Rouhani Warns Europe Over Mideast Role as Ties Sour on 2015 Deal

By Golnar Motevalli

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani warned European countries that their soldiers in the Middle East could be exposed to greater danger in the future if instability fueled by the presence of their American counterparts continues.

Europe’s ties to Iran risk becoming collateral damage in the spreading confrontation between Tehran and Washington. Germany, France and the U.K. on Tuesday started formal action against the Islamic Republic for breaching restrictions on uranium enrichment set out in the 2015 nuclear accord, which has been crumbling since the U.S. withdrew 20 months ago and reimposed sanctions on Iran.

Rouhani said on Wednesday that Iran wanted U.S. forces to exit the region “sensibly” to improve stability, before he extended his caution to Europe.

“Stop making so many mistakes and return,” he said in a cabinet meeting broadcast live on TV. “Today U.S. soldiers are in danger, tomorrow European soldiers may also be in danger.”

The European powers said their move to trigger the nuclear deal’s dispute mechanism aims to turn up the pressure on Iran with the ultimate goal of salvaging the multiparty agreement. But the intervention risks propelling the sides into greater conflict as Tehran struggles to deal with fallout from the U.S. killing on Jan. 3 of its top general, Iran’s retaliatory missile salvos and international outrage over the downing of a Ukrainian jetliner by on-edge Iranian security forces.

Iranians have been outraged by the news that their own armed forces -- often boastful of their prowess -- had not only shot down a passenger plane but had concealed the fact from the public for three days. Thousands protested against the leadership in cities nationwide.

The U.K. ambassador to Iran, Rob Macaire, was briefly arrested after attending a vigil for the victims that later morphed into an anti-regime protest. He has left the country to return to London for a routine visit that’s not a response to his detention, a person familiar with the matter said.

While accepting responsibility for bringing down the plane and calling on the military to fully explain its actions, Rouhani and other Iranian leaders have blamed the U.S. for creating the conditions that led to it, demanding that American forces end a decades-long presence in the region.

That has been taken up in neighboring Iraq, where Shiite lawmakers with ties to Tehran and the outgoing prime minister called for talks on a mechanism to advance the U.S. departure, but have been rebuffed by Washington.

A commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, on Wednesday said officials withheld informing the public that Iranian missiles had hit the jet “in the interests of national security.” Separately, the military said it’s investigating whether radar interference had a role in the debacle.

The U.S. and Iran have both stepped back from further military conflict as allies in Europe and the Gulf warned over the potentially catastrophic consequences of a broader war.

But the U.S. imposed new sanctions last week and called on European signatories to the nuclear deal to dump the accord and insist on Iran negotiating a new treaty that extends enrichment caps intended to prevent it developing a nuclear weapon.

U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Tuesday threw his weight behind a new “Trump deal” even as his government has stood by its European allies in seeking to keep the current version alive.

Rouhani dismissed Johnson’s idea and urged European countries to reverse their decision to activate the dispute mechanism.

“Mr. Johnson, I don’t know what he’s thinking when he says that instead of the nuclear deal we should implement a Trump plan. Other than violate international contracts, what else has Trump done?” Rouhani said.

Photo: IRNA

UK PM Says 'Trump Deal' Could Replace Iran Nuclear Pact

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Tuesday he would be willing to work on a "Trump deal" to replace an international accord designed to stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons.

"If we are going to get rid of it then we need a replacement," Johnson said of the 2015 nuclear deal that Britain and other European powers have been trying to salvage since President Donald Trump pulled the United States out in 2018.

Britain, France and Germany announced on Tuesday they were launching a dispute mechanism under the deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), because Iran was not meeting its commitments.

The EU's diplomatic chief on Tuesday urged all parties to the Iran nuclear accord to save it, saying escalating tensions made the deal "more important than ever."

Josep Borrell, the EU's foreign affairs high representative, spoke after Britain, France and Germany formally triggered a dispute mechanism under the 2015 accord, after Iran announced its fifth major step back from compliance.

