Britain, France, Germany to Hold Iran Talks

By Damon Wake

Britain, France and Germany will hold talks Friday on how to preserve the beleaguered Iran nuclear deal and protect shipping in the Persian Gulf.

Tensions have spiked recently in the strategic shipping lane where Iran has seized Western tankers as Tehran and Washington have locked horns over the 2015 deal.

US President Donald Trump last year unilaterally pulled out of the accord that handed Iran relief from sanctions in return for curbs on its atomic programme.

The move alarmed European powers, which see the deal as the best way to stop Iran acquiring nuclear weapons, and infuriated the Islamic republic.

The foreign ministers of Britain, France and Germany -- the three European parties to the deal -- will be joined by EU diplomatic chief Federica Mogherini for talks on the sidelines of an EU meeting in Helsinki

All have repeatedly said they are committed to saving the deal, but efforts to shield Iran's economy from the reimposition of US sanctions have so far borne little fruit.

The G7 summit last weekend brought a glimmer of hope as Trump indicated willingness to talk to Iran and Mogherini said the EU would support such a move -- provided the current deal was preserved.

'Build on Momentum'

Ahead of the meeting, British foreign minister Dominic Raab said they would aim to "build on the momentum of the positive G7 talks on Iran.”

As well as mooting the summit with his Iranian counterpart Hassan Rouhani, Trump also appeared open to a French suggestion that Iran be given a line of credit to help stabilise its economy.

"The nuclear deal is the only deal on the table that prevents Iran from getting a nuclear weapon and we will continue working together to encourage Iran to uphold the agreement in full," Raab said.

"We also need the broadest international support possible to tackle the threats to international shipping in the Strait of Hormuz."

Britain, along with Australia and Bahrain, has joined Washington's Operation Sentinel mission to protect commercial shipping on the crucial oil trade routes through the Gulf, in particular at the Strait of Hormuz.

Other European countries have been cool on the idea, fearing greater naval presence in the region could risk escalating an already febrile situation still further.

The idea has been floated of a European observation mission in the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic choke point at the mouth of the Gulf, but a number of EU countries have voiced reservations.

Mogherini on Thursday gave a cautious welcome to the idea of US-Iran talks but stressed that "first and foremost what is existing needs to be preserved" -- including the 2015 deal.

In response to the US pulling out of the deal and reimposing sanctions, Tehran has breached certain limits on its nuclear production imposed by the accord, but the EU insists Iran has so far not taken any irreversible steps.

Photo: Wikicommons

Trump Sees Chance With Boris Johnson to Lure UK on Iran, Huawei

By David Wainer

As Boris Johnson hurtles toward a no-deal Brexit that could leave the U.K. diplomatically adrift and economically vulnerable, President Donald Trump is looking to seize an opportunity to lure the country away from Europe on some of his top foreign policy priorities: Iran and Huawei.

Yet with Johnson focused on negotiating a breakup with the European Union—and perhaps a snap election at home—the White House may have to be patient in its hopes that the U.K.’s leadership change will bring closer alignment on issues including sanctioning Iran’s nuclear program and blocking Huawei Technologies Co. equipment from new 5G mobile networks.

Trump is pressing his case regardless. He and Johnson spoke by phone last week about “areas of further cooperation,” including trade, 5G technology and global security, according to a White House statement. With Johnson—a “good man” Trump has long praised for wanting to leave the EU—now at 10 Downing Street, the U.S. sees Johnson’s need for an eventual bilateral trade deal with America as leverage to peel Britain away from Europe on key issues.

In a first bid to serve as a bridge between the White House and European allies, the U.K. announced on Monday that it will lead “an international mission to restore safe passage” in the Persian Gulf, working with partners including the U.S. Navy. The move offers a face-saving opportunity for countries that spurned a U.S.-led initiative because they blame Trump for quitting the 2015 nuclear accord with Iran.

A senior White House official said the U.S. expects cooperation will grow more robust with the new government, as the two countries work together extensively on security issues including North Korea. Secretary of State Michael Pompeo predicted the nations that long have boasted of their “special relationship” will grow even closer.

