Trump Offensive Leaves Iran’s Hardliners Ascendant as Poll Nears

By Golnar Motevalli and Arsalan Shahla

After a dozen years as speaker of Iran’s parliament, half of them allied with President Hassan Rouhani as he reached out to the West, Ali Larijani is bowing out.

It’s been a tumultuous reign, book-ended by devastating U.S. sanction regimes. But his decision not to contest February 21 national assembly elections is more than a hard-earned career change. Those who backed Rouhani when Iran negotiated the 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, including the influential 62-year-old Larijani, stand fatally weakened as the accord crumbles under President Donald Trump’s economic offensive and Tehran’s tit-for-tat reprisals.

The U.S. “maximum pressure” campaign weakened the position of Iran’s reformists, according to one of their number, Jalal Mirzaei.

“Things were going well,” Mirzaei said in Vienna this month as he attended an OPEC meeting. Then “Mr. Trump became president.”

As a result, more than six years after Iranians opted for change under Rouhani, arch-conservatives are ascendant, dominating the field of favored ballot candidates. The consequences for Iran and regional security are substantial.

On the Backfoot

“We’re in a situation where the more reasonable voices calling for a much more open Iran which was pro-diplomacy are fast losing ground to hardliners,” said Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy head of the Middle East and North Africa program at the European Council of Foreign Relations.

The Trump administration sought to weaken Iran, which he blamed for stirring regional strife and exporting extremism, in part by alienating Iranians from their leaders. His administration pointed to last month’s protests and a deadly security crackdown as evidence the sanctions strategy is working.

To further its aims, the U.S. might welcome power consolidated in the hands of ultra-conservatives, said Geranmayeh, if that undermines European resolve to maintain ties with Iran.

But for many observers, the electoral realignment’s more likely to extend the standoff. After all, encouraging Iran to accept greater curbs on its nuclear and missile programs for sanctions to be lifted becomes harder if the result is to sideline the people who might be willing to make the case for concessions.

While Iranian leaders have mostly remained united in opposing negotiations with the U.S. until it removes sanctions, two attempts by French President Emmanuel Macron to kickstart talks showed promise. The second foundered after a September attack on Saudi Arabian oil facilities, which Washington blamed on Iran, hardened positions.

‘Gravely Damaged’

“By undermining Rouhani’s most important achievement, Trump gravely damaged his presidency and popularity,” said Ali Vaez, senior analyst at the International Crisis Group. “What has been fatally damaged in the process is not just pro-engagement Iranian politicians, but the whole concept of engagement with the West.”

The 16,145 people registered to contest 290 seats in parliament represent the narrow spectrum of Iranian politics. But the most well-known number among Rouhani’s fiercest critics, supporters of an unflinching interpretation of Iran’s Islamic laws with careers defined by distrust of the U.S. and the wider West.

They include ex-mayor of Tehran and former military officer Mohammad-Bagher Qalibaf; Vahid Yaminpour, a TV personality; and legal scholar and cleric Hamid Rasaei.

The most notable reformists standing are Rouhani’s former top legal adviser Shahindokht Molaverdi, and the president’s son-in-law. The current record number of 14 women lawmakers is likely to drop.

Secretary of State Michael Pompeo on December 2 said the Trump administration’s reliance on sanctions to achieve goals in places like Iran and Venezuela had been “incredibly effective.” Tehran has fewer resources to conduct a regional “terror campaign,” he said.

Collision Course

Yet a lurch to the right in Iran risks emboldening the security services and their proxy forces in war zones such as Yemen and Syria, raising the chances of a confrontation, orchestrated or unplanned, with the U.S. just as its Gulf partners want to deescalate tensions.

And it could overwhelm the government with “monthly and even weekly interrogations of ministers and impeachment efforts,” said Geranmayeh. Targets will include Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh, one of Rouhani’s most effective technocrats who has longstanding links to reformers, and whom hardliners in parliament are currently trying to impeach.