The deal gave Iran sanctions relief in return for curbs on its nuclear program.

Borrell, who will oversee the dispute mechanism which could ultimately lead to reimposition of UN sanctions, said the aim of the process was to save the deal, not sink it.

"The dispute resolution mechanism requires intensive efforts in good faith by all. As the coordinator, I expect all JCPOA participants to approach this process in that spirit," he said, using an acronym for the deal's formal title.

"In light of the ongoing dangerous escalations in the Middle East, the preservation of the JCPOA is now more important than ever," he said.

In launching the process, Britain, France and Germany accused Tehran of repeated violations of the deal but insisted they remained committed to it.

Johnson said a "Trump deal" would be "a great way forward", but did not specify the details of the proposal. 

His idea stands at odds with Tuesday's statement from Britain, France and Germany, which expressed "determination to work with all participants to preserve" the deal.

"From the American perspective it's a flawed agreement, it expires, plus it was negotiated by (former) President Obama," Johnson said.

"President Trump is a great deal-maker—by his own account and many others. Let's work together to replace the JCPOA and get the Trump deal instead."

Tehran has wound down its compliance since the American withdrawal and last week, British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said the non-compliance had become "so acute" that European powers were looking at taking action.

He said London wanted to see Iran "come back to full compliance" and said triggering the dispute resolution mechanism was one option.

The mechanism could ultimately lead to the UN Security Council reimposing sanctions on Iran.

Photo; IRNA

European Leaders Say Iran Behind Saudi Attack, Urge Dialogue

The leaders of France, Germany and Britain on Monday agreed that Iran carried out this month's attack on Saudi Arabian oil infrastructure and called on Tehran to choose dialogue over further "provocation."

French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson backed the conclusion of the United States on the blasts at the Abqaiq and Khurais facilities.

"It is clear for us that Iran bears responsibility for this attack. There is no other explanation," they said in a joint statement released by France after meeting on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.

But the three countries—which remain party to a nuclear deal with Iran from which President Donald Trump withdrew the United States—said the solution was diplomacy

"We call on Iran to commit to such a dialogue and to avoid any new provocation and escalation," they said.

"The attacks also highlight the need for a de-escalation in the region, for sustained diplomatic efforts and engagement with all sides."

The three nations said that they remained committed to the 2015 agreement with Iran that was negotiated under former president Barack Obama.

They called on Iran to come back into strict compliance.

Iran has taken several steps including installing centrifuges that are more advanced than allowed as a way to voice anger at not receiving sanctions relief promised under the deal.

Photo: IRNA

Boris Johnson Says It’s Time to Make a New Nuclear Deal With Iran

By Robert Hutton and Gregory Viscusi

U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said it’s time to strike a new nuclear deal with Iran, breaking ranks with European allies France and Germany, which are still trying to preserve the 2015 agreement President Donald Trump withdrew from last year.

“Whatever your objections to the old nuclear deal with Iran, it’s time now to move forward and do a new deal,” Johnson told Sky News on Monday in New York, where he’s attending the United Nations General Assembly.

Johnson also suggested it’s “plainly” clear that Iran was responsible for attacks this month on key oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, pulling into line with the Trump administration’s assessment. “How do we respond to what the Iranians plainly did?” Johnson said. “What the U.K. is doing is trying to bring people together and de-escalate tensions.”

Iran has denied being involved in the attacks on two Saudi Aramco facilities, which were quickly claimed by Tehran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen who have been fighting a Saudi-led coalition for four years.

After Trump quit the nuclear deal with Iran, the other nations participating in it -- the U.K., Germany, France, Russia and China -- vowed to stand by the accord. But they have failed so far to find a way to sidestep increasingly tough U.S. economic sanctions on the Islamic Republic, and Iran has begun to breach the agreement’s limits on its nuclear program.