“I think we’ll find that there’s a very good working relationship there,” Pompeo said in a Bloomberg TV interview last month. “When the prime minister gets his feet on the ground, I’m looking forward to having a chance to chat with him and his foreign secretary so that we can deliver on behalf of these two important democracies.”

New Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab will be in Washington this week, and his language will be mined for clues on where the U.K. is headed.

Working in the U.S.’s favor is Johnson’s need to seal a trade deal with Washington after the U.K.’s departure from the EU, expected Oct. 31. To help smooth that process, Johnson could take more symbolic steps to spurn Europe and sidle up to Trump.

Key Question: Iran

Johnson’s proposal on Gulf maritime security was welcomed by the U.S. But that doesn’t mean he’s ready to follow Trump in quitting the multinational nuclear agreement the American president has called the “worst deal ever.” In announcing the maritime mission, Raab, the foreign minister, said, “We remain committed to working with Iran and our international partners to de-escalate the situation and maintain the nuclear deal.”

Johnson has repeatedly signaled that he’s a strong supporter of the nuclear deal, which the U.K. and other participating nations have struggled to maintain in the face of renewed U.S. sanctions against Iran. As British foreign minister in 2018, when Trump pulled out of the agreement, Johnson said talks with Tehran culminating in a new accord were difficult to imagine.

“One of the big questions is whether he will break with European unity on Iran,” said Richard Nephew, a Columbia University scholar who was part of the U.S. team that negotiated the nuclear accord. “He needs Trump on his side, at the very least promising a favorable trade deal, as he takes the U.K. down the Brexit route.”

Germany’s Worries

In Germany, there’s concern that Johnson and Trump will try to build a new version of the “special relationship,” according to a coalition official in Berlin.

The Germans see Johnson’s intention to seek a trade deal with the U.S. at a time when the EU is already negotiating such a pact as further evidence of a breach, said the official, who asked not to identified discussing Britain’s political direction. French President Emmanuel Macron’s aides also routinely say that they see the British as potential trouble-makers on trade.

Despite receiving invitations, Johnson hasn’t traveled to the major European capitals. By contrast, his predecessor went to Berlin within days of coming to power.

In the most telling example of friction between London and its European partners, the U.K. undercut a French-led initiative to find a common candidate to lead the International Monetary Fund. Mere hours before EU governments were to begin voting on a candidate, the U.K. suddenly objected to the process and said it wouldn’t take part in offering a potential nominee or in the voting, according to a source familiar with the interaction.

All this is fertile ground for the White House to act to pull the U.K. away, and the promise of a free-trade deal is the biggest carrot of all for a prime minister determined to bring about Brexit and deliver on its promised benefits. That’s why Johnson’s meeting with Trump at the Group of Seven summit in France this month will be the most-watched bilateral of them all for the Europeans.

Picking an Envoy

Johnson will also have a chance to appoint a new ambassador to Washington because Kim Darroch abruptly resigned last month after the leak of internal messages in which he criticized the Trump administration as “clumsy and inept.”

Johnson’s failure to defend Darroch in a televised campaign debate brought criticism from a Foreign Office official who said he’d thrown the ambassador “under a bus.”

Trump had failed to win British support on a number of issues under former Prime Minister Theresa May. A U.K. government official said the U.S. relationship can only improve in light of May’s lack of rapport with Trump. The official predicted a strengthening of relations, drawing on new opportunities on trade and other issues, but not a total reset of ties.

Even under Johnson, breaking the U.K. away from the European Union on foreign policy will be tough, according to three senior European diplomats with knowledge of the new British government. Any moves to cozy up to Trump may be more symbolic than substantive, particularly because Johnson has to worry about maintaining a single-seat majority in the House of Commons.

‘Political Opportunists’

“What Trump and Johnson have in common is they are political opportunists,” said Charles Kupchan, former senior director for European Affairs at the National Security Council in the Obama administration. “They believe in America First, Britain First. They’re out for themselves and I don’t think either Trump or Johnson will be making sacrifices to help each other.”