The government had lost support before Trump exited the nuclear deal last year, for failing to deliver the jobs and better pay the accord promised. Other Iranians, dismayed over no progress in delivering greater social freedoms, lost patience.

As a U.S. ban on critical oil exports tipped the economy into recession, the government’s popularity dived.

Low Turnout

The slump is expected to reduce turnout in February, boosting hardliners whose supporters traditionally vote under instruction from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Mohammadali Abtahi, a reformist cleric jailed during unrest that followed 2009’s disputed presidential election, told Shargh newspaper that “unpopular” conservatives would “emerge as victorious only if turnout is low.”

He’s not the only moderate to speak out. In a statement read by supporters, former President Mohammad Khatami, whose words can’t be reported in Iran due to a ban, told a December 12 Tehran rally that the only alternative to an Islamic Republic that honored its original founding principles was a dictatorship.

Others present called on Khamenei to overhaul an opaque council able to disqualify election candidates with little accountability, as well as to avoid using decrees—such as the one that triggered November’s violence—to bypass parliamentary oversight.

As for Larijani, Iran’s former top nuclear negotiator may be taking a step back to consider a bid for the presidency. But much of that would depend on the fate of the nuclear deal and whether Trump himself wins another term next year.

Seething Unrest

For now, as he nears the end of his tenure, Larijani still has the task of refereeing a majority-moderate parliament that’s using whatever time it has left to amend the gasoline policy.

In Tehran, where an acrid smog hung over commuters, first-time voter Amirali, 20, dismissed the system as corrupt.

“Somebody comes along with the promise of a better future and people fall for their words,” he said, asking not to be identified due to the sensitivity of speaking to foreign media.

The spark for the protests was a surprise decision to hike gasoline prices and introduce rationing. Demonstrations swept through the cities of Tabriz, Isfahan and Mashhad, and then spread to Tehran as the city was cloaked by a sudden snowfall.

Unverified mobile-phone footage showed clashes between protesters and security forces. Authorities imposed an unprecedented internet blackout and it’s still not clear how many people were killed: death tolls range from an initial 12 reported by officials—a number that hasn’t been updated—to an estimate of more than 200 by Amnesty International.

The violence underscored moderates’ perilous position with less than two years left of Rouhani’s second and last term.

“The most important thing that brings people out to vote is hope,” said Zanganeh, in what could turn out to be a grim prophesy. “And the thing that drives them away is hopelessness.”

Photo: IRNA

Iran Nuclear Deal Parties Meet as Accord Nears Collapse

The remaining signatories to the faltering 2015 Iran nuclear deal will meet in Vienna on Friday with the survival of the landmark agreement at stake after Tehran vowed to continue to breach the deal's limits on its nuclear program.

Envoys from Britain, France, Germany, China, Russia and Iran will take part in the meeting, which is the first time the six parties will have gathered in this format since July.

Since May, Iran has taken a series of measures, including stepping up uranium enrichment, in breach of the 2015 deal, with another such move likely in early January.

Iran insists that under the agreement it has the right to take these measures in retaliation for the US's withdrawal from the deal in 2018 and reimposition of crippling sanctions.

Since last month, European members have in turn begun raising the possibility of triggering the so-called "dispute resolution mechanism" foreseen in the accord, which could lead to the resumption of UN sanctions on Iran.

On the eve of what was already likely to be a strained meeting, Britain, France and Germany accused Iran of developing nuclear-capable ballistic missiles, in a letter to the UN on Thursday.

Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif dismissed the allegation as "desperate falsehood".

However, despite the mounting tension observers say Britain, France and Germany are unlikely to trigger the dispute resolution mechanism on Friday when their diplomats attend the joint commission meeting chaired by senior EU official Helga-Maria Schmid.

Analysts say if UN sanctions are re-imposed and the deal falls apart, Iran could also withdraw from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT).

"It's not clear whether that's worth the benefit," Ali Vaez from the International Crisis Group told AFP.