Trump has vowed to seek a more stringent accord that would bar Iran permanently from the capability to develop nuclear weapons while also curbing its ballistic missile program and its support for groups, such as Hezbollah, that the U.S. considers terrorists.

Asked about Johnson’s comments, Trump told reporters, “I respect Boris a lot and I’m not at all surprised he was the first one to come out and see that.” He said Johnson is “a man who, No. 1, he’s a friend of mine, and No. 2, he’s very smart, very tough.”

Macron’s Stance

French President Emmanuel Macron said earlier Monday that “the oil attacks change the situation but France remains just as determined.”

He told reporters at the UN that he’s continuing to work on calming tension between Iran and the U.S. even as he inched closer to saying Iran may have been behind the attacks on the Saudi oil facilities.

“There are indications that a state actor may have been involved, given the sophistication,” Macron said, although he stopped short of saying who was responsible until Saudi Arabia completed its investigation.

Macron said he had a quick talk with Trump on Monday morning on the sidelines of a UN General Assembly meeting about climate, and will see him again Tuesday, though the White House hasn’t confirmed any meeting with the French president. Macron said he would meet Iranian President Hassan Rouhani later Monday, a session confirmed by Iranian officials.

“You know the work France has done the past months to make propositions to seek a de-escalation,” Macron said. “We need to get all the partners to sit around a table.” He said the subjects that needed to be discussed are maintaining 2015 accord, what happens after the accord expires, Iran’s ballistic missile program and its involvement in regional crises such as Syria and Yemen.

Iran Says It Expects Tanker Held by U.K. to Be Released Soon

By Arsalan Shahla

Iran expects an oil tanker seized by the U.K. in the Strait of Gibraltar in July will be released soon, the semi-official Fars News agency reported Tuesday, a move that could help to ease concerns about the safety of shipping routes in the Middle East.

“Official and unofficial documents have been exchanged to resolve the matter and we hope the problem will be dealt with in the very near future,” Fars cited Jalil Eslami, deputy for maritime affairs at Iran’s Ports and Maritime Organization, as saying. The future of a U.K.-flagged tanker that Iran seized later in the Persian Gulf depends on “the necessary judicial processes,” Eslami added.

Iran’s Grace 1 tanker was seized by the Royal Navy on suspicion it was sending crude oil to Syria in violation of European Union sanctions. Tehran denied breaking sanctions and two weeks later impounded the U.K.-flagged Stena Impero near the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important chokepoint for oil.

Gibraltar’s Supreme Court is scheduled to hold its next hearing on the vessel on Thursday, according to the official Gibraltar news service in Spain. The current detention order for the ship expires late on Saturday, local media reported. A spokesperson for the U.K. Foreign Office said that the “ongoing investigation” into the Grace 1 was a matter for Gibraltar authorities.

The tanker seizures and other suspected Iranian operations against shipping in the Persian Gulf region have inflamed a crisis between Iran and the West triggered by the Trump administration’s decision to quit the multiparty nuclear deal with Iran a year ago and renew crippling economic sanctions. Iran has responded by abandoning some restrictions on uranium enrichment imposed by the 2015 accord.

The frictions on the seas have led the U.S. and U.K. to mount a joint mission to protect commercial shipping lanes in the Middle East. Reports of Israeli involvement in that mission have drawn fire from Tehran, and on Tuesday, the commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corp’s naval forces warned against “any illegal presence in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz, especially Israel’s.”

“We in the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps are in charge of providing security for the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf, and there is no need for strangers,” Rear Admiral Alireza Tangsiri said, according to the semi-official Iranian Students’ News Agency.

Last week, Israel’s Ynet website reported that Israel is providing intelligence and other, unspecified assistance to U.S.-led efforts to protect Persian Gulf shipping routes. It cited Foreign Minister Israel Katz’s remarks to parliament’s foreign affairs and defense committee.