And while the U.K. is still reviewing its position on Huawei, which the U.S. sees as a stalking horse for Chinese spying and wants banned from allied nations, all four U.K. carriers are already building their 5G networks using equipment from Huawei. BT Group Plc’s EE and Vodafone Group Plc have even gone live with their Huawei-supported 5G. Delaying or freezing that deployment would be an additional hit to an increasingly fragile British economy.

Showman Politics

Trump may have to be patient, knowing the U.K. leader has other priorities. Unlike May, who Trump publicly criticized on multiple occasions, the president sees in Johnson’s rise a vindication of his own style of showman politics.

“Trump from the get-go has been a supporter of getting on with Brexit and he likes populist and right-wing leaders, wherever they may be,” said Kupchan, the former Obama administration official who’s now a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.

But unlike Trump, Johnson has less room for error on the world stage and is therefore expected to be less volatile. While Trump can insult allies and foes, tear up agreements, and still command any leader’s attention, the U.K. is a diminishing power, said Andreas Krieg, who teaches defense studies at King’s College London.

“He talks about building a Global Britain but he know there’s no capacity to build a global power,” said Krieg. “He understands Britain is not America.”

Photo: Wikicommons

UK Joins US in Persian Gulf Mission After Iran Taunts

By Joe Jackson and Amir Havasi

Britain said Monday it will join forces with the United States to protect merchant vessels in the Persian Gulf amid heightened tensions with Iran, after Tehran taunted Washington that its allies were too "ashamed" to join the mission.

Britain's decision to form the joint maritime taskforce with the United States marks a departure in policy under new Prime Minister Boris Johnson, after efforts under his predecessor Theresa May to form a European-led grouping.

It follows a spate of incidents -- including the seizure of ships -- between Iran and Western powers, in particular Britain and the US, centred on the vital Strait of Hormuz thoroughfare.

"The UK is determined to ensure her shipping is protected from unlawful threats, and for that reason we have today joined the new maritime security mission in the Gulf," Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said in a statement.

The announcement from Britain's defence ministry did not detail which, if any, other countries would be joining the new naval coalition.

Britain was also at pains to stress that it had not changed its broader policy towards Tehran.

"We remain committed to working with Iran and our international partners to de-escalate the situation and maintain the nuclear deal," Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said.

The announcement came hours after Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said Washington was increasingly isolated in its hardline stance against Tehran and its allies were too "ashamed" to join its forces in the Gulf.

He also dismissed US calls for talks as a sham, confirming he had turned down an offer to meet President Donald Trump last month despite the threat of US sanctions against him.

"Today the United States is alone in the world and cannot create a coalition," he said.

"Friendly countries are too ashamed of being in a coalition with them," Zarif told a news conference, saying they had "brought this situation upon themselves, with law-breaking, by creating tensions and crises."

Germany 'Not in Favor’

Tehran and Washington have been locked in a battle of nerves since last year when Trump withdrew the US from a landmark 2015 deal placing curbs on Iran's nuclear programme and began reimposing sanctions.

Tensions have spiked since the Trump administration began stepping up a campaign of "maximum pressure" against Iran.

Drones have been downed and tankers seized by Iranian authorities or mysteriously attacked in Gulf waters, while Britain has detained an Iranian tanker off Gibraltar.

At the height of the crisis, Trump called off air strikes against Iran at the last minute in June after the Islamic republic's forces shot down a US drone.

Iran said on Sunday its forces had seized a "foreign" tanker carrying smuggled fuel in what would be the third such seizure in less than a month in Persian Gulf waters—a conduit for much of the world's crude oil.

Last month the Guards said they had impounded the Panama-flagged MT Riah for alleged fuel smuggling as well as the British-flagged Stena Impero for breaking "international maritime rules".

In response to such incidents, the US has been seeking to form a coalition—dubbed Operation Sentinel—to guarantee freedom of navigation in the Persian Gulf.

