sanctions kick in Monday.
US President Donald Trump's decision to pull the United States out of the 2015 nuclear accord with Iran and reimpose a raft of sanctions will hit European businesses working in Iran. Here is an overview of how firms stand to be affected when the sanctions kick in Monday:
Auto
French automakers Renault and PSA have taken different approaches publicly. PSA, behind the Peugeot, Citroen and Opel brands, said in June it was preparing to suspend activities in the Islamic republic, its chief foreign market by volume, noting those units account for "less than one percent of sales."
The group, which is Europe's second biggest carmaker, last year sold more than 445,000 vehicles in Iran, making the country one of its biggest markets outside France.
Renault says it intends to keep up activities in Iran albeit scaling them back. On July 16, the automaker announced a 10.3 percent drop in sales in Iran to 61,354 units.
Germany's Daimler was teaming up with two Iranian firms to assemble Mercedes-Benz trucks.
Volkswagen also said last year it would seek to resume sales in Iran for the first time in 17 years, yet the scale of its US activities could force the jettisoning of those plans.
German firms' business with Iran was a modest USD 2.6 billion of 2016 exports rising to 3.0 billion last year. Italy is Iran's main European trading partner -- but Germany is still the bloc's biggest exporter to Tehran.
Aviation
Aviation saw beefy contracts drawn up following the nuclear accord as Iran targets modernization of an aging fleet.
Airbus booked deals for 100 jets although to date only three have been delivered after having US licenses bestowed upon them -- a necessity given some parts are US-made.
The potential loss of business in Iran would not weigh overly heavily on Airbus as overall orders on its books at the end of June stood at 7,168 planes. Franco-Italian planemaker ATR was fretting on the fate of 20 planes earmarked for Iranian delivery -- though Iran Air said Saturday five ATR-72600 aircraft would arrive Sunday, creeping under the deadline to add to eight already delivered.
Oil
French energy giant Total has moved away from a contract to develop an offshore gas field at South Pars in what would have been the first project of its kind since the 2015 nuclear deal.
Because Total's investment in the field had barely just begun, the company is avoiding incurring significant losses on a $5 billion project which Iran says Chinese group CNPC will now take up.
After a 30 percent jump in 2016 in exports of Italian-made goods to Iran, Italian exports grew 12.5 percent last year to 1.7 billion euros, according to official data.
But energy giant Eni has held back on returning to Iran, preferring to wait on the impact of the latest sanctions.
Britain's BP, which started life as the Anglo-Persian Oil Company, has no presence in Iran. Although Anglo-Dutch giant Royal Dutch Shell signed a deal in 2016 to explore possible investments it does not currently have any operations on the ground.
Railways and Shipbuilding
Italy stands to lose out in these sectors with national railway operator Ferrovie dello Stato Italiano having signed a deal to build a high-speed line linking Qom to Arak in northern Iran.
Shipmaker Fincantieri, engineering firm Maire Tecnimont and gas boiler maker Immergas has also signed a string of deals with Iran which now are also threatened.
Tourism
British Airways and German carrier Lufthansa face having to stop only recently resumed direct flights to Tehran or face losing Transatlantic business.
The dilemma applies to French hotel chain AccorHotels, which opened an establishment in Iran in 2015, as well as to Emirati group Rotana Hotels, which has designs on its own Iranian operation.
Spain's Melia Hotels International chain, which signed a 2016 deal to run a five star hotel in Iran, the Gran Melia Ghoo, says the establishment is under construction and that discussion of its future is "premature."
Industry
Siemens returned to Iran in 2016 seeking to sell gas turbines and generators for electricity stations and has won a contract to sell compressors for a natural gas processor.
"The mega contracts hoped for when sanctions were lifted were never realized," KPMG advisor Kaveh Taghizadeh was recently quoted as saying in Stern magazine.