Israel considers Iran to be its most formidable enemy, due to its nuclear work, ballistic missile program and support for anti-Israel militant groups in the Middle East. Iranian officials have also referred multiple times to Israel’s annihilation. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu lobbied hard against the nuclear deal, and pressed President Donald Trump to abandon it.

Israel has been striking Iranian targets in Syria over the past few years in an effort to limit the Islamic Republic’s presence in its immediate neighborhood, and according to recent reports, has expanded those operations to hit Iranian-backed militias in Iraq.

Photo: Fleet Mon

Bolton to Press Britain's Johnson on Iran

US National Security Advisor John Bolton was Monday to sound out British Prime Minister Boris Johnson on global disputes that include an escalating Gulf standoff with Iran.

The hawkish White House aide is the most senior US official to meet Johnson since he succeeded Theresa May as UK government leader last month.

A spokesman for Johnson said the two would talk about "a range of security issues, including Iran".

The meeting comes with US President Donald Trump's administration pursuing a "maximum pressure" campaign designed to force the Islamic republic to limit nuclear and military activities.

Washington also wants its close European ally to drop—or at the very least severely restrict—plans to use 5G technology made by China's Huawei when it rolls out the next-generation data network.

US media reports said Washington was not expecting a decision from London on either issue during Bolton's two-day visit.

The Downing Street spokesman said London's position on both Iran and Huawei "remains the same.”

Uncertain Future

Bolton's trip comes with Britain in political crisis and the pound straddling multi-year lows as deadline approaches for the UK to leave the EU after more than 40 years.

Johnson has vowed to meet the twice-delayed Brexit date—now October 31—even if it means leaving without a proper plan to regulate trade and other ties.

Senior UK economic officials and big industries warn that this "no-deal Brexit" option could create border chaos and set off global financial tremors in the short term.

The EU is refusing to re-open negotiations on the deal the bloc's 27 leaders signed last year with May. Johnson and his supporters call the existing agreement unfair.

But a clean break with the EU would allow the UK to immediately launch negotiations on a free trade agreement with the United States.

The US president openly rooted for Johnson during his campaign for May's job following her resignation over the Brexit impasse.

He branded Johnson as Britain's Trump and said the sides were on the verge of making a breakthrough in ties.

Britain and its European allies have irritated Trump's team by trying to save a landmark nuclear agreement with Iran which Washington pulled out of last year.

Britain last week decided to join forces with the US to protect merchant vessels in the Gulf.

It marked a departure in policy for Johnson following May's attempts to form a European-led group.

Britain's decision on Huawei—a private firm that Washington says is obliged to spy for the Chinese government—has been repeatedly delayed due to mixed signals from Trump about his own administration's next steps.

Johnson's spokesman said the UK government was "still assessing the impact" of Trump's decision in May to effectively ban Huawei from trading with US firms.

Photo: Wikicommons

Trump Sees Chance With Boris Johnson to Lure UK on Iran, Huawei

By David Wainer

As Boris Johnson hurtles toward a no-deal Brexit that could leave the U.K. diplomatically adrift and economically vulnerable, President Donald Trump is looking to seize an opportunity to lure the country away from Europe on some of his top foreign policy priorities: Iran and Huawei.

Yet with Johnson focused on negotiating a breakup with the European Union—and perhaps a snap election at home—the White House may have to be patient in its hopes that the U.K.’s leadership change will bring closer alignment on issues including sanctioning Iran’s nuclear program and blocking Huawei Technologies Co. equipment from new 5G mobile networks.

Trump is pressing his case regardless. He and Johnson spoke by phone last week about “areas of further cooperation,” including trade, 5G technology and global security, according to a White House statement. With Johnson—a “good man” Trump has long praised for wanting to leave the EU—now at 10 Downing Street, the U.S. sees Johnson’s need for an eventual bilateral trade deal with America as leverage to peel Britain away from Europe on key issues.

