Iran 'Strongly Rejects' US Chemical Weapons Accusations

Iran "strongly rejected" on Friday US accusations that it has a chemical weapons program and accused Washington of breaching its own commitments to the international watchdog.

The US allegations are the latest salvo against Iran from the administration of President Donald Trump, who earlier this year pulled out of a landmark 2015 nuclear deal between major powers and Tehran and reimposed crippling unilateral sanctions.

"The United States... has made, as is its habit, baseless accusations against the Islamic republic which we strongly reject," the foreign ministry said in a statement.

"Such incorrect and false accusations are due solely to enmity towards the Iranian nation and are intended to deflect international attention from its own broken commitments and continued support for the Zionist regime's chemical arsenal and for terrorist groups."

The US accused Iran on Thursday of failing to declare a chemical weapons program to the global watchdog in breach of international agreements.

US envoy Kenneth Ward told the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons in The Hague that Tehran was also seeking deadly nerve agents for offensive purposes.

Iran promised its delegation would provide the OPCW with a detailed reply and in turn accused the US of being the "only member state that has a chemical weapons arsenal and has, until now, not acted on its obligations to destroy it."

Iran is one of the few countries that has been attacked with chemical weapons since the end of World War I in 1918.

Chemical weapons used by Saddam Hussein's Iraq during its 1980-88 war with Iran killed tens of thousands of Iranian soldiers and civilians.

Iran has expressed strong opposition ever since to the use or possession of chemical weapons by any country.

Photo Credit: IRNA

Iran Says No Trust in Trump's US for New Nuclear Talks

Iran sees no point in fresh nuclear talks with the US without guarantees it will not renege on any deal made, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said on Thursday.

US President Donald Trump pulled out of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in May, branding the deal to restrict Iran's nuclear work a"disaster.”

Iran continues to stick to the terms of the deal, and European nations also continue to support it and engage with Iran. 

But Zarif said that without guarantees, Trump's US could not be trusted for any further talks.

"If we are to make an agreement with the United States, what is the guarantee that the agreement will last after the flight? You remember Canada?" he said, referring to Trump's withdrawal of his signature from a G7 summit closing statement in June after his plane left host Canada.

"How are we to be confident that the signature stays on the paper?" Zarif told the MED Dialogues conference in Rome. 

Sweeping new American sanctions against Iran, which came into effect on November 5, have raised fears about whether the deal can survive.

Iran has said the future of the JCPOA would be called into question if it no longer received the economic benefits of the deal. 

The deal envisaged sanctions on Iran being lifted in return for it accepting IAEA inspections and limits on its nuclear activities. 

"We spent two-and-a-half years, this is not a two-page document, this is not a picture opportunity. This is a 150-page document," Zarif said of the deal, suggesting that Trump's objection was based on his "hatred" for former president Barack Obama.

"Why should we resume another talk just because somebody doesn't like it, just because somebody hates his predecessor? That's not the reason you engage in diplomacy, diplomacy is a serious game and we are ready for a serious game."

The remaining five signatories to the JCPOA—Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia—have backed an EU effort to set up a special payment system in an attempt to continue trade and business ties with Iran. 

However, some European companies have already pulled out of Iran. Earlier this month senior EU officials admitted that the mechanism was proving difficult to set up.

Photo Credit: Italian Foreign Ministry

Iran Failed to Declare Chemical Weapons: US

The United States accused Iran on Thursday of failing to declare a toxic arms programme to the global chemical warfare watchdog, in breach of international agreements.

US envoy Kenneth Ward told the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) in The Hague that Tehran was also seeking deadly nerve agents for "offensive purposes.”

Tehran did not immediately respond to the accusations, which add to tensions with Washington over Iran's nuclear program, terrorism, and the war in Syria.

"The United States has had longstanding concerns that Iran maintains a chemical weapons program that it failed to declare to the OPCW," ambassador Ward told a five-yearly meeting on the body's future. 

"The US is also concerned that Iran is pursuing central nervous system-acting chemicals for offensive purposes." 

Ward said Iran had failed to declare the transfer of chemical-filled shells sent to Libya in the 1980s despite an appeal by the OPCW to identify their origin. They were found after the death of Libyan leader Moamer Kadhafi in 2011.

"They were clearly of Iranian origin as evidenced by the farsi writing on the boxes containing the artillery shells," he said.

Iran had also failed to declare a "chemical weapons filling capability" despite the discovery of toxic shells and bombs in Libya and also in Iraq.

Finally, Iran had failed to declare riot control agents despite having marketed them at defence expos, he added.

