European Losers in New Iranian Sanctions Game

US President Donald Trump's decision to pull the United States out of the 2015 nuclear accord with Iran and reimpose a raft of sanctions will hit European businesses working in Iran. Here is an overview of how firms stand to be affected when the sanctions kick in Monday:

Auto

French automakers Renault and PSA have taken different approaches publicly. PSA, behind the Peugeot, Citroen and Opel brands, said in June it was preparing to suspend activities in the Islamic republic, its chief foreign market by volume, noting those units account for "less than one percent of sales."

The group, which is Europe's second biggest carmaker, last year sold more than 445,000 vehicles in Iran, making the country one of its biggest markets outside France.

Renault says it intends to keep up activities in Iran albeit scaling them back. On July 16, the automaker announced a 10.3 percent drop in sales in Iran to 61,354 units.

Germany's Daimler was teaming up with two Iranian firms to assemble Mercedes-Benz trucks.

Volkswagen also said last year it would seek to resume sales in Iran for the first time in 17 years, yet the scale of its US activities could force the jettisoning of those plans. 

German firms' business with Iran was a modest USD 2.6 billion of 2016 exports rising to 3.0 billion last year. Italy is Iran's main European trading partner -- but Germany is still the bloc's biggest exporter to Tehran.

Aviation

Aviation saw beefy contracts drawn up following the nuclear accord as Iran targets modernization of an aging fleet.

Airbus booked deals for 100 jets although to date only three have been delivered after having US licenses bestowed upon them -- a necessity given some parts are US-made.

The potential loss of business in Iran would not weigh overly heavily on Airbus as overall orders on its books at the end of June stood at 7,168 planes. Franco-Italian planemaker ATR was fretting on the fate of 20 planes earmarked for Iranian delivery -- though Iran Air said Saturday five ATR-72600 aircraft would arrive Sunday, creeping under the deadline to add to eight already delivered.

Oil

French energy giant Total has moved away from a contract to develop an offshore gas field at South Pars in what would have been the first project of its kind since the 2015 nuclear deal.

Because Total's investment in the field had barely just begun, the company is avoiding incurring significant losses on a $5 billion project which Iran says Chinese group CNPC will now take up. 

After a 30 percent jump in 2016 in exports of Italian-made goods to Iran, Italian exports grew 12.5 percent last year to 1.7 billion euros, according to official data.

But energy giant Eni has held back on returning to Iran, preferring to wait on the impact of the latest sanctions.

Britain's BP, which started life as the Anglo-Persian Oil Company, has no presence in Iran. Although Anglo-Dutch giant Royal Dutch Shell signed a deal in 2016 to explore possible investments it does not currently have any operations on the ground. 

Railways and Shipbuilding

Italy stands to lose out in these sectors with national railway operator Ferrovie dello Stato Italiano having signed a deal to build a high-speed line linking Qom to Arak in northern Iran.

Shipmaker Fincantieri, engineering firm Maire Tecnimont and gas boiler maker Immergas has also signed a string of deals with Iran which now are also threatened.

Tourism

British Airways and German carrier Lufthansa face having to stop only recently resumed direct flights to Tehran or face losing Transatlantic business.

The dilemma applies to French hotel chain AccorHotels, which opened an establishment in Iran in 2015, as well as to Emirati group Rotana Hotels, which has designs on its own Iranian operation.

Spain's Melia Hotels International chain, which signed a 2016 deal to run a five star hotel in Iran, the Gran Melia Ghoo, says the establishment is under construction and that discussion of its future is "premature."

Industry

Siemens returned to Iran in 2016 seeking to sell gas turbines and generators for electricity stations and has won a contract to sell compressors for a natural gas processor.

"The mega contracts hoped for when sanctions were lifted were never realized," KPMG advisor Kaveh Taghizadeh was recently quoted as saying in Stern magazine.

"Siemens will continue to ensure it remains in strict compliance with relevant international export control restrictions and all other applicable laws and regulations, including US secondary sanctions," Siemens spokesman Yashar Azad told AFP.

He added Siemens "will take appropriate actions to align its business with the changing multilateral framework regarding Iran." French industrial gas group Air Liquide says it will "cease all commercial activity" in the country although a spokesperson says the firm has "no investments" there.