In a first bid to serve as a bridge between the White House and European allies, the U.K. announced on Monday that it will lead “an international mission to restore safe passage” in the Persian Gulf, working with partners including the U.S. Navy. The move offers a face-saving opportunity for countries that spurned a U.S.-led initiative because they blame Trump for quitting the 2015 nuclear accord with Iran.

A senior White House official said the U.S. expects cooperation will grow more robust with the new government, as the two countries work together extensively on security issues including North Korea. Secretary of State Michael Pompeo predicted the nations that long have boasted of their “special relationship” will grow even closer.

“I think we’ll find that there’s a very good working relationship there,” Pompeo said in a Bloomberg TV interview last month. “When the prime minister gets his feet on the ground, I’m looking forward to having a chance to chat with him and his foreign secretary so that we can deliver on behalf of these two important democracies.”

New Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab will be in Washington this week, and his language will be mined for clues on where the U.K. is headed.

Working in the U.S.’s favor is Johnson’s need to seal a trade deal with Washington after the U.K.’s departure from the EU, expected Oct. 31. To help smooth that process, Johnson could take more symbolic steps to spurn Europe and sidle up to Trump.

Key Question: Iran

Johnson’s proposal on Gulf maritime security was welcomed by the U.S. But that doesn’t mean he’s ready to follow Trump in quitting the multinational nuclear agreement the American president has called the “worst deal ever.” In announcing the maritime mission, Raab, the foreign minister, said, “We remain committed to working with Iran and our international partners to de-escalate the situation and maintain the nuclear deal.”

Johnson has repeatedly signaled that he’s a strong supporter of the nuclear deal, which the U.K. and other participating nations have struggled to maintain in the face of renewed U.S. sanctions against Iran. As British foreign minister in 2018, when Trump pulled out of the agreement, Johnson said talks with Tehran culminating in a new accord were difficult to imagine.

“One of the big questions is whether he will break with European unity on Iran,” said Richard Nephew, a Columbia University scholar who was part of the U.S. team that negotiated the nuclear accord. “He needs Trump on his side, at the very least promising a favorable trade deal, as he takes the U.K. down the Brexit route.”

Germany’s Worries

In Germany, there’s concern that Johnson and Trump will try to build a new version of the “special relationship,” according to a coalition official in Berlin.

The Germans see Johnson’s intention to seek a trade deal with the U.S. at a time when the EU is already negotiating such a pact as further evidence of a breach, said the official, who asked not to identified discussing Britain’s political direction. French President Emmanuel Macron’s aides also routinely say that they see the British as potential trouble-makers on trade.

Despite receiving invitations, Johnson hasn’t traveled to the major European capitals. By contrast, his predecessor went to Berlin within days of coming to power.

In the most telling example of friction between London and its European partners, the U.K. undercut a French-led initiative to find a common candidate to lead the International Monetary Fund. Mere hours before EU governments were to begin voting on a candidate, the U.K. suddenly objected to the process and said it wouldn’t take part in offering a potential nominee or in the voting, according to a source familiar with the interaction.

All this is fertile ground for the White House to act to pull the U.K. away, and the promise of a free-trade deal is the biggest carrot of all for a prime minister determined to bring about Brexit and deliver on its promised benefits. That’s why Johnson’s meeting with Trump at the Group of Seven summit in France this month will be the most-watched bilateral of them all for the Europeans.

Picking an Envoy

Johnson will also have a chance to appoint a new ambassador to Washington because Kim Darroch abruptly resigned last month after the leak of internal messages in which he criticized the Trump administration as “clumsy and inept.”

Johnson’s failure to defend Darroch in a televised campaign debate brought criticism from a Foreign Office official who said he’d thrown the ambassador “under a bus.”

Trump had failed to win British support on a number of issues under former Prime Minister Theresa May. A U.K. government official said the U.S. relationship can only improve in light of May’s lack of rapport with Trump. The official predicted a strengthening of relations, drawing on new opportunities on trade and other issues, but not a total reset of ties.