The new chemical warfare allegations come amid growing pressure on Iran from President Donald Trump, who has withdrawn from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and introduced several rounds of unilateral US sanctions.

Ward accused Iran and its ally Russia of "enabling" the use of chemical weapons by the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad "while pursuing their own chemical weapons programs".

Western powers have accused Russia of carrying out an attack using an undeclared Soviet-era nerve agent on former double agent Sergei Skripal in the British town of Salisbury in March.

Member states at the OPCW this week rejected attempts by Russia to block the watchdog's new powers to identify the perpetrators of chemical attacks in Syria and elsewhere.

Previously the OPCW—charged with enforcing the 1997 Chemical Weapons Convention under which all toxic arms will be destroyed—was only able to confirm the use of chemical weapons without assigning blame. 

Photo Credit: OPCW

US Sanctions Iran for Shipping Oil to Syria

The US slapped fresh sanctions on Iran Tuesday, accusing it of creating a complex web of Russian cut-out companies and Syrian intermediaries to ship oil to Damascus, which in turn bankrolled Hezbollah and Hamas.   

The US considers both Hezbollah, a powerful Lebanese militia, and Hamas, the Palestinian Islamist group that controls the Gaza Strip, to be terrorist organizations.

The US Treasury said in a statement that Tehran, "working with Russian companies, provides millions of barrels of oil to the Syrian government" of President Bashar al-Assad.  

"The Assad regime, in turn, facilitates the movement of hundreds of millions of US dollars to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force for onward transfer to Hamas and Hezbollah," it said.

The new sanctions also target a Syrian national, Mohamed Alchwicki and his Russia-based company, Global Vision Group. He is accused of playing a central role both in the transfer of oil to Syria and the funneling of money to the militant groups. 

The US said his company had illegally received transfers of funds from the Iranian Central Bank via a set of complex transactions.

Intermediary firms involved in the plot to obscure the real destinations of the oil and the money included a subsidiary of the Russian Ministry of Energy, according to the statement.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo warned on Twitter that there were "grave consequences for anyone shipping oil to Syria, or trying to evade US sanctions on the Islamic Republic's terrorist activities."

He added that Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei "should decide if spending the Iranian people's money on the Iranian people is more important than investing schemes to fund Assad, Hezbollah, Hamas and other terrorists." 

Photo Credit: Wikicommons

Danish Envoy Returns to Iran After Foiled Assassination Plot

Denmark said Tuesday its ambassador would return to Iran this week, three weeks after he was recalled over Copenhagen's assertion that Tehran tried to kill three Iranian dissidents on Danish soil.

"The ambassador is going back to Iran on Thursday," Danish foreign ministry spokeswoman Anne Moller told AFP.

Denmark has accused Tehran of plotting an "attack" against three Iranians believed to be members of the Arab Struggle Movement for the Liberation of Ahvaz (ASMLA) who live in Denmark.

Tehran blames ASMLA, which it calls a terrorist organization, for an attack on a military parade in the Iranian city of Ahvaz on September 22, spraying the crowd with gunfire and killing 24 people.

Iran has rejected the Danish allegations, claiming Tehran's enemies are conspiring to ruin its relations with Europe.

Copenhagen has been consulting with its European allies about possible sanctions against Tehran.

"In the meeting yesterday (Monday), we received a lot of support. We are still looking at what kind of sanctions can be applied to Iran," Moller said.

"A new phase has begun to counter Iran's unacceptable behavior. Danish diplomacy will focus heavily on supporting these efforts in European capitals, in Brussels and in Tehran," a foreign ministry statement said.

Photo Credit: Danish MFA

Iran Judiciary Criticizes Money Laundering Claims

Iran's judiciary chief said Monday that government officials must not make accusations of vast money-laundering operations by powerful institutions, which could be exploited by the enemy.

The criticism followed statements by Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif to the Khabar Online news agency last week in which he said: "Money laundering is a reality in our country, and a lot of people are benefitting from it."

Zarif said "thousands of billions" of rials were being laundered by unnamed organizations in Iran, and that these groups were behind efforts to block new laws against money laundering and terrorist financing.

"If there is huge money laundering in the country, why did you not report this to the judiciary?" said Sadegh Larijani, judiciary chief, in a speech on Monday, according to the semi-official ISNA news agency.

"The enemy's best tool is economic pressure... In such a situation officials are expected not to make two-sided statements that could be misused by the enemy," he added, without naming Zarif.

The government introduced four new laws this year aimed at meeting demands set by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), which monitors global efforts to counter money laundering and terrorist financing.