But he warned the risk of the deal collapsing was increasing as Iran was "running out of measures that are easy to reverse and non-controversial".

"Both sides are locked into an escalatory cycle that is just very hard to imagine that they would step away from," he said.

Francois Nicoullaud, former French ambassador to Iran, also says tensions were expected to continue to rise.

"Maybe it won't be this time, but (the deal falling apart) will certainly be in the background of the discussions," Nicoullaud told AFP.

'No Breathing Space'

Iranian parliament speaker Ali Larijani warned Sunday that if European partners triggered the dispute mechanism, Tehran may "seriously reconsider" its commitments to the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which monitors the deal's implementation.

European efforts to shield Iran from the effects of US sanctions by creating a mechanism to carry on legitimate trade with the Islamic republic have borne little fruit, much to Tehran's frustration.

The EU is growing increasingly concerned by Tehran rowing back from its commitments.

The dispute resolution mechanism in the deal has numerous stages, but it can eventually culminate in the UN Security Council voting on whether Iran should still have relief from sanctions lifted under the deal.

In such a scenario, says Vaez, "we will have a major non-proliferation crisis on our hands in the sense that the Russians and the Chinese have already declared they would not recognize the return of (sanctions)".

Vaez said in the end the path to a diplomatic solution would depend on Washington's next moves and whether it would at least be willing to relax its attempts to prevent sales of Iranian oil, a vital source of income for the country.

"The remaining parties to the deal have proved incapable of providing Iran with any kind of breathing space," Vaez said.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said Wednesday that Tehran is willing to return to the negotiating table if the United States first drops sanctions.

Photo: IRNA

Iraq Likely Theater if US, Iran Tensions Worsen: Study

Iraq could bear the brunt if conflict intensifies between Iran and the United States, a think-tank study said Wednesday.

The International Crisis Group, which researches ways to prevent war, interviewed officials around the world including Iran for an extensive report on the state of the 2015 denuclearization accord between Tehran and major powers.

President Donald Trump has withdrawn the United States and ramped up economic pressure aimed at isolating Iran, although Europeans still back the accord negotiated under former president Barack Obama.

The International Crisis Group said that Iran would likely continue to comply with the deal, seeing itself as holding the moral high ground and capable of waiting out Trump, who faces re-election next year.

But the study said that Tehran's calculations could change if its oil exports, which stood at 3.8 million barrels a day in 2017, fall below 700,000, a level that could trigger hyper-inflation and intensify domestic protests which for now appear manageable.

If Iran decides to retaliate against the United States, the report said that Tehran may find its most attractive option to be to employ its proxies around the Middle East, a path that would be murky enough to avoid a strong European reaction.

The report quoted a senior Iranian national security official as saying that the likeliest theater was Iraq, where militias from the Shiite majority have close ties with Tehran. 

"Iraq is where we have experience, plausible deniability and the requisite capability to hit the US below the threshold that would prompt a direct retaliation," the official was quoted as saying.

Iran is also deeply involved in Syria and Lebanon, but the two countries are especially fragile and Tehran could lose its gains, the official said.

Iran has limited assets in Afghanistan, while stepping up support for Huthi rebels in Yemen would hurt regional rival Saudi Arabia more than the United States, the official said.

The Wall Street Journal reported Sunday that Trump's hawkish national security adviser, John Bolton, asked for military options to strike Iran after an Iranian-linked group launched a mortar attack in September on Baghdad's "Green Zone," the protected area where the US embassy is located. The US says its embassy was the target.

No one was hurt and demonstrators also ransacked the Iranian consulate in Basra during the wave of protests over economic conditions in Iraq.

Photo Credit: IRNA

Trump Sanctions Set to Bite Iran, But What Next?

Six months after President Donald Trump bolted from a nuclear deal on Iran, the United States from Monday will try to strangle the country's economy with sweeping sanctions, but doubts abound on how effective the campaign will be.