"Siemens will continue to ensure it remains in strict compliance with relevant international export control restrictions and all other applicable laws and regulations, including US secondary sanctions," Siemens spokesman Yashar Azad told AFP.
He added Siemens "will take appropriate actions to align its business with the changing multilateral framework regarding Iran." French industrial gas group Air Liquide says it will "cease all commercial activity" in the country although a spokesperson says the firm has "no investments" there.
Pharmaceuticals
Pharmaceutical giant Sanofi, in Iran for over a decade, remains operating "in full compliance with international regulations", a spokesman said, while adding "it is still too early to comment on the potential impact" of sanctions.
Banks
Germany's big banks, Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank, stayed clear of Iran after the US fined them hugely in 2015 for violating previous sanctions. Regional banks Helaba and DZ Bank pulled out of Iran after the US announced it was reimposing sanctions.
Photo Credit: Scania
Netanyahu Heads to Europe Seeking About-Face on Iran
◢ Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu embarks Monday on a three-day European tour in Germany set to be dominated by strategic differences on Iran, as leaders attempt to rescue the nuclear deal after US withdrawal.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu embarks Monday on a three-day European tour in Germany set to be dominated by strategic differences on Iran, as leaders attempt to rescue the nuclear deal after US withdrawal.
With partners in Berlin, Paris and London still reeling from President Donald Trump's decision last month to exit the hard-fought 2015 accord, Netanyahu is expected to seek European cooperation on a still-to-be-determined Plan B.
"The aim to prevent Iran from developing any kind of nuclear capacity was always the foundation of international policy on Iran," Israel's ambassador to Germany, Jeremy Issacharoff, told AFP ahead of the visit.
Issacharoff said that despite "differences of opinion" on how to achieve the aim of hemming in Iran on nuclear matters, "we share the same goal".
Germany, France and Britain are three of the signatories of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) between world powers and Iran, aimed at keeping Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons.
Netanyahu, who has railed against the deal which offers sanctions relief in exchange for strict limits on Iran's nuclear activities, will hold talks with Chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin in the late afternoon, followed by a joint news conference.
He will continue on to Paris for meetings with French President Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday and British Prime Minister Theresa May on Wednesday.
'Not Perfect'
In the face of the US retreat, all three leaders strongly defend the agreement as the best way to head off a regional arms race and have vowed with Russia and China, the two other signatory countries, to keep it alive.
German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas huddled with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi on Thursday and insisted that Berlin "wants to maintain the nuclear agreement and make sure Iran maintains it too."
At the same news conference, Wang launched an unvarnished attack on US reliability in global affairs under Trump.
"It is a truism of international law that international accords must be respected... (and) major countries must set an example, not do the opposite," he said.
Supporters also fear the reimposition of US sanctions could hit European firms that have done business with Iran since the accord was signed.
Merkel has acknowledged that while European powers see the JCPOA as the best guarantee against an Iran with nuclear weapons, it is "not perfect".
The Europeans have proposed hammering out a supplementary deal with Tehran covering its ballistic missile program as well as its interventions in countries such as Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen.
Western powers view Iran's meddling as destabilizing for the region while Israel sees it as a direct threat to its existence.
"I will discuss with them ways to block Iran's nuclear aspirations and Iran's expansion in the Middle East," Netanyahu said last week of his European meetings, noting the issues were "crucial to Israel's security".
Israel is considered the leading military power in the Middle East and believed to be the only country in the region to possess nuclear weapons.
Photo Credit: Kremlin.ru
Iran Accuses US of Breaking Promises
◢ Iran cannot "interact" with the United States as it is a country whose word cannot be trusted, supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was quoted as saying on Wednesday. His comments came after US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Monday warned that Iran would be hit with the "strongest sanctions in history" and cautioned European firms against continuing to do business in Tehran.
Iran cannot "interact" with the United States as it is a country whose word cannot be trusted, supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was quoted as saying on Wednesday.