Conservatives groups have attacked the bills, saying they would undermine Iran's ability to support allied militant groups in the region, such as Lebanon's Hezbollah.

But Zarif said wealthy groups were also involved because they opposed greater financial transparency.

"There are special interests behind some of these concerns and propaganda," 
he said.

"I don't aim to pin this to any certain organization, but those places that do launder thousands of billions are certainly financially capable of spending a few hundred billion on propaganda and psychological operations in the country," he added.

Larijani hit back on Monday, saying: "The authorities should not say things that drop like a dagger into the heart of the system."

Iran is alone with North Korea on the FATF blacklist, but the Paris-based organization has suspended counter-measures since June 2017 while it works on reforms.

One bill on the mechanics of monitoring and preventing terrorist financing was signed into law in August.

The remaining three have been approved by parliament but have been held up by higher authorities that oversee legislation.

Photo Credit: IRNA

Iran to Cap Petrol Sales to Curb Smuggling

Iran is reintroducing fuel cards that will cap petrol purchases in a bid to combat rampant smuggling, state media reported on Tuesday.

Smuggling has boomed in recent months as the rial has plummeted against the dollar in the face of the reimposition of crippling US sanctions following Washington's withdrawal from a landmark 2015 nuclear deal between major powers and Tehran. 

The Islamic republic has some of the most heavily subsidized petrol in the world, with a pump price of around USD 0.08 per litre (less than two US cents per gallon).

Low fuel prices have led to high consumption, with Iran's 80 million population buying an average of 90 million litres (20 million gallons) per day, according to state news agency IRNA. 

They have also fueled very high levels of smuggling—estimated at around 10 to 20 million liters (2.2 million - 4.5 million gallons) per day, IRNA said. 

Much of it heads across the border to Pakistan, where petrol costs 10 times, and diesel around 40 times, as much as in Iran.  

Fuel cards were first introduced in 2007 with a view to reforming the expensive subsidies system. High limits were set—180 litres (40 gallons) per day for the average driver—since the focus was on curbing large-scale smuggling.

The state-run National Iranian Oil Products Distribution Company said drivers would have three weeks to register for the new electronic cards setting a daily limit on petrol purchases. 

The limit has not yet been set, but was introduced "in order to prevent fuel smuggling," the firm said in a statement on Monday.

It said the return to a card system "does not mean there will be fuel rationing and price hikes."

But Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh has said a price increase may be necessary in the coming year—a move that remains highly sensitive in a country that boasts the world's second-largest reserves of gas and fourth-largest of oil.

Photo Credit: IRNA

EU to Consider Sanctions on Iran for Failed Attack Plots

EU foreign ministers on Monday agreed to examine possible sanctions against Iran over two foiled attacks in Europe blamed on Iranian intelligence, as demands grow for tough action against Tehran.

France has hit two suspected Iranian agents with asset freezes over a plot to bomb a rally near Paris, while Denmark has called for a coordinated EU response to a foiled murder bid on its soil.

The move came as 150 MEPs slammed the bloc's "silence" over the plots as well as human rights abuse in Iran and called for steps to hold Tehran to account.

Up to now the EU has trod cautiously on Iran as it seeks to save the beleaguered nuclear deal with Tehran, after the US withdrew from it earlier this year and reimposed sanctions.

Copenhagen has been consulting EU partners about economic sanctions against Tehran after Danish intelligence accused Iran of planning to murder three Iranian dissidents in Denmark.

EU foreign ministers meeting in Brussels discussed the incident and decided to press ahead with work on sanctions.

"What happened (in Denmark) was completely unacceptable and this was clearly stated by all of us," EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini told reporters.

"The council will take forward some work to explore appropriate targeted responses in light of what has happened in Danish territory."

The measures could include adopting at EU level the sanctions France imposed last month on two suspected Iranian agents and others from Iran's ministry of intelligence and security.

France's security services concluded that the head of operations at the Iranian intelligence ministry had ordered a plot to bomb a rally of the People's Mujahedeen of Iran (MEK) opposition group in a suburb of Paris in June.

Iran has been blamed in the past for attacks in countries as far afield as Argentina, India and Thailand, and French officials say Tehran is also suspected of carrying out "several" assassinations of opposition figures in Europe since 2015.

Photo Credit: Wikicommons

Societe Generale Fined $1.3 Bn for US Sanctions Violations

US officials fined Societe Generale USD 1.3 billion after charging the French bank with violating US sanctions on Cuba, Iran and other countries in a criminal settlement unveiled Monday.