Last month Britain, while still led by former prime minister May, proposed a European-led maritime protection force.

But both plans struggled to find partners, with European countries believed to be reluctant to be dragged into a conflict.

Germany said Monday it was currently "not in favour" of joining an American-led coalition.

'Left the Table'

Meanwhile the US continues to target Iran economically, while holding out the prospect of possible talks.

It imposed sanctions against Zarif on Wednesday—under the same sanctions already applied to supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei—targeting any assets he has in America and squeezing his ability to travel.

Meanwhile however the New Yorker magazine reported that Senator Rand Paul had met Zarif in the US on July 15 and had Trump's blessing when he invited the Iranian minister to go to the White House.

Zarif dismissed as disingenuous US "claims" it wants dialogue.

"They were the ones who left the table... Who do they want to negotiate with?" he said.

But Zarif did not rule out talks in the future, saying: "Even in times of war negotiations will exist."

Photo: CENTCOM

Britain Rules Out Seized Tanker Swap With Iran

By Dmitry Zaks

Britain on Monday ruled out swapping seized oil tankers with Iran as a second UK warship arrived in the Gulf to conduct convoys that have irritated Tehran.

A sense of crisis in the world's busiest oil shipping lane has been building up for weeks as Iran responds to US President Donald Trump's "maximum pressure" campaign.

The US economic sanctions and stepped-up military presence are designed to force Iran to renegotiate a landmark 2015 nuclear pact from which Trump pulled out last year.

Britain further outraged Iran by seizing one of its tankers—the Grace 1—on July 4 on suspicion of it carrying oil to Syria in violation of EU sanctions.

Iran vowed to retaliate and its Revolutionary Guards stormed and detained the UK-flagged Stena Impero and its 23 crew as they sailed through the Strait of Hormuz on July 20.

New British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab flatly rejected the idea of the two tankers being exchanged or simultaneously released in a bid to dial back the tensions.

"There is no quid pro quo," Raab told BBC radio.

"This is not about some kind of barter. This is about international law and the rules of the international legal system being upheld," he said.

"That is what we will insist on."

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani had hinted earlier that he was open to a tanker swap.

'Geopolitical Tussle'

Iran said on Sunday that its ship's seizure was also a violation of the 2015 nuclear pact that Britain co-signed and is trying to keep alive with EU allies.

Its remaining participants met in Vienna over the weekend for heated talks that also saw Iran lash out at Britain's proposal for European nations to lead a naval and air Gulf escort mission.

Britain's HMS Montrose frigate began helping UK-flagged tankers enter into and out of the Gulf last week.

Its naval presence near Iran grew to two with the arrival on Sunday of the HMS Duncan destroyer -- the most advanced warship Britain currently has.

The UK defence ministry said the two will conduct escorts together for the next month.

The Montrose will then go in for scheduled maintenance and be replaced by the HMS Kent frigate later this year.

"Freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz is vital not just to the UK, but also our international partners and allies," UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said.

Yet Britain's European force proposal is running up one already being prepared by the United States.

Both plans have strongly angered Tehran.

Iranian government spokesman Ali Rabiei said on Sunday that the proposed European fleet "carries a hostile message, is provocative and will increase tensions".

Britain's Raab said London was still insisting on a European force -- despite the potential conflict with Washington.

"This shouldn’t be some sort of geopolitical, EU versus US tussle," he said in the radio interview.

"It should be (about) what puts us in the best position with the widest group of international actors to uphold the rule of law."

He added that "it would be important for the European-led initiative to have US support to make it viable".

European nations have responded to Britain's proposal with caution.

Photo: Mizan

European Allies Spurn U.S. Effort to Protect Ships From Iran

By Nick Wadhams

Soaring tensions with Iran following attacks on tankers and drones prompted the Trump administration to call for a coalition of allies to protect ships passing through the Persian Gulf.

This week, U.S. partners including the U.K. and France essentially asked to be counted out.