"The first experience is that the government of the Islamic Republic cannot interact with America... Why? Because America is not committed to its promises," Press TV quoted him in English as saying.
His comments came after US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Monday warned that Iran would be hit with the "strongest sanctions in history" and cautioned European firms against continuing to do business in Tehran.
The move was a toughening-up of Washington's policy line after its withdrawal on May 8 from a landmark nuclear pact aimed at preventing Tehran from developing a nuclear weapon.
Pompeo outlined 12 tough conditions from Washington for any "new deal" with Tehran to make sure it "will never again have carte blanche to dominate the Middle East".
US President Donald Trump pulled out of the nuclear deal earlier this month despite intense diplomatic efforts by European allies who had beseeched him to stick with it by adding tougher new elements.
Trump opposed the 2015 deal with Iran—also signed by Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia—believing it did not go far enough.
The international community, including top US officials, said earlier Tehran had been in compliance with the terms of the deal but Trump despised it, pointing to other aspects of Iranian behavior not covered in the pact.
Photo Credit: khameini.ir
U.S. Trying to Move Forward After Quitting Iran Nuclear Deal
◢ After leaving the Iran nuclear deal, Washington wants to move forward by offering to build a "coalition" to counter the multiple "threats" posed by the Tehran regime—but Europeans intent on saving the 2015 accord may thwart that effort. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Monday will unveil a new "diplomatic roadmap" for Iran.
After leaving the Iran nuclear deal, Washington wants to move forward by offering to build a "coalition" to counter the multiple "threats" posed by the Tehran regime—but Europeans intent on saving the 2015 accord may thwart that effort.
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Monday will unveil a new "diplomatic roadmap" for Iran—how America plans to "address the totality of Iran's threats," according to the State Department's director of policy planning, Brian Hook.
Washington is looking to draft a "new security architecture and a better security framework, a better deal," Hook told reporters ahead of the speech, the first major policy address by Pompeo since he became America's top diplomat.
"The US will be working hard to put together a coalition," State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert said, flagging Washington's bid for a multilateral approach after its unilateral withdrawal from the accord.
President Donald Trump has long trashed the deal with Iran—concluded under his predecessor Barack Obama, together with Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia—saying it did not do enough to curtail Tehran's nuclear ambitions.
The Republican leader also said it did not go far enough in restricting Iran's ballistic missile program, or its intervention in regional conflicts from Yemen to Iraq and Syria.
"We need a new—a framework that's going to address the totality of Iran's threats," Hook said.
So far, the guidelines of this new strategy are unclear.
The big unknown is whether European leaders, who were bitterly disappointed by Trump's decision to ditch the deal, would be willing to return to talks with his administration any time soon.
For now, the European Union is trying to persuade Iran to stay in the 2015 agreement, even without Washington's participation.
Punishment Strategy
The re-establishment of the US sanctions that were lifted after the Iran nuclear deal was signed will force European companies to choose between investing in Iran or trading with the United States.
In reality, there is no choice—European companies cannot afford to forsake the US market And with investment from Europe—which had been the main carrot dangled before the Iranians to right their struggling economy—now stymied, Tehran may have little incentive to hold up its end of the bargain.
The Europeans have tried to squeeze a little flexibility out of Washington to help out their firms, but to no avail.
"They tell us, 'We want the sanctions to hurt, there won't be any exemptions,'" said one European official.
Some in the US administration are calling for a "North Korea scenario," meaning the imposition of sanctions so severe that they force Iran back to the negotiating table.
By reimposing the sanctions, Washington aims to "bring economic pressure to bear on Iran," Hook said.
"It was economic pressure that brought the Iranians to the table a few years ago."
But Jake Sullivan, a former Obama administration official who is now a researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said "the idea that we are going to be able to reconstruct sanctions at the same level (as 2015) is a flawed concept."
"The more aggressive the US is in telling the Europeans basically, 'We have you under our thumbs,' the more the Europeans are going to say: 'We will find any means we possibly can to not let you do that to us,'" he said Friday.