The financial penalty is the second largest ever on a financial institution for violating US sanctions, said the Department of Justice, which was joined in the action by the Federal Reserve, US Treasury Department and New York authorities.

"Today, Societe Generale has admitted its willful violations of US sanctions laws—and longtime concealment of those violations—which resulted in billions of dollars of illicit funds flowing through the US financial system," said Geoffrey Berman, US Attorney for the Southern District of New York, outlining terms of a three-year probation period for the French bank under a deferred prosecution agreement.

"Other banks should take heed: Enforcement of US sanctions laws is, and will continue to be, a top priority of this office and our partner agencies."

The bank from 2004 through 2010 engaged in more than 2,500 Cuba-related transactions through US financial institutions, involving close to $13 billion that should have been blocked or stopped for investigation under US sanctions, the Justice Department said.

Societe Generale officials avoided detection by "making inaccurate or incomplete" notations on messages and "engaged in a deliberate practice of concealing the Cuban nexus of US dollar payments," the department said in a statement.

Federal prosecutors said senior bank officials were aware that the transactions breached US law but did not disclose the matter to US authorities. The probe was triggered by the blocking by other US financial institutions in 2012 of two transactions that Societe Generale processed on behalf of a Sudanese sanctioned entity, according to the Justice Department.

The New York Department of Financial Services, another agency involved in the settlement, also hit Societe General for undertaking transactions to Iran in an "improperly, non-transparent manner" involving more than USD 12.5 billion.

Societe Generale said it had already hired additional compliance officers, enhanced training and reorganized the teams for sanctions and embargoes compliance. The bank announced in September that it expected the fine and had set aside funds to pay it.

"We acknowledge and regret the shortcomings that were identified in these settlements and have cooperated with the US authorities to resolve these matters," said Societe Generale Chief Executive Frederic Oudea.

"We aim to meet the highest standards of compliance and ethics, in the best interest of our clients and of all of our stakeholders."

Photo Credit: Wikicommons

Cuba Eyes EU's Planned Iran Sanctions-Busting System

Cuba hopes a special payment system the EU is creating to get round US sanctions on Iran will help it sidestep its own Washington-imposed trade embargo, a senior official told AFP on Monday.

Brussels is working on a "special purpose vehicle" (SPV)—a system for clearing payments to Iran—-as it seeks to keep trade flowing despite Washington reimposing sanctions after ditching the 2015 nuclear deal with Tehran.

The EU is desperate to keep the nuclear deal alive and hopes the SPV will persuade Tehran to stay on board by giving companies a way of trading with Iran without fear of US sanctions.

The SPV was announced in September but has made little headway, with several countries saying they will not host it, fearful of repercussions from the administration of US President Donald Trump.

Nevertheless, senior Cuban foreign ministry official Rodolfo Reyes told AFP after talks with EU officials that Havana was interested in the project.

"There was a mention of this instrument and we of course also raised the interest that we would have in any solution of this kind that would allow European companies to become increasingly involved in foreign investment and bilateral trade with Cuba," Reyes told AFP.

Despite a thawing of ties under Trump's predecessor Barack Obama, the US still has a sweeping economic embargo in force against Cuba that dates back to the 1960s.

The SPV would in theory allow Iran to keep selling oil and European companies to continue doing business in the country despite the US sanctions.

But it has proved difficult to get the project moving and some analysts doubt it would prove to be effective in any event.

Many major international companies have announced they are pulling out of Iran, and earlier this month the US announced a fresh set of sanctions aimed at cutting off Iran's banks from international finance and significantly cutting its oil exports

Photo Credit: Wikicommons

Impeached Economy Minister to Head Iran Oil Firm

Iran's former economy minister, impeached less than three months ago, will head the national oil company as it works to evade renewed US sanctions, local media reported Monday.

Masoud Karbasian, 67, was impeached by parliament on August 26 after only a year in the job, over his handling of the country's economic downturn.

In a short statement run by the state-run Iran newspaper Monday, he vowed to "use four decades of experience... to overcome the sanctions crisis."

Karbasian takes over the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) at a crucial moment following the US oil embargo that was reimposed on November 5.

Although he kept a very low profile during his tenure as economy minister, he was praised in the reformist Sazandegi newspaper on Monday for his "anti-corruption" stance—particularly during an earlier stint as head of customs. 

But there was some confusion over his appointment, since he is in breach of a new law barring anyone over 60—the age of retirement—from public office. 