Even under Johnson, breaking the U.K. away from the European Union on foreign policy will be tough, according to three senior European diplomats with knowledge of the new British government. Any moves to cozy up to Trump may be more symbolic than substantive, particularly because Johnson has to worry about maintaining a single-seat majority in the House of Commons.

‘Political Opportunists’

“What Trump and Johnson have in common is they are political opportunists,” said Charles Kupchan, former senior director for European Affairs at the National Security Council in the Obama administration. “They believe in America First, Britain First. They’re out for themselves and I don’t think either Trump or Johnson will be making sacrifices to help each other.”

And while the U.K. is still reviewing its position on Huawei, which the U.S. sees as a stalking horse for Chinese spying and wants banned from allied nations, all four U.K. carriers are already building their 5G networks using equipment from Huawei. BT Group Plc’s EE and Vodafone Group Plc have even gone live with their Huawei-supported 5G. Delaying or freezing that deployment would be an additional hit to an increasingly fragile British economy.

Showman Politics

Trump may have to be patient, knowing the U.K. leader has other priorities. Unlike May, who Trump publicly criticized on multiple occasions, the president sees in Johnson’s rise a vindication of his own style of showman politics.

“Trump from the get-go has been a supporter of getting on with Brexit and he likes populist and right-wing leaders, wherever they may be,” said Kupchan, the former Obama administration official who’s now a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.

But unlike Trump, Johnson has less room for error on the world stage and is therefore expected to be less volatile. While Trump can insult allies and foes, tear up agreements, and still command any leader’s attention, the U.K. is a diminishing power, said Andreas Krieg, who teaches defense studies at King’s College London.

“He talks about building a Global Britain but he know there’s no capacity to build a global power,” said Krieg. “He understands Britain is not America.”

Photo: Wikicommons

European Allies Spurn U.S. Effort to Protect Ships From Iran

By Nick Wadhams

Soaring tensions with Iran following attacks on tankers and drones prompted the Trump administration to call for a coalition of allies to protect ships passing through the Persian Gulf.

This week, U.S. partners including the U.K. and France essentially asked to be counted out.

Rather than signing on to the Trump administration’s “Operation Sentinel,” those countries want to establish a European maritime security initiative nearly identical to -- but separate from -- the American project. The split reflects just how uneasy key allies have become about the U.S. “maximum pressure” campaign toward Iran.

“The move to establish a European initiative is a clear signal that Europe is bending over backwards to dissociate itself from U.S. policy toward Iran,” said Jonathan Alterman, director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “Europe wants some real daylight.”

That thinking was echoed by French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, who said Europe wanted to take measures to clear the way for de-escalation of tensions with Iran.

“On the diplomatic front we want to create the conditions for inclusive regional talks on maritime security,” Le Drian said. “This is the opposite of the U.S. policy of maximum pressure.”

Trump administration officials have privately downplayed the dueling initiatives. Defense Secretary Mark Esper said Wednesday he sees the efforts as “complementary.” But there is little question the European move presents new evidence of just how battered the so-called “special relationship” between the U.S. and the U.K., as well as Europe more broadly, has become.

Trump’s withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear accord with Iran has sparked frantic European efforts to keep that agreement alive. The U.S. continues tightening sanctions designed to choke off Iran’s economy in a bid to force it to the negotiating table and agree to what Trump says would be a stronger accord. Many countries see that approach -- not Iranian actions -- as the original source of rising tensions between the Tehran government and the West.

The biggest flashpoint has been over tanker traffic in the Persian Gulf, a critical passageway for global oil supplies.

Tanker Seizures

In May and June, a series of attacks on tankers were blamed by the U.S. and some allies on Iran, a charge officials in Tehran denied. In June, Iran shot down an American drone it said was over its territorial waters, prompting Trump to consider military strikes before ultimately backing down.

Then, following the U.K.’s seizure of a tanker carrying Iranian oil near Gibraltar, Iran last week seized the British ship Stena Impero. The U.K. has subsequently threatened “serious consequences” if the ship and its crew are not released.