Washington has meanwhile sought to downplay the differences with its allies.
"We agree with the Europeans on much, much more than we disagree on," said Hook, citing "a lot of progress" during talks with Paris, London and Berlin that aimed to find solutions to Trump's concerns. The US official also mentioned French President Emmanuel Macron's proposal of a "new deal," based on the 2015 accord, but offering a broader strategy on
Iran.
But those negotiations, and Macron's proposal, pre-dated the abrupt US withdrawal from the accord. Are they still on the table? And how could an accord be reached now if it was impossible 10 days ago?
"We are waiting to see more details," said a European official.
Another European official warned: "But if it is a question of building a coalition to push for regime change in Iran, the Europeans won't be on board."
For Sullivan, the next phase is one in which "the punishment is the strategy—squeezing Iran and keeping them in the penalty box for as long as possible, and as much as possible, with the hope of regime change, but if it's not regime change, (then) a weaker regime."
Photo Credit: Wikicommons
Iran FM Arrives in China On Diplomatic Tour to Save Nuclear Deal
◢ Iran's foreign minister arrived in Beijing Sunday, Iranian media said, on the first leg of a whirlwind diplomatic tour designed to try and rescue the nuclear deal left on the brink of collapse after the US pulled out. Mohammad Javad Zarif will later fly to Moscow and Brussels to consult with the remaining signatories to the 2015 agreement denounced by President Donald Trump.
Iran's foreign minister arrived in Beijing Sunday, Iranian media said, on the first leg of a whirlwind diplomatic tour designed to try and rescue the nuclear deal left on the brink of collapse after the US pulled out.
Mohammad Javad Zarif will later fly to Moscow and Brussels to consult with the remaining signatories to the 2015 agreement denounced by President Donald Trump.
Washington's decision to withdraw from the agreement and reimpose sanctions infuriated its allies in Europe as well as China and Russia.
China was one of the six powers—with the United States, Russia, France, the UK and Germany—that signed the historic pact which saw sanctions lifted in return for the commitment by Tehran not to acquire nuclear weapons.
As he arrived in Beijing, Zarif said, "we will discuss the decision that Iran should take", according to the semi-official ISNA news agency.
He added: "As the president of the republic has said, we are ready for all option(s). If the nuclear deal is to continue, the interests of the people of Iran must be assured."
Zarif, who is set to hold talks with his opposite number Wang Yi, hailed Tehran's relations with Beijing, ISNA reported.
"We have had good relations with China before and since the deal," he said. "China is by far the first economic partner of Iran. We are certain that today China is by our side."
Tehran's chief diplomat embarked on the tour as regional tensions spiked just days after unprecedented Israeli strikes in Syria which a monitor said killed at least 11 Iranian fighters, triggering fears of a broader conflict between the two arch-enemies.
Before leaving, Zarif published a government statement on his Twitter page, slamming Trump's "extremist administration" for abandoning "an accord recognized as a victory of diplomacy by the international community."
It reiterated that Iran was preparing to resume "industrial scale" uranium enrichment "without any restrictions" unless Europe provided solid guarantees it could maintain trade ties despite renewed US sanctions.
Trump hit back Saturday evening, tweeting that the accord had failed to contain Iran's militarism.
"Iran's Military Budget is up more than 40 percent since the Obama negotiated Nuclear Deal was reached... just another indicator that it was all a big lie," he wrote.
Zarif's delicate diplomatic mission was complicated by reports of clashes between Iranian and Israeli forces in Syria on Thursday.
The Syrian Observatory of Human Rights said Saturday that 11 Iranians were among the pro-regime fighters killed in strikes by Israel, which has vowed to prevent Iran gaining a military foothold in neighboring Syria.
Tehran, which has sought to avoid an escalation in a regional conflict that could alienate its European partners, has not commented on whether its forces were hit.