Parliament passed the law in September, and it was used to remove outgoing NIOC head Ali Kardor, who is three years younger than Karbasian, according to several newspapers.

The Iran daily said Karbasian's age was overlooked due to "sanctions and the gravity of sustaining oil sales.”

The US reimposed sanctions on Iran after deciding in May to abandon a landmark multi-lateral deal signed in 2015 over the Islamic Republic's nuclear program. 

Temporary exemptions have been granted to several key customers of Iran's oil, including China and India. 

But Iranian authorities are seeking alternative and clandestine methods to keep oil flowing as Washington remains determined to eventually force its exports down to zero.

The unaffiliated Haft-e Sobh newspaper described the new NIOC chief as "special agent: Masoud Karbasian". 

It said his appointment was approved by the Council for Special Economic Measures, set up during the previous sanctions period between 2010 and 2015, headed by President Hassan Rouhani, and whose decisions are taken in consultation with supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Photo Credit: IRNA

Four Arrested in Iran Sugar Protests

Four people were arrested in southwestern Iran on Sunday as locals joined striking sugar workers in mounting protests over unpaid wages and alleged criminal activity by managers, the official IRNA news agency said.

Protests by workers from the Haft Tapeh sugar company in Shush, a city in Khuzestan province, have been building in recent days. 

IRNA said locals had joined the demonstrations on Sunday, without giving numbers. 

Those arrested included two local workers' representatives and a female reporter, it added. 

Iran has seen multiple strikes and protests in recent months over working conditions and unpaid wages in a range of sectors, including steel, education, mining and transport.

Haft Tapeh, which employs about 4,000 people, has been hit with multiple protests over mismanagement and alleged criminality since the firm was privatised in 2016.

The head of Iran's privatization organization Mir Ali Ashraf Pouri-Hosseini said Sunday that several board members had been arrested "over forex issues and other ambiguities,” according to the Hamshahri newspaper.

Haft Tapeh's managing director is "on the run", lawmaker Hossein Naghavi-Hosseini said following a meeting with the judiciary, according to IRNA.

There were reports the government was preparing to pay two months of delayed wages, but workers remained sceptical.

"For years we have repeatedly heard officials saying that our demands have been met but nothing has happened. We will continue our gatherings until it happens," an unnamed protester told the semi-official ILNA news agency. 

Photo Credit: Citizen Journalist

Iraq President Visits Iran

Iraq's new President Barham Saleh made his first official visit to neighbouring Iran on Saturday, calling for "a new order in the region.”

Saleh met his counterpart Hassan Rouhani to discuss trade, transport links and efforts to tackle dust pollution that plagues areas on both sides of the border. 

"It is now time for a new order in the region that would meet the interests of all countries in it," Saleh told a Tehran news conference, according to a translation provided by Iran's state broadcaster. 

"We believe Iran has an important role to play in this new order," he added.

Saleh, a 58-year-old moderate Kurd, was elected last month to the largely ceremonial role of president. 

Rouhani said the two countries aimed to boost trade from USD 12 billion to USD 20 billion. 

"Security and stability in the whole region is to everyone's benefit. We do not need any foreign interference in the region," Rouhani said. 

Iran has been highly influential in Iraq since the toppling of Saddam Hussein in 2003, and was a key partner in pushing back the Islamic State group in recent years. 

But Iran has also been blamed for factionalism and poor governance in Iraq and its consulate in the southern city of Basra was burnt to the ground during violent protests earlier this year.

Photo Credit: IRNA

British Foreign Minister Visits Iran for Nuclear Talks

British Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt was to visit Iran for the first time on Monday for talks about the nuclear deal and freeing UK nationals held in Iranian jails.

Iran has been abiding by the terms of its nuclear deal with global powers, the latest report from the UN atomic watchdog indicated last week, days after fresh US sanctions hit the country.

US President Donald Trump has dramatically increased pressure on Tehran, withdrawing from an international agreement aimed at ending its nuclear program and introducing several rounds of unilateral sanctions.

Hunt's visit is the first by a Western foreign minister since the United States withdrew from the nuclear deal.

"The Iran nuclear deal remains a vital component of stability in the Middle East by eliminating the threat of a nuclearized Iran," Hunt said, in a statement issued in London.

"It needs 100-percent compliance though to survive. We will stick to our side of the bargain as long as Iran does.

"But we also need to see an end to destabilizing activity by Iran in the rest of the region if we are going to tackle the root causes of the challenges the region faces."

Hunt was to meet Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif for talks on European efforts to maintain relief from nuclear-related sanctions.