Rather than signing on to the Trump administration’s “Operation Sentinel,” those countries want to establish a European maritime security initiative nearly identical to -- but separate from -- the American project. The split reflects just how uneasy key allies have become about the U.S. “maximum pressure” campaign toward Iran.

“The move to establish a European initiative is a clear signal that Europe is bending over backwards to dissociate itself from U.S. policy toward Iran,” said Jonathan Alterman, director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “Europe wants some real daylight.”

That thinking was echoed by French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, who said Europe wanted to take measures to clear the way for de-escalation of tensions with Iran.

“On the diplomatic front we want to create the conditions for inclusive regional talks on maritime security,” Le Drian said. “This is the opposite of the U.S. policy of maximum pressure.”

Trump administration officials have privately downplayed the dueling initiatives. Defense Secretary Mark Esper said Wednesday he sees the efforts as “complementary.” But there is little question the European move presents new evidence of just how battered the so-called “special relationship” between the U.S. and the U.K., as well as Europe more broadly, has become.

Trump’s withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear accord with Iran has sparked frantic European efforts to keep that agreement alive. The U.S. continues tightening sanctions designed to choke off Iran’s economy in a bid to force it to the negotiating table and agree to what Trump says would be a stronger accord. Many countries see that approach -- not Iranian actions -- as the original source of rising tensions between the Tehran government and the West.

The biggest flashpoint has been over tanker traffic in the Persian Gulf, a critical passageway for global oil supplies.

Tanker Seizures

In May and June, a series of attacks on tankers were blamed by the U.S. and some allies on Iran, a charge officials in Tehran denied. In June, Iran shot down an American drone it said was over its territorial waters, prompting Trump to consider military strikes before ultimately backing down.

Then, following the U.K.’s seizure of a tanker carrying Iranian oil near Gibraltar, Iran last week seized the British ship Stena Impero. The U.K. has subsequently threatened “serious consequences” if the ship and its crew are not released.

In response, the U.S. deployed additional forces to the region and announced Operation Sentinel.

A senior State Department official, speaking to reporters on condition of anonymity when the initiative was announced last month, said the operation isn’t military in nature, but aimed at keeping track of Iran by equipping ships with more cameras and other observation equipment. It’s focused on observing ships, not escorting them, the person said.

Wary of Conflict

When European leaders announced their own proposal this week, they suggested they were wary of joining an American-led effort that could drag them into conflict, or associate them with a policy they don’t support.

Then-U.K. Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt said Monday that the European maritime initiative was intended to reduce tensions while also sending a strong message to Iran to stop harassing ships in the region. Hunt was replaced on Wednesday by Dominic Raab after Prime Minister Boris Johnson took office.

Read More: Champagne and Magic Complete Johnson’s Rebranding as U.K. Leader

An administration official, asking not to be identified, said the U.S. would work with its partners and allies to safeguard freedom of navigation. Secretary of State Michael Pompeo, speaking on Fox News before the announcement, made clear the U.S. wanted European nations to play a larger role protecting vessels.

“The responsibility in the first instance falls to the United Kingdom to take care of their ships,” he said.

Coordinating Efforts

Officials on both sides of the Atlantic say there will almost certainly be information sharing and other coordination and that the two initiatives could be merged. Yet for some European politicians, the irony of the split is too much to ignore. The U.K., where Johnson has vowed to press ahead with a split from the European Union, is so circumspect about American policy toward Iran that it would rather partner with other European nations than the Trump administration.

“Apparently a government that is attempting to exit the European Union is not willing to undertake military action with the U.S. but actually with the European Union, because they’re more comfortable with it,” German lawmaker Rolf Muetzenich said Wednesday.

Analysts argue that the separate efforts will only fuel confusion in an already volatile region even if the two maritime efforts eventually become one. They say it reflects a fear—which the U.S. denies—that the Trump administration is prepared to further escalate tensions with Iran.