Israel and its allies have blamed Iran's Revolutionary Guards for initiating Thursday's exchange by launching missiles into the occupied Golan Heights.
Iran denies the claims, saying the Israeli strikes were launched on "invented pretexts."
Allies Fume at Trump
Meanwhile, European diplomats in Tehran fumed that Trump's decision to withdraw from the nuclear deal could undermine years of patient work to restore commercial and diplomatic ties with the Islamic Republic.
"Since the signing of the JCPOA (nuclear deal), we have gone from an atmosphere like a gold rush, to one of utter depression," said a Western trade diplomat on condition of anonymity.
"We are waiting now for how the decision makers in the European Union will react. If the EU leans towards accommodating the US, all the progress we have made since 2015 will be lost."
Iranian hardliners—who have long opposed President Hassan Rouhani's moves to improve ties with the West—are already mobilizing against the efforts to save the nuclear deal.
Mohammad Ali Jafari, head of the Revolutionary Guards, said the country could not rely on the West.
"We hope recent events will lead us not to trust in the West and even Europeans," he said Sunday, according to the conservative-linked Fars news agency.
"The Europeans have repeated on several occasions that they will not be able to resist US sanctions."
He added if the European powers were unable to make guarantees, "we must choose the path of self-sufficiency and nuclear industry with our own capabilities".
The sentiment was echoed on the streets. "Officials shouldn't trust France and Britain. They will never abandon the US for us," said housewife Poormoslem at a protest against Trump on Friday.
A photo on the official Instagram site of supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei showed him reading a Farsi translation of Michael Wolff's blistering account of the Trump White House, "The Fire and the Fury", quickly picking up more than 100,000 likes.
Khamenei said this week he is highly doubtful that Europe will provide the "real guarantees" needed for Iran to stay in the nuclear deal.
But analysts said Iran was determined to maintain the moral high ground in the coming weeks.
"For the first time, Iran has the chance to show the world they are not the rogue nation they are always presented as, that they negotiated in good faith and keep to their commitments," said Karim Emile Bitar of the Institute for International and Strategic Studies in Paris.
The challenge for Rouhani is to maintain his diplomatic efforts in the face of mounting challenges at home, where Iranians were already suffering high unemployment and inflation before Trump's decision.
Photo Credit: IRNA
Europeans Will 'Do Everything' to Protect Companies in Iran: French Presidency
◢ European officials will "do everything" possible to protect the interests of companies working in Iran, which may now be exposed to new US sanctions against the country, an official in the French presidency said Wednesday.
European officials will "do everything" possible to protect the interests of companies working in Iran, which may now be exposed to new US sanctions against the country, an official in the French presidency said Wednesday.
Following President Donald Trump's decision to pull out of the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran and reimpose sanctions, European governments are going "to do everything to protect the interests" of their companies, said the official, speaking on condition of anonymity.
French diplomats said Trump's decision, announced in a short address to the nation on Tuesday, was expected despite efforts by President Emmanuel Macron to sway the US leader.
"Of course this decision is a worry, there are tensions," a second official said.
"It will be difficult to maintain this agreement in these conditions but we will do everything to find a way to protect this multilateral framework."
At a press briefing, the diplomats countered criticism that Macron had been ineffective in lobbying Trump to respect the accord during a state visit to Washington at the end of April.
Despite both men boasting of their close relationship in public, Trump did not inform Macron of his choice beforehand, even during a phone call between the two men just hours before his announcement.
"It was our responsibility to do it (lobbying Trump to stay in the agreement)," the first French official said. "And we did it with full knowledge of the facts."
He added that Macron would continue to play a crucial role in trying to salvage the agreement—which the EU, Russia and China say they want to keep—and reduce tensions in the Middle East.
"He's the only leader who has the ability to talk to other leaders involved, even those that don't talk to each other," the official said.
"That's something, above all in this time of tensions, that is precious."
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