Hunt was also due to discuss Iran's role in the conflicts in Syria and Yemen, and the ongoing cases of detained British-Iranian dual nationals.

One notable case is that of Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, who is serving a five-year jail sentence for alleged sedition.

"More than anything, we must see those innocent British-Iranian dual nationals imprisoned in Iran returned to their families in Britain," he said. 

"I have just heard too many heartbreaking stories from families who have been forced to endure a terrible separation.

"So I arrive in Iran with a clear message for the country's leaders: putting innocent people in prison cannot and must not be used as a tool of diplomatic leverage."

On Yemen, Hunt was to stress concerns at reports that Iran has supplied ballistic missiles and weapons to the Huthi rebels, his ministry said.

Photo Credit: IRNA

Tehran Gets Third Mayor in 18 Months

Tehran city council on Tuesday elected Pirouz Hanachi, a little-known technocrat, to the politically sensitive post of mayor that has in the past led to Iran's presidency, state television reported.

Hanachi is the third mayor of Tehran to be elected by the city council since reformists swept to power in local polls in May 2017.

The 54-year-old Hanachi was a deputy mayor after the reformists took office in August 2017, having previously served as deputy minister at the roads and urban development ministry.

The interior ministry has to confirm his election, a mostly procedural process.

The reformists have promised transparency in running the city following corruption charges against their conservative rivals who controlled the Tehran council for 14 years.

The post of mayor has changed hands three times in 18 months, starting with Mohammad Ali Najafi who resigned officially on medical grounds amid reports he had been threatened with arrest by the prosecutor's office.

His successor, Mohammad Ali Afshani, a retiree, now has to step down by December 6 after parliament passed a law banning retirees from holding official posts.

The post served as a political springboard for conservative hardliner Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran's president between 2005 and 2013, although fellow incumbent Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf was unsuccessful in his bids for the presidency.

Despite winning the highest number of votes in last year's polls, Mohsen Hashemi Rafsanjani, son of late ex-president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, has repeatedly tried but failed to be elected mayor.

Photo Credit: IRNA

Iran Sanctions Herald Energy Trouble for Caucasus Nations

This article has been republished with permission from Eurasianet.

The resumption of wide-ranging American sanctions on Iran promises economic uncertainty for the Islamic Republic’s neighbors in the Caucasus: Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia.

Washington's goal of reducing Iran's oil exports to zero will not directly impact any of three Caucasus states, as none of them imports Iranian crude. All three, however, have to various extents relied on Iran for natural gas, and stand to be affected—if only by uncertainty until the exact scope of the sanctions becomes clearer.

U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton recently visited all three countries to try to shore up support for Washington’s efforts to isolate Tehran, though his results were inconclusive. When Washington imposed the new round of sanctions on November 5 it exempted eight countries, including neighboring Turkey, but none of the Caucasus states were spared.

As a major exporter of both crude oil and natural gas, and a sometime importer of Iranian gas, Azerbaijan's position is most complex.

Azerbaijan shares long land and maritime borders with Iran, as well as ownership of a number of undeveloped Caspian oil and gas fields subject to a joint development agreement signed in March this year.

Development of those fields is now unlikely to proceed, but other joint ventures have advanced beyond the point where even Washington can impose a halt.

Azerbaijan's main gas field, Shah Deniz, is being developed by a consortium led by UK oil giant BP, but in which Iran's national oil company, NIOC, holds a 10 percent stake.

Shah Deniz is currently the only source of gas for the long-planned, EU-backed Southern Gas Corridor (SGC), aimed at lessening Europe’s dependence on Russian energy.

Already in August, Washington made the position of Shah Deniz and the SGC project clear when the Treasury Department granted a permanent waiver from Iran-related sanctions for "the development of natural gas and the construction and operation of a pipeline to transport natural gas from Azerbaijan to Turkey and Europe."

That concession means that neither BP, the Azerbaijani state oil company SOCAR, nor the other three shareholders will face sanctions related to that project.

Azerbaijan also stands potentially to benefit from any increase in global oil prices caused by the halting of Iranian exports. That uncertainty also would lead to an increase in natural gas prices, which are for the most part indexed to oil prices. 

"Azerbaijan may well reap some secondary benefits from U.S. sanctions on Iran, since it stands to gain if oil prices increase as a result of heightened tensions in the Persian Gulf," Caspian energy analyst and Atlantic Council fellow John Roberts told Eurasianet, though he cautioned that any potential benefits are unpredictable as they rely on factors beyond Baku's control.

Roberts added that Azerbaijan's position is further complicated by its position as an importer of natural gas from Iran.