Pharmaceuticals

Pharmaceutical giant Sanofi, in Iran for over a decade, remains operating "in full compliance with international regulations", a spokesman said, while adding "it is still too early to comment on the potential impact" of sanctions.

Banks

Germany's big banks, Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank, stayed clear of Iran after the US fined them hugely in 2015 for violating previous sanctions. Regional banks Helaba and DZ Bank pulled out of Iran after the US announced it was reimposing sanctions.

Photo Credit: Scania

Iran Sanctions Shadow Falls on Smaller German Banks

Germany's biggest lenders have shied away from business with Iran after past penalties for breaching US sanctions, but smaller banks have leapt on opportunities afforded by the nuclear deal rejected by Donald Trump.

There are just months to go until a November deadline issued by Washington after the US president abandoned a hard-fought agreement that loosened business restrictions on the Islamic Republic in exchange for Tehran giving up its pursuit of nuclear weapons.

But some firms plan to press on in their dealings with Iran despite the looming threat of penalties.

"We will continue to serve our clients," for now, said Patrizia Melfi, a director at the "international competence centre" (KCI) founded by six cooperative savings banks in the small town of Tuttlingen in southwest Germany.

The centre, which supports companies operating in sensitive markets like Iran or Sudan, has seen demand "rising sharply in the last few years, from firms listed on the Dax (Germany's index of blue-chip firms), from all over Germany and from Switzerland," she added.

German exports to Iran have grown since the nuclear deal was signed in 2015, adding 15.5 percent last year to reach almost EUR 2.6 billion (USD 3.0 billion) after 22-percent growth in 2016.

Such figures remain vanishingly small compared with Germany's 111.5 billion euros in exports to the US—its top customer.

Nevertheless, the KCI will "wait and see what the sanctions look like" before turning away from Iran, Melfi said.

Walking on Eggshells

Already, firms dealing with Tehran must take great care not to fall foul of US restrictions.

Transactions are carried out in euros, and the KCI does not deal with businesses that have American citizens or green card resident holders on their boards.

What's more, products sold to Iran cannot contain more than 10 percent of parts manufactured in the US.

One of the most important inputs for the business is "courage among our managers" given the high risks involved, Melfi said.

Germany's two biggest banks, Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank, avoid Iran completely after being slapped with harsh fines in 2015 over their dealings there, with Deutsche alone paying USD 258 million in penalties.

DZ Bank, which operates as a central bank for more than 1,000 local co-op lenders, is withdrawing completely from payment services there, a spokesman told AFP.

That left KCI to seek out the German branch of Iranian state-owned bank Melli in Hamburg.

Even that linkage could break if Iran's biggest business bank appears on a US list of barred businesses as it has before.

Meanwhile, among Germany's roughly 390 Sparkasse savings banks, business with the regime is mostly limited to producing documents linked to export contracts.

"We will be looking even more closely at those" in the future, a person familiar with the trade told AFP.

Elsewhere in the German economy, the European-Iranian Trade Bank (EIH) founded in 1971 is another conduit to Tehran.

Also based in Hamburg, it for now remains "fully available to you with our products and services", the bank assures clients on its website, although "business policy decisions by European banks may result in short term or medium term restrictions on payments".

'Effectively Protected' 

Neither does the Bundesbank (German central bank) believe that much has so far changed for business with Iran.

"Only the European Union's sanctions regime will be decisive", if and when it is changed, the institution told AFP.

Any payment involving an Iranian party would have to be approved by the Bundesbank if things return to their pre-January 2016 state.

German banking lobby group Kreditwirtschaft has called on Berlin and other EU nations to clarify their stance—and to make sure banks and their clients are "effectively protected against possible American sanctions."

KCI's Melfi said time is running out for EU governments to act.

"Many firms just want to stop anything with Iran, since they can't calculate the risk of staying," she noted.

On Friday for the first time since the Iran nuclear deal came into force in 2015, China, Russia, France, Britain and Germany gathered in Vienna—at Iran's request—without the United States, to discuss how to save the agreement.

Photo Credit: DZ Bank