The United States has vowed to reduce sales of Iranian oil, the country's crucial export, as well as international banking transactions, snapping back sanctions lifted by Trump's predecessor as US president, Barack Obama.

But much has changed since the Obama administration targeted Iran's economy in 2012. Obama won broad, if at times begrudging, international support as he set a goal of bringing Iran to the table to end its nuclear program.

Iran—led by a more moderate president, Hassan Rouhani—has according to UN inspectors abided by the 2015 agreement which is still supported by European powers and Russia and China, which all signed the nuclear deal.

"This is not 2012 when the world was united behind sanctions against Iran. This is the Trump administration trying to force the rest of the world to go along with a policy that most countries do not accept," said Barbara Slavin, an Iran expert at the Washington-based Atlantic Council.

"The US has had some success in terms of frightening away major corporations. The sanctions hurt a lot. But Iran is still going to be able to sell oil," especially to China, she said.

The United States has accepted that it will need to issue waivers to countries that do not fully stop buying Iranian oil, with friends of the United States such as India and South Korea looking for sanctions exemptions, and Tehran may keep up clandestine sales.

The European Union has gone so far as to protect businesses that operate in Iran. It has announced plans for a legal framework through which firms can skirt US sanctions, although few major corporations have been eager to risk the wrath of penalties in the world's largest economy.

US Objective in Question

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has issued a list of demands for Iran that go well beyond the nuclear program that was the focus of Obama's deal.

He wants the Shiite clerical regime to withdraw from war-ravaged Syria, where it is a critical ally of President Bashar al-Assad, as well as to end longstanding support to regional militant movements Hezbollah and Hamas.

Pompeo has also insisted Iran cut off backing for Yemen's Huthi rebels who are facing a US-backed air campaign led by Saudi Arabia.

In a recent tweet Pompeo crowed that the International Monetary Fund is predicting a 3.6 percent contraction of Iran's economy next year.

"That's what happens when the ruling regime steals from its people and invests in Assad—instead of creating jobs for Iranians, they ruin the economy," he said.

But experts see no rapid turnaround from Iran's leaders—especially the military and clerical establishments, for whom resistance to the United States has been an article of faith since the 1979 Islamic revolution overthrew the pro-US shah.

"It's basically magical thinking. The Iranians have been able to continue their support to regional proxies and allies for 40 years despite economic pressure," said Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group.

He said the Trump administration believed that a constrained, struggling Iran would see its influence erode. But the final goal, he said, was unclear.

"I think the end-game depends on who you're asking. The president himself is interested in having a broader, better deal with the Iranians, but I believe that most of his national security team are interested in either destabilizing Iran or assuring a regime change in Tehran," Vaez said.

Trump's national security advisor, John Bolton, is a longstanding hawk with ties to Iran's armed, exiled opposition.

North Korea Model?

One European diplomat believed Trump was following his playbook on North Korea, with which he is negotiating only a year after threatening "fire and fury."

“It's the same war plan as with Kim Jong Un and North Korea—sanctions, maximum pressure and then ready to negotiate," he said.

The United States says it is exempting humanitarian goods from the sanctions, although Europeans say they have received no guidance on how to avoid penalties.

Another Western diplomat, speaking to AFP on condition of anonymity, said that Iran was more dependent on the outside world than the country's conservatives would like to think.

"In truth there are starts of a panic as there's beginning to be a shortage of medicine. We're heading back to the old war economy, which is tightly controlled."

Complicating Trump's effort, Saudi Arabia—Iran's regional rival which has long pressed Washington to get tough—is increasingly unpopular after the murder of a journalist, Jamal Khashoggi, in the kingdom's Istanbul consulate.

But Tehran has been winning few friends, with France and Denmark recently accusing the clerical state's intelligence agencies of plotting to attack Iranian opponents in Europe.

Photo Credit: IRNA

Trump Warns World Against Business With Iran As Sanctions Return

US President Donald Trump warned the world Tuesday against doing business with Iran as Washington reimposed "the most biting sanctions ever" on the Islamic republic, triggering a mix of anger, fear and defiance in Tehran.