Azerbaijan imports small volumes of Iranian gas into its exclave of Nakhchivan for local consumption. Also, in recent years, gas from Turkmenistan has transited via Iran into mainland Azerbaijan to supplement its own production and to meet export commitments to Georgia, which is expected to import around 2.7 billion cubic meters of gas from Azerbaijan this year.

SOCAR spokesman Ibrahim Ahmadov told Eurasianet that the company’s gas imports via Iran have now stopped thanks to increased domestic production. 

"A big part of the imported gas was used to fill our gas storage during summer which is then re-exported in winter when there is higher demand," Ahmadov said. With more than 3 billion cubic meters currently in storage, and further imports due from Russia before the end of the year, SOCAR doesn't anticipate shortages. "There should be no problems with the gas supply in Georgia," Ahmadov said.

Sandwiched between Iran and Armenia, and with a tiny outlet to Turkey, Nakhchivan's geography limits its alternatives. 

An agreement with Ankara for a pipeline link to bring gas into Nakhchivan from Turkey was signed in 2010, but to date no pipeline has been laid, leaving the exclave still dependent directly on swap arrangements with Iran.

Such barter deals would not necessarily put Baku in breach of the U.S. sanctions. Ahmadov confirmed that SOCAR is “not planning any payment-based transactions with Iran in the near future.”

If Azerbaijan's gas exports to Georgia will indeed be unaffected, then Georgia – which with its Black Sea coast has no need to import Iranian petroleum products – should be little troubled by the U.S. sanctions.

Few Options for Armenia

The same, though, cannot be said for Armenia, whose landlocked geography and regional political isolation leave it few options.  

With few natural resources of its own, and still getting over 40 percent of its power supply from the aging Metsamor nuclear power plant, Armenia has become increasingly dependent on imported gas to meet its energy needs.

The bulk of Armenia’s gas is imported from Russia (via Georgia), but Yerevan also imported about 400 million cubic meters of gas from Iran in 2017, and sends Iran power in exchange. In late 2017 an agreement was announced for Armenia to boost Iran gas imports by up to 25 percent, and to increase power exports by a similar amount.

The status of that agreement and of existing Iranian gas exports to Armenia is currently unclear.

On November 6, Armenian foreign ministry spokesperson Anna A. Naghdalyan tweeted that her ministry was closely monitoring developments. "A comprehensive examination of the effects the new sanctions will have on Armenia is ongoing," she said. She did not respond by press time to queries from Eurasianet.

Armenia's position is further complicated by the fact that much of its gas pipeline network is owned by Russia's Gazprom. The two have long bickered over the price Gazprom charges for the gas it supplies.

Forcing Yerevan to abandon Iranian imports will thus leave it more dependent on Russia, and in a far weaker bargaining position. 

Photo Credit: BP

Austria Says Won't Host Iran Sanctions-Busting Payments System

Austria has rejected hosting a special payment system designed to help EU countries trade with Iran despite US sanctions, the Austrian foreign ministry said Tuesday.

"We were asked if Austria would be prepared in principle to host this special purpose vehicle," foreign ministry spokesman Peter Guschelbauer said.

But after studying the idea "very closely", the Austrian government "came to the conclusion that at the moment we are not in a position to host this vehicle," Guschelbauer told the Austrian APA agency.

The Bloomberg agency reported that Austria had been approached to be the venue for the vehicle after Belgium and Luxembourg had already turned down the idea of hosting it.

"There are lots of unanswered technical questions" about the "effectiveness of this setup," Guschelbauer added.

Austria supported the principle of the vehicle, he said, "but of course it has to be set up in a way that fulfils its purpose".

Last week the US announced a fresh raft of sanctions, the latest tranche of such measures since May when US President Donald Trump dramatically withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

The US sanctions aim to cut off Iran's banks from international finance and significantly cut its oil exports.

Since May, the remaining five signatories to the JCPOA—Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia—have been exploring ways to keep the deal alive.

As part of those efforts the EU has floated the idea of the special purpose vehicle, which would in theory allow Iran to keep selling oil and European companies to continue doing business in the country despite the US sanctions.

However, details of the scheme have remained vague.

The Austrian capital Vienna is the headquarters of several international organizations, including several arms of the UN and OPEC, and hosted the negotiations which resulted in the JCPOA.

On Monday the UN atomic watchdog the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said in its latest report that Iran was still abiding by the terms of the deal.