In response, the U.S. deployed additional forces to the region and announced Operation Sentinel.

A senior State Department official, speaking to reporters on condition of anonymity when the initiative was announced last month, said the operation isn’t military in nature, but aimed at keeping track of Iran by equipping ships with more cameras and other observation equipment. It’s focused on observing ships, not escorting them, the person said.

Wary of Conflict

When European leaders announced their own proposal this week, they suggested they were wary of joining an American-led effort that could drag them into conflict, or associate them with a policy they don’t support.

Then-U.K. Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt said Monday that the European maritime initiative was intended to reduce tensions while also sending a strong message to Iran to stop harassing ships in the region. Hunt was replaced on Wednesday by Dominic Raab after Prime Minister Boris Johnson took office.

Read More: Champagne and Magic Complete Johnson’s Rebranding as U.K. Leader

An administration official, asking not to be identified, said the U.S. would work with its partners and allies to safeguard freedom of navigation. Secretary of State Michael Pompeo, speaking on Fox News before the announcement, made clear the U.S. wanted European nations to play a larger role protecting vessels.

“The responsibility in the first instance falls to the United Kingdom to take care of their ships,” he said.

Coordinating Efforts

Officials on both sides of the Atlantic say there will almost certainly be information sharing and other coordination and that the two initiatives could be merged. Yet for some European politicians, the irony of the split is too much to ignore. The U.K., where Johnson has vowed to press ahead with a split from the European Union, is so circumspect about American policy toward Iran that it would rather partner with other European nations than the Trump administration.

“Apparently a government that is attempting to exit the European Union is not willing to undertake military action with the U.S. but actually with the European Union, because they’re more comfortable with it,” German lawmaker Rolf Muetzenich said Wednesday.

Analysts argue that the separate efforts will only fuel confusion in an already volatile region even if the two maritime efforts eventually become one. They say it reflects a fear—which the U.S. denies—that the Trump administration is prepared to further escalate tensions with Iran.

“U.S. allies are increasingly concerned about participating in joint operations under American command,” said Adam Mount, director of the Defense Posture Project at the Federation of American Scientists. “If American allies lose faith that the U.S. is committed to peaceful resolution of the Iran issue, they won’t want to get caught up in an operation with an objective they don’t support.”

Photo: CENTCOM

Iran Poses Loyalty Test for 'British Trump' Johnson

By Dmitry Zaks

Iran's seizure and continued detention of a UK-flagged tanker deals Boris Johnson an immediate loyalty test: Britain's new prime minister may have to choose between Persian Gulf escorts led by Europe or by the United States.

Which way Johnson leans could set the tone for a complex agenda that includes withdrawing from the European Union and striking a trade deal with the United States.

It could also maintain or break European efforts to keep alive the deal curbing Iran's nuclear ambitions that Washington pulled out of last year.

Some US commentators see this is a make-or-break moment for Europe's policy on Iran as a whole.

"Johnson could simply announce that the UK is joining America's maximum-pressure campaign and calls for a new (Iran) deal," the editorial board of The Wall Street Journal wrote.

"The rest of Europe would likely have no choice but to join its Anglophone partners—and finally present a united front."

"The rest of Europe would likely have no choice but to join its Anglophone partners—and finally present a united front."

Persian Gulf Mission

The idea of a European-led mission in the Persian Gulf is carried over from a meeting chaired by Johnson's predecessor Theresa May this week.

Britain has proposed that European partners join together in a "naval protection mission" to ensure commercial ships can safely navigate in the Gulf.

But such an operation would expose Britain's continued reliance on EU allies at the very same time that Johnson is determined to yank his country out of the bloc on October 31.

Johnson's other option is to sign Britain up to a US-led alliance outlined by Donald Trump's administration at NATO last month.

That decision could boost London's chances of reviving stalled efforts to strike a post-Brexit trade deal with Washington.