“U.S. allies are increasingly concerned about participating in joint operations under American command,” said Adam Mount, director of the Defense Posture Project at the Federation of American Scientists. “If American allies lose faith that the U.S. is committed to peaceful resolution of the Iran issue, they won’t want to get caught up in an operation with an objective they don’t support.”

Photo: CENTCOM

Iran Poses Loyalty Test for 'British Trump' Johnson

By Dmitry Zaks

Iran's seizure and continued detention of a UK-flagged tanker deals Boris Johnson an immediate loyalty test: Britain's new prime minister may have to choose between Persian Gulf escorts led by Europe or by the United States.

Which way Johnson leans could set the tone for a complex agenda that includes withdrawing from the European Union and striking a trade deal with the United States.

It could also maintain or break European efforts to keep alive the deal curbing Iran's nuclear ambitions that Washington pulled out of last year.

Some US commentators see this is a make-or-break moment for Europe's policy on Iran as a whole.

"Johnson could simply announce that the UK is joining America's maximum-pressure campaign and calls for a new (Iran) deal," the editorial board of The Wall Street Journal wrote.

"The rest of Europe would likely have no choice but to join its Anglophone partners—and finally present a united front."

"The rest of Europe would likely have no choice but to join its Anglophone partners—and finally present a united front."

Persian Gulf Mission

The idea of a European-led mission in the Persian Gulf is carried over from a meeting chaired by Johnson's predecessor Theresa May this week.

Britain has proposed that European partners join together in a "naval protection mission" to ensure commercial ships can safely navigate in the Gulf.

But such an operation would expose Britain's continued reliance on EU allies at the very same time that Johnson is determined to yank his country out of the bloc on October 31.

Johnson's other option is to sign Britain up to a US-led alliance outlined by Donald Trump's administration at NATO last month.

That decision could boost London's chances of reviving stalled efforts to strike a post-Brexit trade deal with Washington.

The downside risk is that British warships could be caught up in more aggressive US rules of engagement that London currently does not support.

Both Johnson and Trump played up their friendship during the British leadership race.

The US president cheered Johnson's election—referring to him as "Britain Trump"—and a source close to Johnson told The Daily Mail it was time to "reset" US-UK ties.

Yet that might doom British efforts to salvage the remnants of the 2015 deal with Iran that Trump pulled out of last year.

Tehran's ultra-conservative Resaalat newspaper published a cartoon Wednesday of Johnson as a British butler being patted on the head by Trump in the Oval Office.

"British Trump," the banner of the reformist Sazandegi said.

Winning Trump's Favor

Johnson is yet to publicly comment on last Friday's capture by masked Iranian soldiers of the Stena Impero oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz that leads into the Gulf.

He will be expected to do so now.

New Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said moments after his appointment Wednesday that it was "obviously a very sensitive issue" on which he was going to be "fully briefed".

Johnson's decision to push ahead with a European effort to secure the world's busiest oil shipping lane would still need to be coordinated with US forces in proximity to Iran.

Centre for European Reform foreign policy director Ian Bond said Johnson might actually win Trump's favour by shepherding European navies to the Gulf.

"Based on the fact that Trump is always complaining about how little the Europeans do for their own defence, he ought actually to think that it was a good thing that the Europeans were taking care of this," Bond told AFP.

"But whether that is, in fact, how (Trump) will react I find it hard to say."

'Post-Brexit Relevance'

Bond said Johnson's Brexit credentials might also be saved by the likely inclusion in this "coalition of the willing" of non-EU members such as Norway.

"This would be a practical implementation of what Theresa May was saying—that we are leaving the EU, we are not leaving Europe," Bond said.

But Chatham House's Middle East researcher Sanam Vakil advised Britain's new leader to "avoid the temptation to align completely with Washington on Iran".

"Rather than conflating the ships and the nuclear crisis, a direct UK-Iran bilateral negotiation on the tankers could provide both sides with a face-saving outcome," Vakil wrote.

"The UK could position itself as a bridge between the EU and US, and in the process boost its post-Brexit relevance," he said.

Photo: Wikicommons