Photo Credit: IRNA

Iran Sticking to Nuclear Deal Conditions: IAEA

Iran has been abiding by the terms of its nuclear deal with global powers, the latest report from the UN atomic watchdog indicated Monday, days after fresh US sanctions hit the country.

The International Atomic Energy Agency's latest report showed that as of early November, Iran had been complying with the restrictions to its nuclear program laid down in the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

Sweeping new American sanctions against Iran, which came into effect on 5 November, have raised fears about whether the deal can survive.

Some parts of the fieldwork in the report took place before the sanctions came into effect, but a senior diplomat with knowledge of the situation said there was "nothing that indicates that... cooperation from Iran or its attitude has changed since 5 November".

The report said that as of November 4, Iran's stockpiles of low-enriched uranium stood at 149.4kg, 10kg up from the time of its last report in August.

However, this is still well within the limits set by the JCPOA.

The agency repeated language which has appeared in two previous reports emphasizing the importance of "timely and proactive cooperation in providing such access" on Iran's part.

However, the senior diplomat suggested that this was meant less as an admonition to Iran than as encouragement to maintain the current level of cooperation.

'Face Value'

The report makes no mention of recent claims made by Israeli Prime Minster Benjamin Netanyahu that Iran was harboring a secret atomic warehouse.

The latest American sanctions aim to cut off Iran's banks from international finance and significantly cut its oil exports.

Those have already fallen by up to one million barrels a day since May, when US President Donald Trump withdrew from the JCPOA, branding it a "disaster.”

Iran's economy was already reeling from the effect of US sanctions imposed earlier in the year. On Friday US National Security Advisor John Bolton warned that more sanctions were possible.

Iran has said the future of the JCPOA would be called into question if it no longer received the economic benefits of the deal.

The deal envisaged sanctions on Iran being lifted in return for it accepting IAEA inspections and limits on its nuclear activities.

The remaining five signatories to the JCPOA—Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia—have backed an EU effort to set up a special payment system in an attempt to continue trade and business ties with Iran.

However, some European companies have already pulled out of Iran. Earlier this month senior EU officials admitted that the mechanism was proving difficult to set up.

Photo Credit: IAEA

US's Bolton Says More Sanctions Likely on Iran

US National Security Advisor John Bolton said Friday that more sanctions were possible on Iran just days after a new round of measures touted as the most punishing ever on Tehran entered into force.

Bolton said two rounds of unilateral US sanctions introduced by President Donald Trump in August and most recently on Monday had had a "quite significant" effect on the Iranian economy and the country's actions abroad.

"I think that you're going to see even more sanctions coming into play over time and much tighter enforcement of the sanctions," Bolton told reporters in Paris.

Asked what would be the target of the sanctions, he replied, "There are other things we can do in the terrorism and counterterrorism area."

The International Monetary Fund forecasts that the sanctions will cause Iran's economy to contract 1.5 percent this year and 3.6 percent next year—pain that Trump has boasted about.

“We've seen indications that it has affected their belligerent activity in Iraq, Syria and Yemen. Not enough yet, but it's beginning to have that effect," Bolton said.

"We've seen a continuation and exacerbation of political discontent inside Iran. That opposition continues to manifest itself. Economically the Iranian currency is going through the floor, inflation has quadrupled and the country is clearly in recession."

He said "the objective is still to drive Iranians exports of oil to zero" despite waivers given to the biggest buyers of Iranian oil, including China, India and South Korea. 

"It's with some satisfaction that I noticed today the price of oil is down. We have worked with the Saudis, the Emiratis, and other producers to make sure production is up so that historic buyers of Iranian oil are not disadvantaged," he added.

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Iran Celebs Launch Petition Against US Sanctions

Iranian celebrities including Oscar-winning film director Asghar Farhadi and Grammy winner Kayhan Kalhor have launched a petition condemning US sanctions on Tehran and warning of the impact on ordinary people.

"Once again, the United States has imposed sanctions against Iran... Every Iranian will personally pay the price," reads the petition, named "Voices Against Sanctions" and posted on change.org on Thursday.

A last tranche of US sanctions were reimposed on Monday following the decision by US President Donald Trump to pull out of the 2015 nuclear deal earlier this year.

"Politicians will come and go, but the fallout from their disastrous decisions will be a nightmare for generations to come," said the petition, which had picked up nearly 5,000 signatures by Friday. 

It was signed by Iranian filmmakers, musicians, activists and lawyers.

Farhadi has received two Academy Awards for Best Foreign Language Film, while musician Kalhor, a virtuoso on the kamancheh (spiked fiddle), won a Grammy in 2017.

Photo Credit: IRNA