The downside risk is that British warships could be caught up in more aggressive US rules of engagement that London currently does not support.

Both Johnson and Trump played up their friendship during the British leadership race.

The US president cheered Johnson's election—referring to him as "Britain Trump"—and a source close to Johnson told The Daily Mail it was time to "reset" US-UK ties.

Yet that might doom British efforts to salvage the remnants of the 2015 deal with Iran that Trump pulled out of last year.

Tehran's ultra-conservative Resaalat newspaper published a cartoon Wednesday of Johnson as a British butler being patted on the head by Trump in the Oval Office.

"British Trump," the banner of the reformist Sazandegi said.

Winning Trump's Favor

Johnson is yet to publicly comment on last Friday's capture by masked Iranian soldiers of the Stena Impero oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz that leads into the Gulf.

He will be expected to do so now.

New Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said moments after his appointment Wednesday that it was "obviously a very sensitive issue" on which he was going to be "fully briefed".

Johnson's decision to push ahead with a European effort to secure the world's busiest oil shipping lane would still need to be coordinated with US forces in proximity to Iran.

Centre for European Reform foreign policy director Ian Bond said Johnson might actually win Trump's favour by shepherding European navies to the Gulf.

"Based on the fact that Trump is always complaining about how little the Europeans do for their own defence, he ought actually to think that it was a good thing that the Europeans were taking care of this," Bond told AFP.

"But whether that is, in fact, how (Trump) will react I find it hard to say."

'Post-Brexit Relevance'

Bond said Johnson's Brexit credentials might also be saved by the likely inclusion in this "coalition of the willing" of non-EU members such as Norway.

"This would be a practical implementation of what Theresa May was saying—that we are leaving the EU, we are not leaving Europe," Bond said.

But Chatham House's Middle East researcher Sanam Vakil advised Britain's new leader to "avoid the temptation to align completely with Washington on Iran".

"Rather than conflating the ships and the nuclear crisis, a direct UK-Iran bilateral negotiation on the tankers could provide both sides with a face-saving outcome," Vakil wrote.

"The UK could position itself as a bridge between the EU and US, and in the process boost its post-Brexit relevance," he said.

Photo: Wikicommons

France, Germany, Britain Formally Demand Exemptions from US Iran Sanctions

France, Britain, Germany and the EU on Wednesday sent the United States a joint official request for their companies to be exempt from punitive measures resulting from fresh US sanctions on Iran.

"As allies, we expect that the United States will refrain from taking action to harm Europe's security interests," said the letter to US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

French Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire said the three countries and the EU were asking the US "to exempt European businesses doing legitimate trade in Iran from all extraterritorial American sanctions."

"Those businesses must be able to pursue their activities," he wrote on Twitter.

📝 We ask the American authorities, in a letter signed with Germany, the UK and @eu_eeas to exempt European businesses doing legitimate trade in Iran from all extraterritorial American sanctions. Those businesses must be able to pursue their activities. pic.twitter.com/mDZP42gb0b

— Bruno Le Maire (@BrunoLeMaire) June 6, 2018

The plea comes as European leaders scramble to save the hard-fought deal signed between Iran and world powers in 2015 under which Tehran agreed to limits on its nuclear capacities in exchange for relief from crippling economic sanctions.

US President Donald Trump announced he was abandoning the deal last month—which will mean new sanctions on the Islamic republic and punitive measures
for those who trade with it.

Analysts say European firms which have rushed to invest in Iran after the lifting of sanctions over the past three years have the most to lose from the renewed sanctions.

Several major companies including France's Total and the Netherlands' Maersk have already said it will be impossible to stay in Iran once the sanctions are fully reimposed over the next six months, unless they receive explicit exemptions from Washington. 

French automaker PSA said Monday that it would pull out of two joint ventures to sell its cars in Iran to avoid the risk of punishing fines.

Photo Credit: Wikimedia