Trump's May withdrawal from a landmark 2015 nuclear deal with Tehran had spooked investors and triggered a run on the Iranian rial long before the punishing sanctions went back into force. 

The newly reimposed sanctions, which target access to US banknotes and key industries such as cars and carpets, were unlikely to cause immediate economic turmoil. 

Iran's markets were actually relatively buoyant, with the rial strengthening by 20 percent since Sunday after the government relaxed foreign exchange rules and allowed unlimited, tax-free gold and currency imports. 

But the second tranche of sanctions, which kicks in on November 5 and targets Iran's vital oil sector, could be far more damaging—even if several key customers such as China, India and Turkey have refused to significantly cut their purchases.

"The Iran sanctions have officially been cast. These are the most biting sanctions ever imposed, and in November they ratchet up to yet another level," Trump wrote on Twitter.

"Anyone doing business with Iran will NOT be doing business with the United States. I am asking for WORLD PEACE, nothing less."

European governments—who signed the Iran nuclear deal along with Washington -- are infuriated by Trump's strategy that has prompted many of their large firms to leave Iran for fear of US penalties. 

Within hours of the sanctions taking effect, German carmaker Daimler said it had "suspended our already limited activities in Iran in accordance with the applicable sanctions."

Trump said Monday that he was open to new talks to reach a "more comprehensive deal" with Iran.

"We want to see a much broader retreat by Iran from their support for international terrorism, their belligerent military activity in the Middle East and their ballistic missile, nuclear-related programs," National Security Advisor John Bolton told Fox News.

"There's a lot going on here that Iran needs to be held accountable for."

But Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has dismissed the idea of talks while sanctions are in effect, and accused America of waging "psychological warfare. In Tehran, residents were on edge.

"I feel like my life is being destroyed," said one construction worker on the streets of the capital. "I can't afford to buy food, pay the rent."

'Not got this right'

The return of US sanctions left some of Washington's partners unimpressed. British Foreign Office Minister Alastair Burt said that the "Americans have really not got this right."

The nuclear deal was important "not only to the region's security but the world's security," he told the BBC.

Russia's foreign ministry said it was "deeply disappointed" by the return of sanctions, adding that it would do "everything necessary" to save the 2015 nuclear deal.

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif told reporters that the global reaction to Trump's move showed that the US was diplomatically isolated.

'Poison cup' 

Most Iranians see US hostility as a basic fact of life, so their frustration is largely directed at their own leaders for not handling the situation better.

"Prices are rising again, but the reason is government corruption, not US sanctions," said Ali, a 35-year-old decorator in Tehran.

Long-running discontent over high prices, unemployment, water shortages and the lack of political reform has sparked numerous protests over the past week, though verifiable information is scarce due to heavy reporting restrictions. 

Many hope and believe that Iran's leaders will "drink the poison cup" and negotiate with the US eventually.

There have been rumors that Trump and Rouhani could meet in New York in September on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly—though Rouhani reportedly rejected US overtures for a meeting at last year's event.

Iran's regional rivals Israel and Saudi Arabia have welcomed the tough new US policy.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hailed the renewed sanctions as "an important moment for Israel, for the US, for the region, for the whole world."

Iran's currency has lost around half its value since Trump announced the US would withdraw from the nuclear pact, but has surged since Sunday, following the arrest of the central bank's currency chief and new plans being announced.

The new rules mean foreign exchange bureaus will reopen after an attempt to fix the value of the rial in April backfired spectacularly, with corrupt traders making a fortune out of a mushrooming black market.

Ali Vaez, Iran project director for the International Crisis Group, told AFP that the sanctions would inflict "significant harm" on the Iranian economy.

"But this is not the first time that the Iranian leadership is dealing with sanctions," Vaez said.

"I doubt that in the next two years we would see the collapse of the government or the regime in Tehran."

Photo Credit: Wikicommons